저자: 미상 · 외국인
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엔비디아는 사업 다각화와 높은 수익성·재무 안정성을 갖춘 우량 성장주이나, PER·매출 대비 시총 등 밸류에이션이 매우 높아 과열 상태로 판단. 공정가치는 약 420달러로 제시하며, 현 주가 수준에서는 매수 매력이 낮다고 봄. 암호화폐 채굴 수요 변동이 주요 리스크로 언급됨. 발언자는 본인 견해가 주관적이며 투자 판단은 스스로 하라고 덧붙임.
다듬은 글
Hello, dear friends, today we'll talk about NVIDIA. I'll analyze and give my subjective assessment of this asset. There was quite a lot of interest both on YouTube and in Telegram. Let's start, as always, with a description of the invention and the NVIDIA graphics processor. In 1999, it caused the growth of the computer gaming market, changed the definition of modern computer graphics and revolutionized parallel computing.
More recently, deep learning using graphics processors laid the foundation for modern artificial intelligence. The following or computing, well, let's take a look. We won't read too much into NVIDIA's statement. This is the data it provides itself. This is the release of one of its reports. NVIDIA's line of business is data centers, games, professional visualization, and the automotive industry.
Here, by sector and by revenue segment, it is divided. Anyone interested can come and see in more detail, including dynamic and including the development of new graphics equipment. Here, everything is indicated in the video for you. We won't dwell on this. This is already known, it is already included in the prices, it is included.
In future profit forecasts, let's move on to competitors and NVIDIA, we've already partially touched on this area in the " Direct Dialogue" section on semiconductors. It belongs to this structure, of course, the asset is more diversified than just a semiconductor manufacturer, but nevertheless, it is in the same industry with Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel Broadcom, and so on.
That is, the largest asset here is Taiwan Semiconductor, we analyzed it, talked about it, and in general, as with other semiconductors, I believe that now prices are too high, not the best time to enter the semiconductor industry. That is, it was worth doing this earlier and more often. I included them in my portfolio as a semiconductor company and in the viewers' portfolio, if necessary, I don't do this now because it's expensive, but let's go through and see what prospects and potential NVIDIA has.
According to the main price multiple, the ratio of price to earnings per share on an annualized basis requires 89 years to cover the cost of one share. The forward price is expected to be in a lower range, around 46, but let's say this is a rather optimistic scenario, I would say. It's unlikely that this will come true.
The revenue capitalization ratio is 23, meaning the pen's capitalization is covered by 23. This is also an extremely expensive multiple, including when comparing it with competitors. Here we see lower indicators, both in terms of the multiple and in terms of the availability of free cash flow. Tawan Semiconductor is in the negative zone, meaning it has negative free cash flow.
NVIDIA is represented in a very small range. Intel is in more or less order among the companies. In general, I highlighted Intel in the answers to the question because the asset is indeed in quite interesting zones in terms of its financial condition relative to its value. However, it is not expected to be a rocket, so people are in no hurry to buy it.
This is necessary, but it is necessary to take into account and understand which asset can solve what benefit and what problem in the investment portfolio. Further, we looked at the competitor. NVIDIA is somewhat more expensive than other players in this market in terms of debt load. A 50 percent debt- to-equity ratio is normal, and NVIDIA easily pays off its debt obligations.
There are no problems with this, marginality, high return on equity. Return on assets is high, there are no questions at all in this regard, and I can characterize NVIDIA as a very stable, competently managed asset without problems. A good company, of course, there is nothing negative to say here, only very positive in terms of revenue.
We see a significant increase in revenue, a significant increase in profit, but some decreases based on the results of January 1, 2020, so to speak, the situation may be corrected. Let's look at a quarterly breakdown to have more up- to-date data. For 10 months, the company reads everything quite well, revenue has grown, profit has grown, this is a normal trend in NVIDIA.
Free cash flow, operating cash flow are increasing, the company practically does not pay dividends and practically does not increase them, so in general, the meaning is not very clear. Dividend payments are 0.12 percent with an increase of 97 percent on average per year. In general, these were pennies, they will remain pennies.
Well, probably there is some sense in this from the management and NVIDIA. That is, the asset can be clearly assessed according to the strategy. This is a growth strategy without growth plus dividends, without dividends, a pure growth asset. In general, it is historically and justifies itself as a growth asset.
Earnings per share without going to temporary items, we see that there is an increase in profits here, currently 6 dollars 11 cents, at the present time, next year an increase in this indicator is expected to be around 8-9 dollars per share, this is positive, return on equity is excellent, as I already said, marginality is high and it is growing, that is, there are still prospects for increasing marginality, the debt burden has increased somewhat, but is not absolutely a problem, so to speak, regular acquisitions, regular infusion of cash from credit obligations, that is, this does not burden the company somewhat, operating profit and 4 billion interest payments on loans are a penny in this area of 100 million, that is, they are not even noticeable for NVIDIA, we can say that debt is practically non- existent for it, based on the number of assets, we see their significant increase, that is, assets are what generates financial flows for the company, revenue and profit, the most important thing for us, liabilities are increasing, but assets are growing faster than liabilities in fact, as an increase in equity, the company is also acquiring fixed assets, in fact, it is possible that it is using them to take on debts, not very large acquisitions for the scale of the company in the region of 500-300 Millions of dollars actively invests and sometimes acquires businesses, and so, as a result of the current four quarters, 8 billion was spent on acquisitions, that is, this will be, and plus this will be a reflection of financial flows, since the company is adequate, it will not acquire unprofitable projects, it is clear that it will develop those areas that may be in demand, and in terms of free cash flow, there are no questions here either, it is growing, it is in a small relationship with capitalization, which gives rise to a high PFF parameter, but in general, the company has enough and it actively uses these funds, invests, reinvests, and so on, according to the potential that the assets may have now, as we looked at, the company closes about 6 dollars per share, and if we focus on profit excluding one-time items, it will be about 9 dollars, and accordingly, if we say project the situation taking into account the acquisition of new assets by NVIDIA, investment in fixed assets, and so on, that is, we can approximately project an increase in earnings per share of about 20 percent, approximately this growth, it showed previously, about 27, that is, and it happens that in the future, not such financial flows are expected as in the past, it is absolutely necessary A look into the future, in principle, here and NVIDIA plans to develop at the same pace as before.
Revenue is not growing as much as profit because the company is increasing margins. This information was shown on the financial tab. Let's move on and see what else can be expected from NVIDIA. This means that there is really good information regarding insiders that we could apply. There is no information available, although there are insider sales and insider purchases.
That is, insider purchases are always significantly more important than insider sales. Selling shares can be done by an insider for some reason, simply cashing out for the purchase of a house, for a child's education, and so on. Acquisition is always associated with a desire to invest money effectively.
For example, a cross is called a cross. This means that being an employee of the company, he purchased a certain number of shares of 100 units worth $530. Is this a good deal? That is, he entered in December. The amount is quite large, but in general, I'm not very large. But for his position, let's say, for his position, he spent quite a lot of money.
He is not a member of the board of directors, not a 10% holder, some major player, he is an ordinary employee. He entered more than 100 thousand dollars is a decent amount, but after analyzing the dynamics, the deal was in the lead, which means I came to the conclusion that it is better not to rely on him.
This same gentleman, at the beginning of the year in February, jumped out of the company at $200, $260, later acquired it at $500 with some change. That is, it is logical, perhaps not very logical. Here, the activities of insiders should not blindly follow any transactions. It is necessary to evaluate the quality of the signal, how objective the person is, how adequately he has the ability to instantly analyze his company, and so on.
That is, I would consider this transaction not serious and not as something that does not affect anything. Like subsequent sales transactions, people left there, they periodically leave, which means people simply need money. The next factor that can influence the future value is the factor of buyback or additional issue.
We still see a trend towards an increase in shares with the number of shares in circulation. There is a splash here, but a very strong trend. We see that the shares are growing. You bought them for some time, now they are again being brought to the market in the form of an additional issue in order not to increase the company's debt burden.
Selling itself in an even wider range, we get an additional issue, it's not serious here, given the liquidity of the securities on the market, it didn't have any significant impact. Of course, it does have some influence, but not some categorical one that should be factored into the potential future value.
A combination of factors must be taken into account, such as Insider, if they come out, so will the additional issue, and in the future, financial flows. All the information that I provided often appears in the comments. How to determine the fair value of a company? You need to look at all the factors, that is, those that are present, and those factors that are, in general, behind the video, when I 'm going to analyze the company, naturally, through all the tabs, I go through it, looking at it to expect the finished result.
That is, the combination of all these parameters gives an understanding of the value of the business. That is, you can't calculate it using a formula, there you multiply by e, divide by 2 and apply it to a sine wave and get a fair value. No, that doesn't work that way. You need to apply an analytical approach to this at this point.
In general, in the training course I talk about this, then let's see what analysts think about it. NVIDIA and its prospects, the average price concept is $600 for the current one, it's 10 percent with a yearly outlook, that is, around the beginning of 2022, analysts expect this price to be very wide, pay attention, it's better than $300, some analysts, that is, 18 in total, have spoken out, and the range is $400 to $700 according to analysts, that is, there is no unity among them, they all think differently, and one can understand them, of course, some strive for a large fair value for the company, others support the hype mood that the mining market will continue to inflate, and then the American market will inflate.
Many novice investors will enter NVIDIA because they see that it is growing without understanding why it is growing. Maybe the hype mood is realistic, and realistically, the hype mood here is a conditional reflection, maybe so, and so this is certainly true. I have been in the market for quite a long time, observing the market and engaged in investing and medium-term transactions, that is, I understand that this scenario may well come true, but I am always somewhat pessimistic, I do not buy an asset more expensive What is it worth, that is, I'm not ready to buy bread for 1000 rubles when it costs 50 rubles, for example, I'm also not ready to buy any part of a business that costs 200 dollars to buy it for 800.
I hope that it will continue to grow on the hype, it may happen again and we can get a huge one. That is, this approach, of course, you can apply an aggressive strategy and take risks, you can take a balanced approach to the decision. Ronnie's place is a balanced approach and so, based on the above, what I want to say about the INN video, let's go over the competitors again, it looks a little more expensive in general, the semiconductor market is now expensive with the exception of some companies in the fundamental state of the company, it is absolutely stable and reliable, there are no problems with debt, I am not afraid of any crisis, that is, it's not exactly a defensive asset, but we acquire defensive assets not to insure against a fall from Korea from a correction in any case, it can come to any company that is a safety net.
We are talking about the fact that the company is unlikely to go bankrupt before it goes bankrupt. The probability of debt is practically not a shame for the business, it is quite promising and stable, but the company is very It's very overheated, that is, according to the multipliers that we see now, it is very overheated and we project them to the next year if the company implements the plans that it is laying down here, which means the NVIDIA Blu-ray file and everything else will be implemented and all this will be actively sold, everything will be fine, nothing will happen, the games will also be relevant and everything else, even if we project the future financial flows on the current price wall, I still think that the company will be expensive, that is, it has a huge advance now laid down, this advance, entering now at 500 or something dollars, will be justified in three or four years if the plans are implemented and NVIDIA will be okay, let everyone decide for themselves so much hatch he believes in the business and NVIDIA, to buy this business now for such a sum that in 4 years it will generally justify what he invested and this business will really be worth 500 48 dollars in a few years if at some point next year in 21 22 or 23 some kind of failure occurs Then the company can adjust when the investor gets, say, such a very expensive business in price in relation to not very high quality, that is, here you can build a certain strategy for yourself, aggressive or rational, like comparing with Amazon AM, comparing with Opal and with all the others, but here MB was pouring in, I did not compare fully because it is really a business and Nvidia, it is growing, but it is simply inflating because it needs to inflate.
This is my opinion about the Nvidia company, a more or less fair price for it, I stood at 421, this is taking into account the built-in hype, a creditable one, considering the fact that people are accustomed to Nvidia growing, everything is fine and there, say goodbye to three hundred dollars, which I would call for it, and for business, it is downright fair, taking into account future financial flows, of course, and they will not let it go down.
But in reality, I think somewhere around 420, it will go to them. Of course, there may have been surges. Pay attention now, I will post a five-year chart on mining. It means there is a lot of information circulating specifically on mining from the area of 17-18 when Cryptocurrencies took off, meaning video cards, including NVIDIA, weren't doing badly here.
Then the price of cryptocurrency jumped, meaning NVIDIA is n't fully dependent. Naturally, NVIDIA's activities are diversified, but there's definitely a dependence. Now, we're seeing good video card sales prices again. I'd also like to remind you that I often hear that Bitcoin is being mined here, and video cards are growing.
I'd like to remind you, as the owner of mining firms and someone involved in mining, that Bitcoin's era with video cards is long gone. Bitcoin money is mined by ASIC miners, meaning they can. I have nothing to do with video cards. Also, which OM-D video cards will be deceived? Altcoins and such as Ethereum are the most popular, but there are a number of other assets here.
What other risks might there be? As I said, the company is using video cards, there's a tendency to switch to post-mining. I expect this to happen, too. This process is constantly being postponed, but sooner or later it may come. There is a reward for manners, not for using the equipment, but for using it.
In general, the presence of cryptocurrency on The balance is a kind of deposit for mining equipment, including MD and Nvidia video cards. They won't be needed. If this happens, we'll suddenly see sales of video cards on the secondary market, and accordingly, no one will need them, and accordingly, on the primary market.
There could also be a correction. In this case, we'll see a good downward correction. That is, Ukraine could be $360 while altcoins are taking place and are profitable, and therefore video cards are also one of the segments of the Nvidia company, they generate profit. Such a small lyrical introduction.
It's just that not everyone understands the topic of mining and is interested in it, but news about video cards is everywhere. Here's Bitcoin, which means it's mined with video cards. No attention to CAO. There's an ASIC miner. And that's probably all I've expressed my position on Nvidia. I'll simply give it a rating with a current value of around six and a half.
As I said, the business is excellent and stable, well, expensive, that is, it would be at this level of about 7.7 half. If it had gone lower, it would have been an eight and The nine is somewhere around here, when a business for a reasonable price would offer prospects for the future. It's still a bit expensive.
My opinion is subjective, of course. Never listen to me. Never listen to analysts. Make your own decisions. That's all for now. Good luck with your investments. Goodbye.
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