저자: JamieDimon발언인용 · 외국인
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JP모건 CEO 디몬의 주주서한을 소개. AI는 인터넷·증기기관급 변혁으로 평가되나 주식시장 AI 과열은 경계. 인플레 요인(재정지출·재무장·공급망 재편·에너지)이 아직 남아 있다고 봄. 연착륙 확률은 시장이 70~80% 반영하나 더 낮다는 견해. 장기금리 6% 이상 시 은행·레버리지 기업·상업용 부동산 스트레스 우려. 지정학 리스크 강조. 출연자들은 AI 기술은 긍정적이나 시장은 낙관 쏠림이라 경계.
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yeah Jamie Diamond he's um he's an interesting guy to follow or to keep up with or to to listen to because you know we we we listen to investors like Warren Buffett or late Charlie Munger or Mish p and because they're they're you know putting their money to work but Jim's a little bit different I still listen to what he has to say but in a different capacity he's an interesting one because he is obviously the CEO of JP Morgan uh and has been since 2006 um and JB Morgan is America's largest bank it's got $3.4 trillion in assets so he's a very uh import he's I don't know if he's an important figure in the economy but he's someone that will see everything he he's privy to a lot of information and he analyzes a lot of information about the economy um so it's a very interesting read um it's a long letter so I'm really going to condense this um there were a few themes in his letter uh the first one that he uh decided to address was uh AI um so he said while we do not know uh the full effect or the precise rate at which AI will change our business or how it will affect society at large we are completely convinced the consequences will be extraordinary the impact will quote possibly be as transformational as some of the major technological inventions of the past several hundred years think the printing press the steam engine electricity Computing and the Internet so he's definitely uh I don't know he he's someone that definitely thinks there's a huge amount of hype in speculation in terms of AI in the stock market but in terms of the technology he is quite bullish and it's also he said something that they are looking to embrace at JP Morgan so he said uh JP Morgan now has more than 2,000 Ai and machine learning employees and data and uh data scientists working on 400 applications including fraud detection marketing and risk controls uh the bank is also exploring the use of generative AI in software engineering customer service and ways to boost employee productivity so he's definitely he's definitely bullish on uh on AI heish yeah I think there's just so many parallels to to you know late 88s early 90s internet and if you look back and watch interviews or or news kind of uh like 60-minute kind of segments on on the internet in like 1993 it gives you a fascinating Insight um because there's so many parallels to the things that people are saying about AI today and um and so yeah I wouldn't be surprised I wouldn't be uh shocked to put it in that list with like steam engine electricity the internet um I think it certainly fits in there I think there's only a few times in our lives where your mind is really blown like when when you look at something and you go holy moly that is crazy yeah and I think the first time I heard about chat JP I was like all right sure this was this like glorified Google search or something like that and then I can't remember who showed it to me for the first time but then as soon as you start using it and you're seeing it really really seeing the power of what it can do that it can talk to you like what it can recommend that was that was one of those moments that I was like wow this is something really that we have never seen before you know a lot of products and technology is kind of just like iter or building off of something else it's kind of like this but a little bit different you know but this was something where I was like wow this is this is new and this is really interesting no of course I don't buy into the AI hype of the stock market and that kind of stuff I think it's going to be a long grind before and a lot of time and energy put into building AI but uh it's something that's very interesting I think promotes a lot of philosophical debates like is AI once we have ai is that the last invention that Humanity ever needs to make yeah interesting question sorry I cut you off no no no you're fine I think um I think for me that moment was was uh watching some of the videos coming out of Sora open AI Sora um with their text to video which is not released yet but there's been some demos kind of released and that is just insane I mean that's just something we've never seen before and it opens up so many possibilities for uh creating you know video games creating movies creating content in the future um it it for the first time I realized how much content creation or just film is going to change in the next 10 or 20 years um and it's so early that's the thing that got me with that video service what's it called sora is that it was generating sure you could see it was a little bit wonky and often times it is wonky but it's so early and it's already so impressive they give it a few years and it's going to blow our minds I'm sure yeah um okay moving beyond AI uh Diamond also discussed inflation he discussed potential soft Landing for the economy discuss interest rates commercial real estate Bank regulation social media media and geopolitical risks so we'll go through each one on inflation he said many key economic indicators today continue to be good and possibly improving including inflation but when looking ahead to tomorrow conditions that will affect the future should be considered All of the following factors appear to be inflationary ongoing fiscal spending remilitarization of the world restructuring of global trade Capital needs of the new grain economy and possibly higher energy costs in the future due to a lack of needed investment in the energy infrastructure so Diamond I mean he said this before but he definitely kind of takes the stance of oh guys this inflation piece might not be over like it's great if it is but remember probably not and these are the reasons for it yeah and I think um I I think it's interesting it's an interesting time because there are so many factors on the inflationary and on the deflationary side that are just out there at the moment like a big one that I think doesn't probably even get enough recognition is AI and how uh big technological advancements that reduce costs in a sharp way like the internet like the steam engine are extremely deflationary um right if everyone suddenly has to have way less labor and their costs go down that puts massive downward pressure on prices and it's been one of the biggest deflationary factors of the last 20 years has been the internet and how much that has and Computing as well if you want to go back another 20 years but those two technological advancements have put an enormous amount of downward pressure on inflation and so uh while there are a lot of inflationary factors out there like yeah if countries are increasing their military that's more spending if governments are spending more money that's going to be more debt and more inflation there are a lot of inflationary factors out there but we do have this this kind of technology that we have no idea how much how many jobs it's going to uh how much is going to remove the need for a lot of jobs um and and the deflationary impact that that potentially has so um yeah it's a fascinating time it is long-term technology is deflationary and you think about it even like it's everything all technology starts out expensive and then it gets better and better and it gets cheaper and cheaper so it makes things easier gets better yeah you're right it is deflationary so you do have those two forces at play um which one is more powerful than the other that remains to be seen I guess um Diamond also spoke about the potential for a soft Landing so this this this phrase gets chucked around a lot um but nobody ever really talks about exactly what it means so a soft Landing I looked it up a soft Landing really means that there's there's been a rise in interest rates so therefore there's a Slowdown of the economy but the Slowdown of the economy that you kind of get through it without causing a big recession that's what's known as a soft Landing in economics so on that diamond says Equity values by most measures are at the high end of the valuation range and credit spreads are extremely tight these markets seem to be pricing in at a 70 to 80% chance of a soft Landing modest growth along with declining inflation and interest rates I believe the odds of that are sorry I believe the odds are a lot lower than that so again Diamond taking a slightly more bearish stance and I think he kind of that not not to just be a Perma bear but he he kind of gets I feel like Jamie kind of gets a little bit annoyed at the market speculators the people that buy Nvidia like at the current price like that kind of stuff so he kind of likes to kind of nigle at them and be like hey guys we need to like really chill out cuz things could be worse than you think yeah yeah yeah well yeah I mean you do you do get these times right where the market kind of swings back and forth for from optimism and pessimism and it's certainly um you depending on who you ask you could some people will say it's an absolute Bubble at the moment some people just say it's slightly kind of optimistic but certainly I think everyone can agree markets are optimistic and on balance um and uh you know if if you're someone like Jamie Diamond or even a ray doio or I tend to kind of put myself in this Camp as well it kind of makes me nervous when markets are on the optimistic side I like when they're on the pessimistic side CU then you know there's upside surprise um but when there on the optimistic side especially with so many you know macroeconomic factors that have unknown outcomes it's uh it's it's a little bit of a you know walking in in in darkness yeah uh two more things heish on interest rates and Commercial Real Estate um Diamond said if long long end rates that's long-term or 10e government bonds go up over 6% and this increase is a company by a recession there will be plenty of stress not just in the banking system but with leveraged companies and others remember a simple 2 percentage Point increase in rates essentially reduced the value of most Financial assets by 20% and certain real estate assets specifically office real estate may be worth even less due to the effects of recession and higher vacancies so he sees some potential issues Brewing if um if interest rates stay up and then finally on geopolitics um he does like to weigh in on geopolitics Jamie Diamond he have is say he says quote Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent aberant attack on Israel and ongoing violence in the Middle East should have punctured many assumptions about the direction of future Safety and Security bringing us to this pivotal time in history America and the free western world can no longer maintain a false sense of security based on the illusion that dictatorships and oppressive Nations won't use their economic military powers to advance their aims particularly against what they perceive as weak incompetent and disorganized Western democracies in a troubled world we are reminded that National Security is and always will be Paramount even if it's importance seems to recede in tranquil times so he's not shy I find that interesting like chucking quotes like that in in your JP Morgan annual report and letter to shareholders but yeah Jamie di I think he's just getting so comfortable that he he just likes to just Chuck his own opinions in there but um it's he said that as well as a tricky time a tricky time for the global economy and Global Supply Chain specifically because of all of these geopolitical risks right yeah interesting I'm not sure if I have anything too much to add on uh geopolitics in the Middle East so what you sorry can you give me your nuanced opinion on the the conflict in the Middle East heish well let me tell you a okay um yeah we are definitely drifting outside our Lane when it comes to that so that that's pretty much what Jamie Diamond had to say in his letter to shareholders
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