저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 피터 시프는 미국 경제와 주식시장이 거품이며 곧 큰 폭락과 통화·국가부채 위기가 올 것이고, 금이 그 해법이라고 주장한다. 경제·주식 거품 주장: 트럼프 정부의 '역대 최고 경제'는 정치적 선전이며, 월가가 고평가 주식을 사게 하려고 이를 퍼뜨린다고 본다. 작년 기업 이익은 소폭 감소했는데 주가는 약 30% 올랐다고 지적한다. 주가 전망: 다우 30,000 도달 가능성은 인정하지만 거품이라 반드시 터진다. 폭락 시 최소 50% 이상 하락을 예상한다. 부채·통화 위기: 재정적자가 계속 커지고 있으며 국가부채 위기가 올 것이다. 구제금융이 없는 국가부채 위기는 서브프라임보다 더 나쁘고, 결국 통화 위기로 이어진다. 달러가 언제까지 버틸지는 모른다고 답했다. 금 전망: 금은 변하지 않는 기준자이므로 금으로 측정하면 주가와 부동산이 비정상적으로 높다. 중앙은행이 법정화폐 가치를 뒷받침하려면 금을 보유해야 하며 금이 다시 통화의 기준이 될 것이라고 주장한다. 2029년 금 가격 전망을 언급했다. 은: 금·은 비율이 매우 높아 은이 저평가돼 있고, 금·은 비율이 정상화되려면 금 가격이 크게 올라야 하며 이는 강세장에서만 가능하다고 본다. 금광주: 올해 1월 금 가격은 올랐지만 금광주는 하락했는데, 2000년 1월과 같은 신호로 해석하며 금광주 매수가 좋은 시점이라고 주장했다. 본인 운용 펀드(EPGFX) 홍보가 포함돼 있다. 정치·사회: 샌더스식 사회주의는 늘 실패하지만 인기는 유지된다고 비판한다. 뉴질랜드처럼 사회주의에서 벗어나 성공한 사례를 들었다. 2020년대는 인플레이션의 10년이며 1970년대나 1930년대보다 나쁠 수 있다고 전망했다. 긍정적 시나리오로는 강력한 후보가 나와 재정 축소와 건전한 화폐를 실현하는 것을 제시했다. 조언: 트럼프 정부 측 조언자들은 좋은 조언을 받지 못하고 있다고 평가했다.
다듬은 글
Gold is a constant ruler and you can really see where things are if you measure it in gold because paper money they keep on creating it so to say that you know the dollar value that GDP is this or the dollar value the stock market means nothing because the dollars value is not fixed right Inc the dollar stock bolts are on location Vancouver resource Investment Conference 2020 I've got me now Peter Schiff Euro Pacific Capital shift gold Peter appreciate you spending some time here I want to talk about the economy how are you I'm much better than the economy yeah well you'd if you read the press clippings you'd say that we had the best economy of all time well how do you score that well you have to believe that I mean Trump is trumpeting that right that's his political line because he wants to be re-elected so he wants to pretend that we have the greatest economy ever now I think Wall Street has a vested interest in perpetrating that Falls narrative because it helps get people to buy overpriced stocks right that's their business they want people buying the market so believing that the economy is great is one way to kind of justify these record high multiples in fact you know last year corporate earnings actually declined slightly yet the stock market was up about 30% and so that shows you that it's more perception than reality if we really had a booming economy then corporations would be earning more money but they're not they're earning less and so it's all just a figment of imagination but unfortunately it's gonna end very badly Jever envision a dial 30,000 well look we're at 29,000 and change so I mean 30,000 is is you know clearly within the realm of possibility but look it doesn't really matter if it goes to 30,000 or higher than 30,000 because it's only going there because it's a bubble and bubbles always pop so the key is how much lowers are gonna go once it crashes you know I'd say that at least a 50% decline if not much more than that so there's a lot of downside and what is the Federal Reserve gonna do to try to prevent the market from collapsing or try to you know build it back up after it collapses and what is that gonna do to the bond market what is that going to do the dollar what is that comport encuesta net investors should be asking yeah and uh I heard your speech in there a little bit ago talked about trumping a most liberal Republican I tend to agree with that talk about the deficit what's going on here where are we out of our minds well the deficits just getting bigger and bigger no one gives a damn you know so no we're gonna have a debt crisis we're gonna have a sovereign debt crisis which is much worse than like a subprime mortgage crisis because there's no bailouts from a sovereign debt crisis there's just a Fed and then that causes a currency crisis and so that's worse and ultimately a currency crisis is a sovereign debt crisis because the sovereign debt is denominated in the currency that's in crisis so we're headed for some really bad times unfortunately so I was a use the analogy of the dollar being basket Bernie from weekend at Bernie's they're holding it up how long can they keep pumping the dollar full of juice there and get it going I don't know that's the 64 trillion dollar question and obviously all roads lead to gold for you talk about how you see gold shape up in 2029 now there's probably some roads leading to silver but you know but yeah unfortunately real money real hard assets is where people are gonna need to be to try to take refuge from this and people are gonna be rushing to get rid of claims to wealth and actually have something tangible something real and and that's gold and I do think that central banks are gonna be returning to gold I think gold is gonna be ramana tais I think that's the only way this thing can end is what does that mean REE monetizing gold well meaning gold being the principal reserve asset for central banks I don't think it means that people are gonna walk around you know handing each other gold coins but central banks are gonna have to hold gold to give value to their fiat currencies so fiat currencies are gonna have to return to legitimate currencies right what gave currency value initially was the gold backing behind it so people had confidence in the currency not because it was just a piece of paper but because the central banks had gold that backed it up I think we're gonna go back to that we've had dollars right the dollar has function as the primary reserve asset but that system can't work because the dollar has nothing backing it up so how do you backup something with something backed up by nothing so but this is what led to all these bubbles and these miss allocations of resources and these huge disparities in income equality none of this stuff is a byproduct of capitalism of course there's going to be income inequality in capitalism but a much more healthy type of inequality where everybody is getting better you know everybody is benefiting and the economy is legitimately growing all we've really done now is create these financial bubbles - you know paper over the fact that the actual economy has been weakening as a result of this policy is that is that where the the reset comes in would you say the gold could just get reset one day overnight to the dollar well if gold is gonna be money again and not just jewelry right if it's gonna be used as money then that's a big increase in demand for gold and that means Gold's gonna be repriced but certainly if you look around I mean the price of gold compared to let's say other financial assets the stock market the global bond market the real estate market either everything has to crash where gold has to go way off to kind of return to something that's normal historically because you can relate stock prices or you know real estate prices or the global GDP to gold because gold is a constant ruler and you can really see where things are if you measure it in gold because paper money they keep on creating it so to say that you know the dollar value the GDP is this or the dollar value of the stock market means nothing because the dollars value is not fixed right the dollar can lose value and so if you measure stock prices and dollars of diminished value of course the price is going to go but gold is fixed gold is a constant throughout time and so you can really measure prices in terms of gold and using gold to measure prices it's clear that prices are ridiculously high and so something is going to have to change either all the other prices come down the price of gold goes up or you know some combination of the two silver I'm a fan of silver especially at these ratios I gotta believe that you a favor silver that's another thing that seems mispriced as silver seems dirt cheap unless something has changed and it's different this time and it usually isn't the price of silver is going to gain a lot relative to the price of gold but that's only gonna happen in a bull market I've never seen it happen in a bear market so the only way that that gap is gonna be closed is if the price of gold is going up and it's already over 1,500 so gold is gonna have to go way up in order for that gold silver ratio to normalize yeah are you uh I know you're obviously here in this room here a lot of equities around is another way to play the market Adrian days you're a guy working on that side of it yeah he turned a manager's our goal fund he's done a fantastic job so I guess my credit is being smart enough to hire Adrian instead of doing it myself but yeah you know in fact I was looking at the Gold Sox so far you know this year in January gold stocks were down even though the price of gold is up and the last time this happened in the January where you had a strong bull market and a weak gold stock market was January of 2000 20 years ago and that was the bottom of a 20-year bear market in gold that was the peak of the Nasdaq stock market bubble and that's when you had this much negativity in the mining sector so I think that's a good sign because if you faded that if you load it up on gold stocks in January 2000 and sold you know the US stock market particularly the Nasdaq you made a killing because the Nasdaq went down to 80% over two years and gold began a ten-year bull market gold stocks where gold stocks you know we're 10x so this looks like that time to me so this is a great time to be buying my gold fund your Pacific gold foot is EP GFX is the symbol you made another comment here I want to get back in the political realm about Bernie having basically the primary rip from him but it shows a lot of support for this so with no cases of socialism really ever working in a Trump economy going so strong where's the disconnect here well that's because the strong Trump economy isn't growing strong right it's just part of the myth and I think the Sanders voters feel that right in their own lives and a lot of I think the disgruntled Democrats - voted Trump don't feel that they're any better off now than they were when Trump was elected so I think they may unfortunately be tempted by socialism and that's one thing that's constant socialism never works but it never loses its appeal no matter how many times it fails people still want to have faith in it right they still want to believe this nonsense and what generally happens is the Socialists say that the people who tried it in the past just did it wrong all right that's all they weren't they weren't as good well-meaning or as caring or laymen whatever you know or they'll try to hold up other economies as being socialist like Sweden or Norway and not mention the fact that they were more prosperous before they turned towards socialism and that more recently over the last decade or more they've been moving in the opposite direction they becoming less socialistic because of the problems that socialism created in those economies a great example is New Zealand I mean New Zealand the 80s was the poster child for socialist you know the midway between capitalism and socialism right a nicer kind of capitalism with all that and they bankrupted themselves but now New Zealand has one of the most competitive economies in the world and it's done really well because they rejected most of that and they you know took on more free market oriented reforms so you know the countries that have really went all-in on socialism those are the basket cases of the world right that's your your Venezuela's right people are suffering we you take a prosperous economy and then you you you fall into this socialist trap and yes you you create equality by destroying the wealth of everybody so 2020 a couple predictions from you what will this decade be about how do you see it well this is gonna be an inflationary decade it's gonna be a tough decade I think it's gonna be worse than the 70s it'll probably be worse than the 30s as far as you know what's gonna happen economically politically you know that could be the worst part of it I mean if this permanently shifts us to a socialist type of comedy even not I mean much more so than we have been in the past that would be a real disaster I mean the one optimist take you no note I guess is if things get so bad if we don't really Trump and we do elect Sanders or somebody and things get so obviously worse over the next four years that we can get a candidate that is charismatic enough and that can you know maybe you know hit a strike a chord a similar chord than the one Trump struck but for really making America great again I mean really cutting government and having sound money and doing all the necessary things that can be done I mean maybe it could be a springboard to you know some type of you know a resurrection in America or a good morning or something like that but I don't know that could just be the optimistic part of me thinking that we have that chance I mean we may have to be socialist for a generation or two I don't know what what advice would you give to the Trump White House as far as finance goes well I wish I could give advice to the Trump White House but they wouldn't take it you know in fact I know some of the people who advise Trump and it's unfortunate that you know he's getting such bad advice in fact a lot of these guys that would be very critical of Trump's policies if Trump were a Democrat are now talking about how great the policies are because he's a Republican so go figure okay always a always inspirational Peter Schiff chef gold I don't follow you Peter oh you follow me on Twitter or Facebook just Peter chef's shift radio is my podcast or on my youtube channel shift report your pacific capital is my broker-dealer europe a calm is the URL and yeah shift gold if you want to buy some physical gold and silver okay reshoot that Peter chef's thank you you
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