저자: 미상 · 외국인
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ETF 버블 경고 영상: 패시브 투자와 ETF 확대가 시장 왜곡과 유동성 위기를 키운다는 주장 정리 핵심 결론: 영상은 ETF가 과도하게 확산되어 버블 상태이며, 향후 경기침체 시 유동성 붕괴로 이어질 수 있다고 주장한다. 자금 흐름: 핀리파이(Lipper) 집계 기준 개인투자자는 올해 주식형 뮤추얼펀드와 ETF에서 1,350억 달러 이상을 인출할 예정이며, 이는 1992년 기록 집계 이후 최대 규모라고 언급한다. 반면 채권형 펀드와 ETF로는 기록적 자금 유입이 나타난다고 한다. 진행자 해석: 개인이 주식 시장을 버블로 보고 채권으로 피신하고 있다는 분석이다. 다만 채권도 안전하지 않을 수 있다고 덧붙인다. 웰스매니저와 ETF: TD 아메리트레이드 기관 조사를 인용해 웰스매니저의 88%가 ETF를 사용한다고 소개한다. 전체 ETF의 약 2/3 이상이 웰스매니저 계좌에 편입되어 있다고 추정한다. 왜곡 주장: 시장이 개별 종목을 보지 않고 ETF 단위로 일괄 가격을 매기면서 개별 종목의 가치 왜곡(잘못된 가격 책정)이 발생한다는 주장이다. 이로 인해 액티브 헤지펀드가 시장을 이기기 어려워졌다고 본다. 마이클 버리: 2008년 주택저당증권 공매도로 유명한 투자자로, 블룸버그 인터뷰를 인용해 패시브 ETF가 대형주 중심이라 소형주에 하락 압력을 주고 소형 가치주를 고아로 만들었다고 주장한다. 칼 아이칸: 2018년 CNBC에서 패시브 투자가 버블이며 규제가 필요하다고 발언했고, 3배 레버리지 ETF는 아예 매수 불가로 해야 한다고 주장했다. 제프 건록: 패시브 투자를 권하지 않으며, 패시브 투자와 로보어드바이저가 시장 문제를 악화시킬 것이라고 봤다. 하워드 막스: ETF가 인기 종목의 수요를 끌어올렸다면 하락장에서는 그만큼 강한 매도 압력이 나올 수 있다고 언급했다. 이 역시 확정되지 않은 가능성으로 제시했다. 로버트 쉴러: 케이스-쉴러 지수 공동 창시자로, ETF 문제를 경고했다고 언급된다. 잭 보글: 뱅가드 창업자로, 인덱스 펀드가 미국 주식의 절반을 보유하게 될 것이라며 우려를 표했다. 이러한 집중은 자연스러운 이익에 부합하지 않는다고 봤다. 하리 크리슈난 인터뷰: ETF 유동성이 잘못 가격 책정되어 있으며, 진입은 쉽지만 청산 시 유동성 공백이 발생해 빠르게 붕괴될 수 있다고 설명했다. 개별 종목은 ETF보다 유동성이 높다는 점을 강조한다. 성장 전망: 뱅크오브아메리카 보고서를 인용해 ETF 자산이 2020년 말 5.3조 달러, 2030년 50조 달러 규모로 성장할 것이라는 전망을 소개한다. 다만 진행자는 이 전망에 회의적이다. 투자자 해석: 진행자는 ETF 버블의 피해자는 개인이 아니라 자금을 운용하는 머니매니저라고 보며, 개인투자자가 오히려 더 현명하다고 평가한다. 행동 조언: 보유 ETF 구성 종목을 점검하고, 포트폴리오 재배분을 고려하며, 다음 경기침체에 대비하라고 권고한다. 진행자는 경기침체가 반드시 올 것이라고 본다.
다듬은 글
so we're crypto blood and welcome to another episode of my two cents this morning we're looking at an ETF bubble well many of us know about it actually reported on this let's say about a month and a half ago I did a double spin it was an interesting interview that I saw out of real vision finance on YouTube and I'll leave a link to it the Grant Williams and Steve Bregman sat down and talked and this was actually an old interview but he's what are you saying is really ringing true today almost two years and some change later so we're gonna take a look at this ETF bubble that Michael burry that is the author of the Big Short I really suggest you guys if you haven't and I think it's still applicable read that book the movie was good but the book was even better it was more detailed already many many years ago and I suggest you read it too it just gives you kind of a insight into Wall Street and their hubris to be honest with you there's so many so-called smart individuals on Wall Street and they suffer from groupthink they really do and this book really highlights that and I'll leave a link for that in the description below but before we start if you guys find these types of videos informative make sure you like share and subscribe and click that bale to receive more videos like this and before we get started now maybe preaching to the choir because according to finit of Lipper individual investors are slated to withdraw more than 135 billion dollars from equity mutual funds and exchange-traded funds this year the most since they started keeping record in 1992 and ironically enough to the contrary there are record inflows heading into bond mutual funds and ETFs what the hell is going on here people I think I can tell you exactly what's going on people are beginning to understand that the stock market is a complete bubble and the only place they can go is into bonds where they can at least get some yield while holding their funds in that type of asset class but even that I think it's going to catch them by surprise but hey I guess you got to pick the best house on the worst block right it goes on to say what we're witnessing here is a transformational shift that has been unfolding for years one that's also changing the very job description of the equity portfolio manager with a good portion of America's investors now aging and focused more on capital preservation than appreciation investment flows are no longer motivated by performance and the money trail shows it driving all this is the single most important influence in investing today the modern wealth manager and get this stat people according to TD Ameritrade Institutional 88% of wealth managers use ETFs the most popular investment vehicle in their arsenal it's estimated that two-thirds or more of all ETFs are held in accounts directed by wealth managers it is not an understatement to say that ETF is the tool that created the wealth management industry prior to its creation it was manager ie stockbroker needed a large bank to back them the ETF freed the wealth manager from the infrastructure allowing them efficiency so that kind of gives us the landscape as to how and why ETS became so popular but like all things everything has a cycle it must come to an end and we sometimes get in a situation where we over subscribe to certain ideas and strategies and that's what's happening here with the ETFs and you'll see this in the video from real vision it's causing a miss allocation of funds in a misrepresentation of the value of those particular stocks that make up an ETF the market is no longer looking at the individual stocks that make up the ETF but looking at it at an aggregate which is wrong because now you're kind of placing a price across the board on all of these particular stocks that may make up this ETF instead of valuing them individually and this is why we're saying hedge funds really have a hard time they can't beat the markets anymore passive investing is taking over or versus active investing and it's really causing a mispricing in the entire equities market and Michael burry and many others he's not the only one are sounding the alarm regarding this issue this impeding crisis that we're gonna see with ETFs and it you know if you're not paying attention people it may catch you off guard as well so you definitely want to be more diligent about knowing what stocks you own in these ETFs and if you know if they're being valued correctly Michael burry the investor that famously shorted mortgage securities back in 2008 so again Michael burry if you guys don't know is the famous guy who shorted the mortgage securities market right before the 2008 housing crisis but he had an interview with Bloomberg and he said and he normally doesn't do interviews too often but he said that the bubble is ignoring small cap stocks the problem is happening because the pillars of passive investing exchange-traded funds and index based assets mostly focus on bigger companies this puts downward pressure on the stocks of smaller companies and have effectively orphaned smaller value type securities globally burry isn't the only one calling out passive investing over the last few years as passive investing has grown in size and popularity many investors have called out flaws in the approach which minimizes buying and selling to protect investors from dips in performance that can come with frequent trading in today's current market environment where a number of recession indicators are flashing and investors are becoming increasingly nervous money managers have also argued that passive strategies can set up investors for major losses in unexpected market downturns and so here are some of the big names that have spoken out about this issue regarding passive investing in this ETF bubble that has been created Carl Icahn being one of them billionaire investor Carl Icahn told CNBC all the way back in 2018 that a sell-off in stocks showed issues in passive investing he said passive investing is a bubble right now and that's a great danger you need regulation on this stuff he highlighted triple leveraged ETFs that offer tripled returns of an underlying index saying that they shouldn't even be available for purchase jeff Gunlock and i've covered him many times in the past guys he's another smart investor he said I wouldn't advise anyone to be a passive investor he said he thinks in fact that passive investing and Robo advisors are going to exacerbate the problem in markets because it's hurting behavior Howard Marks is another individual who has voiced his opinion about the ETF bubble he said might the inclusion in over weighting in ETFs of the market darlings a source of demand that may have driven up their prices be a source of stronger than average selling pressure on the darlings during the retreat he also added that we won't know until it happens but it's not hard to imagine the popularity that fueled the growth of ETFs in good times working to their disadvantage in bad times Robert Shiller who is a co-author of the case Shiller index if you guys aren't familiar with that very popular index but he also talks about in warns of the ETF issue and lastly Jack Bogle the late founder and chief executive of the Vanguard Group also mentioned this in 2018 he did speak out about this issue which he was the actual creator of this stuff he said in an article in The Wall Street Journal that it's only a matter of time before index funds on half of the US stocks he said I don't believe such a concentration would serve the natural interest so even he knew the inventor of this want to call it derivative he knew that this would become the issue that people will pile into these index funds and you know there's actually a second interview that I want you guys to check out from real vision as well with Hari Krishna and he talks about really the technical side of why ETFs are a ticking time bomb he essentially says that the liquidity in those funds are missed priced and so the market doesn't see that many of those passive investor funds don't understand that and it's essentially the same thing that Jeff Gunlock said regarding ETFs is that this hurting behavior is going to cause a liquidity crisis on the way out so going in is fine and dandy you can pile into these these ETS with no problem they'll take your money any day but when it comes to exiting and trying to liquidate these ETFs it's gonna be a huge problem it's gonna be a vacuum in liquidity that's gonna cause this thing to unravel fairly quickly as Hari noted in his interview and I'll leave this one as well I think you should watch both of these interviews from real vision the Hari Krishnan one is a lot newer it was actually recorded in 2019 unlike the brakeman one in 17 but both are great both are applicable to where we are today and both to help you guys make decisions on how you should reallocate your portfolio look into how many ETFs you have because when stuff hits the fan individual stocks have more liquidity than an ETF fun essentially it's what I'm saying so look into that when you have a chance even though according to some reports one coming out of Bank of America don't know how much you want to try that they're saying that ETF are seeing a growth rate of 25% we'll have a total market cap of 5.3 trillion dollars in assets by the end of 2020 and get this by 2030 you're saying that's gonna have a 50 trillion dollar market cap almost a 10x literally almost a 10x just in ten years so that's if we ever survive that long I'm not too sure we will but you see the trend and it this is not good as Jack Bogle said if this continues it will have half of the stock market piled into ETF this is crazy and you know really from what it looks like though it's not the individual investors that's being duped here it's more the money managers they're the ones being duped into this ETF cycle and it's gonna end badly so it looks like the individual investors are the smart ones in this case hey that's my two cents on the subject let me know yours in the comments below I would love to know how much of your portfolio is in ETFs and did you know about this ETF bubble again please watch those two videos that I have pinned in the comment section below I think it will greatly help you understand the severity of the situation and maybe you can adjust some things to protect yourself when we do have the next recession because it's got to come we can't not have another recession people it's just I know the Fed thinks that that's possible but I think we all know what goes up must come down at some point again if you found this video informative make sure you like share and subscribe and click that bill to receive more videos like this super crypto Blood I'm out of here power
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