Why did Cathie Wood JUST Dump MILLIONS in Tesla Stock

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테슬라가 2년 반 저항선(약 231) 돌파 여부의 분기점에 있다고 보며, 돌파 시 258→300 가능성을 언급. 다만 캐시 우드의 테슬라 매도, 금리 상승(10년물), SOFR 급등, 비트코인 이중천장 및 ETF 유출, RSI 과열, 풋콜비율 하락 등 약세 신호를 열거. Q3 인도량 둔화·Q2 선반영 우려로 단기 조정 가능성 제기, 장기 강세는 유지.

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01. why is Kathy Wood dumping Tesla what is she seeing going on in the market what did she warn us about and what concerns did she potentially have as to why she would dump Tesla's stock when the stock was up 6% yesterday 10% today and it feels like we're just getting started you can see it right here Ark K dumps 56,000 shares of Tesla to go buy Archer Aviation andalia version dumped in Arc W 6,400 uh and they even picked up paler in AR Q different ETF from where some of these Tesla sales were but why is she dumping Tesla what is she seeing well first and foremost any novice technician should know about this and even fundamental analysts should know about this we are at a massive test listen Tesla volatility was so low it bottomed when the stock was around 170 to 180 we talked about it on this channel we said this is explosive this Stock's volatility if it goes up it could average 1 and a half% a day for the next 60 days which yeah that's like a 90% gain okay this is what we've been talking about frankly we're still just at the beginning of this like consider for a moment we talked about volatility bottoming June 7th so go to the day chart look at June 7th I know I know there's going to be a Temptation for people people to go oh man I wish I bought over there would have could have should have I know look everybody and their mom wishes they had more there's not a single person watching this video right now that isn't like nope don't wish I bought more duh that's psychology but we don't have a crystal ball even though things can tell us this is likely you can't YOLO your whole portfolio on call options for 4 weeks out because if you're wrong you go bankrupt it's simple okay so don't feel bad about that instead one way to actually make yourself feel a little better is is look this feels like a big move but folks it's just 30% the long run potential of Tesla is not 30% it's like 5x okay so like big freaking deal but there is a huge critical inflection point that we sit at right now and even a novice technician should know about this we teach this kind of stuff in the stocks and site course we teach this kind of stuff in the course member live streams that's where I'm early with you on all my information when I see a swing trade when I see an opportunity I give you my ideas I give you my research and if you like it you can figure out your own plan you know my goal isn't for you to copy my trades in fact a lot of people take my information their course like Kev this is great I'm going to go make my own moves off of this and they do better than I do with that information I'm like great maybe because they can look at it with a different lens you know it's it's the unbiased lens uh but anyway what's really incredible uh by the way way we're doing a July 4th coupon linked down below so that's active now you're welcome to check that out at me kevin.com uh before the price goes up so obviously a novice technician would identify that we are at a major resistance point right now we literally just ended a Tippy tip here on a 2 and 1/2 year resistance level we should crash off this line tomorrow no no no I want to be clear I do not want you to think I'm being bearish here Tesla this is part of the process okay this would be very normal and in fact so far it's breaking through it look at Robin Hood overnight you're at 233 that's a buck and a half to $2 above where we need to be so according to Robin Hood we're fine we're already Breaking Free baby Break Free where's Ariana Grande when you need her anyway this is good but understand every single time we have touched this line let's go to the non- average candlesticks every single time we touch it reject reject reject reject reject kid you not okay two and a half years reject reject oh could could this be the moment or we going to get rejected here you see what I'm saying this is a huge huge huge catalyst so somebody could be really bullish Tesla and be short that moment because it is incredibly logic backed now if Tesla can confirm a breakout out of this folks we are going straight to 258 in my opinion no guarantees not personalized Financial advice listen I told you many times on this channel and on real meet Kevin on Twitter and in the course member live streams as soon as we clear the $200 selling pressure we break free the problem is if we get rejected at 231 we could be revisiting the 200s because people are going to set sells in the 200s because they don't want to be losers selling in the 100s again okay I'm not trying to call anybody a loser I'm just saying that's a feeling that's part of the psychology of money this is the stuff I teach whether it's here for free on YouTube or in the courses or my trade alerts whatever so what else is there though is there anything bearish going on yes there are a few things that are bearish that are going on and I'm not trying to bring this up to be a bear in fact I think a lot of these well some of these things can be explained but let's be clear first of all Cathy wood recognizes there are cracks in the economy we're we're seeing personal consumption slow down we're seeing capital good purchases slow down capital goods shipment slow down pending home sales slow down we're seeing continuing jobless claims rise we're seeing the merchandise trade balances decrease in other words we're we're doing less we're seeing breath decline in the SNP we're seeing a bare steepening that's what happens when the 10year treasury goes up bro the 10year treasury literally with inflation coming in with good news over the last week the 10year treasury is up 20 basis points why my friends why why I mean this I wasn't even expecting this but you know like I go to cnbc.com and I got somebody who's sad I'm not even reading the title because I'm focused on on on this video right now but I go over here to to bonds the 10e look at the 10 year 4.44 basically now you might be like Kevin I mean that sounds pretty normal why is that a big deal have you looked at the chart recently it's okay if you have it I don't blame you but look at where we were a week and a half ago what 20 basis points lower see this hole we were in now okay I get it we're back to these levels but these levels over here were when we had high inflation reports then we started getting low inflation reports and all of a sudden we're going up on low inflation reports what is going on but folks it's not just that cracking that's happening in the economy there are actually some concerning underlying issues that are starting to pop up right now look at what I just tweeted on uh at real meet Kevin on X what the f is going on bears are cooking something sofa rate spikes okay this is odd the sofa rate spiking is not good it's a signal of funding stress usually the stock market is either down or flat when this happens now sopur hasn't existed that long you know we we used to use lior a lot but if you go back over the last year you could see some periods of stress November 30th through December 5th and again December 22nd through roughly January 3rd and if you look at the NASDAQ during that time so the beginning of December and the end of the year you're going to find either flat or down Okay so let's go over so beginning of December it's right here you can see this little trough right here super minor not a big deal but you had a little trough in the cues no problem happens all the time okay what about the end of the year oh look it's right here see this decline okay 412 all the way down to 395 395 is the new number divided by the old number that gets you almost a 5% drop it's more like a 4% drop but the point is you know that's just one issue but the sofa rate usually spikes when there's funding stress when banks are like we're going to hold on to a little bit more money so then somebody has to offer a higher overnight yield and then the banks are willing to let go money it's a sign that cash is getting a little tight that's not good so we got the 10year up the bare steepening in the yield curve we've got cracks in the Economy based on what Kathy would is saying cracks based on the other things I just read out Bitcoin oh of course Bitcoin once again look at that double top reject at the 63 840 hits 617 bounces loses it now we're sitting at the 68 I've got a purple trade line over here just because we've sat there a few times before I'm probably honestly going to upgrade this one to a yellow because we keep getting bounced here Blues are like really powerful but this is a bearish indicator for trading tomorrow so I'm I'm very very nervous going into tomorrow for what's going to happen for Tesla uh because I do think that some people are going to think oh my gosh no this means the rally is over for Tesla if we end up red tomorrow no that is not what I believe and I'm going to explain my opinion for Tesla but I'm just saying the setup right now is that things could go potentially nasty tomorrow just saying Indy Futures which are not just Robin Hood's trading and the people on Robin Hood using that on the 24 uh or or the 24-hour trade Windows Indy Futures are down small cap Futures uh you know the um uh Dow 30 S&P 500 the NASDAQ 100 all down NASDAQ barely though so not that big of a deal maybe this is all a big nothing Burger but let's also be real when Tesla skyrocketing 6% and then 10% the NASDAQ hits all-time highs with the S&P 500 at the same time as you're getting this bare steepening you're getting alerts that you know European uh military bases are going on high alert uh again the bare steepening and the sofa rate Spike some of these other aspects all coming together along with a cracking Foundation you kind of start wondering hm what is going on should we be paying attention some to something and are we potentially missing something I'm going to show you by the way what I said about this this ad or this um situation in uh Europe with the military bases I'm having such trouble putting this all together but look at this I commanded dozens of major bases in Europe for four years as Supreme Allied Commander of NATO and commander of the US European command sounds like a weak beta we had plenty of scare I'm just kidding that's really impressive uh we had plenty of scares but nothing that required this level of alert clearly there is deep concern turn that is consistent with everything I could see us bases go into higher safety or higher state of alert it's like a orange or yellow or whatever uh anyway so going back to Tesla for a moment obviously you know we had some cool numbers today we expect actually the numbers for uh the earnings report coming up to not be that bad we probably have better margins because commodity prices started falling although they were still some high in Q2 oh but lithium prices are coming down commodity prices are coming down frankly they are probably going to amortise out the cost of uh uh buying down people's interest rates you know they'll spread that out over a period of time uh if they can they uh they should have free cash flow again they produced substantially fewer vehicles I mean the production slowdown is substantial 14.4% production slowdown that is a massive production slowdown which is great frankly for free cash flow so don't get me wrong like this is great so far like you know the energy storage deployment explosion sure came with price Cuts but batteries typically have larger margins anyway so we should be pretty good I mean we're not going to get any forward guidance so is there anything that's potentially negative for Tesla well sure I mean you could argue that the relative strength index is at you know obscene levels on the uh you know the 1our chart for example example if I go to R if I look at the RSI for where we sat at the end of the day we sat at 81 okay this this is pretty high you you are right for a selloff if not tomorrow then the next day or the next day I have no idea and again I'm not wanting that to happen uh but but it would make sense why people would short it if they wanted a hedge against their longer portfolio point though is what's actually longer term negative for Tesla well what's longer term negative for Tesla is q three because think about for a moment what happened between q1 and Q2 q1 came in miserably low like oddly low really really low deliveries which were very very disappointing but if part of that was because the model 3 Highland production was essentially shut off so now what you really should do is smooth out q1 and Q2 and then say okay we probably had an average of what 418,000 vehicles delivered you know you're averaging out q1 to Q2 because what we did in Q2 is we basically you know burned through the backlog of inventory that we had okay well in that case your vehicle delivery growth isn't that impressive it's impressive on the quarter because you're comparing to a hole in q1 but you know that's also kind of convenient it's kind of convenient that you know hey let's have a really bad q1 bag the stock hey you know I don't know if I want to be CEO anymore more unless we get a comp plan you know approved right before the vote hey 88 Robo taxi day hey by the way uh this quar is going really good we're going to do some special financing and you're trying to pull everything into Q2 oh your vote gets approved the stock goes up it's easy for the judge to confirm it I don't want to sound jaded but let's just say imagine you put like you had the power to take a giant magnet and you took that giant magnet and put it into one of the quarters in the year which quarter are you going to put that magnet into to suck as much money as possible into given that one of those quarters is going to be a quarter that decides whether or not you get your stock base comp well I think uh between you me and the fence post or the light post since there's no fence post here I think we can all guarantee it would be cute too we would dump that magnet into so we would poo poo q1 Q3 and Q4 because we wanted in Q2 so this is where there is a concern that Q3 and Q4 are honestly going to suck because think about this Q3 we're probably going to get a buy the rumor sell the news event on the robo taxi I am not long-term bearish on Robo taxi I'm not as bullish as other people are but we're going to get there honestly I I can't even complain about FSD anymore okay and and you know I'll complain about it because I I give it to you straight can't even complain about it it's very good so I'm very excited about that uh you know I know it does some funky things sometimes and people are a little frustrated that why does it feel like we're getting two steps forward one step back blah blah blah everybody's always got to complain whatever but I think that's going to be a negative Catalyst in addition to the fact that in Q3 so far we're not offering the better interest rate incentives we're at 6.99 for the threes and y's and those are the vast majority of vehicle sold right now I mean you know Tesla evangelist or whatever this person's name is uh you know good on them to notice like we didn't really sell that many Model S's model x's and cyber trucks I mean 21,000 out of 200 or out of the um 443,000 almost 444,000 is relatively low so that's could hurt margin a little bit although the margin on the Cyber Tru isn't that great anyway so maybe they slowed that down a little that's probably honestly the uh x's and s's though because who's going buy an XR s when you could buy a cyber truck for that price I don't know honestly I would buy the X again if I had a pick CU I want the FSD see I like it it's a good thing uh and look I know there's a bunch of bullishness about like oh AI isn't priced in totally agree with that uh Optimus robot yes I love it love the energy like there's so many icings on the cake that I just absolutely love for Tesla but let's be real in a high interest rate Q3 environment when you just pulled forward everything into Q2 and you're producing at a slower rate let's just be real Q3 is probably not going to be anywhere near as Grand as Q2 especially in this higher interest rate environment and then people say oh but Kevin you know the fed's going to cut rates when November well November is halfway through Q4 and what a half or or rather a quarter per cut is going to all of a sudden make people want to buy a car versus not buy a car there's still some serious issues here so is it possible that Kathy thinks that Tesla is getting a little bit ahead of its skis yes maybe she sees cracks in economy with rate Cuts not coming soon enough jpow today reiterating his patience along with the likelihood that maybe there was an incentive to sort of magnet everything into Q2 and now you're going to have a poopy Q3 with a bu the rumor seld the news event and a 2 and a half year ta Trend that we might open Green tomorrow but revisiting that line tomorrow could be quite expected we'll see we'll see I mean right now there's a lot of bullishness okay volatility first of all volatility on the 5 day right now well above average so options are very expensive right now if I go to the three-day average uh I can't go that low I go to 4 and 5 day average I'm I'm decently above uh average ranges I'm above the 100 day the 50-day the 30day I'm above all of these uh and I'm well off of the lows where we were previously uh but in addition to that if I look at the put call ratio on uh on Tesla right now it's a 74 which basically means we are getting substantially fewer puts and more calls uh purchased on this stock which you know is going to put some upside pressure on the stock but eventually that sort of balances out again and it just adds to being a negative catalyst so you've got some issues here now I know some people like to sort of wash this away and say oh well you know BTC is falling because of Mount gaau and Germany and this that or whatever and the only thing holding it up or or uh BTC flows uh into the ETFs that's possible I let's see the Black Rock Bitcoin ETF let's see that's the uh that's called ibit okay ibit flow let me see if I can get the ibit flows uh let's see here um you know it should be a little easier to figure out exactly what the all of the combined Bitcoin ETF flows are right now but it ain't happening so whatever but people are arguing that the Bitcoin ETF flows are exactly what's keeping oh here we go spot Bitcoin ETF flows oh that's quite convenient ah the block.

02. code does this much easier than where I was trying to look oh that's great take a look at this uh they're suggesting that this is the only thing that's keeping uh Bitcoin propped up right now but honestly you're actually starting to get some outflows over here that does look too good let me go to the can I go to a one month here yeah there we go oh this looks like DNA first of all that's cute uh but anyway these are outflows look at that I got outflows June 10th so I don't know what they're talking about with this is being the only thing that's keeping flows up so far going back to June 28th this all looks like a a set of outflows here yeah that's not great so okay now with that said where am I on the bull bear scale oh yeah well I mean if you look at the greed and fear index first of all Market momentum is at extreme greed that's not great we usually go back to the moving average and so at some point like this momentum is going to stop and I just I want I'm saying this so people are psychologically prepared for this I'm not trying to be a bear and I'm going to explain where I am on the bull bear scale it's not bearish but I just want to be aware because I don't want to be caught with my pants down all in on YOLO calls all of a sudden the market u-turns and I'm like what what the heck what's happening oh it's get bounce back and then it doesn't and then you get screwed you know so I'd rather be prepared pred and look if it if it moons and it keeps going keeps going keeps going great fantastic then then you dump your shorts you buy calls ride that rocket ship baby no problem but be aware there's some issues here uh breath we know is really low St stock price strength these these are all bearish things it is actually bearish to be at Market momentum extreme greed so you just need to flip this to bearish and then all of this will end up going to fear uh and then of course put call ratio everybody in their mom is loading up on calls right now which is also not good so we've got some issues some serious issues and again I do believe that if we can break through all of this BS that I just talked about and we can get through a good Q3 and we can hold on to 231 and Beyond we are going to go to 258 and then we're going to go to 300 I would feel a bit more comfortable if we broke 231 held it for a while got through our Q3 got through 88 and then we mooned because otherwise I think we're setting ourselves up for a very painful fall uh and and I always get nervous when that sort of stuff happens for folks you know these 40% sell-offs that Tesla is known for having they do damage to people psychologically they're not good so um again long run bullish year shortterm we really got to pay attention to what's going on over the next three days this what I'm describing to you does not have to play out as a bearish thesis tomorrow morning at you know between 6:30 and 6:35 but it can play out over the next week and if it plays out over the next week I just want you to be aware of the resistance and why potentially some people are saying you know what the this has gotten a little bit too far let's pull back a little bit anyway check out the July 4th coupon code link down below thank you so much for being here and we'll see you at the market open live stream over at the meetkevin live Channel thanks so much go to meetkevin.com to learn more thanks