저자: RayDalio · 외국인
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2022년 9월 인플레이션 위기 관련 영상으로, 레이 달리오는 인플레이션을 계기로 투자자·소비자 사고방식이 근본적으로 바뀌는 '패러다임 전환'이 진행 중이라고 주장한다. 핵심 주장: 40년간 지속된 채권 강세장 이후 채권 매도가 금리 상승과 추가 인플레이션을 자기강화적으로 키우고 있다. 근거 1: 2020년 팬데믹 대응으로 각국 재정·통화 부양이 막대하게 집행됨. 맥킨지 집계 글로벌 부양 10조 달러 이상, 이 중 약 2조 달러가 중앙은행 조치, 이탈리아는 GDP의 40%에 달하는 부양책. 근거 2: 연준 2022년 7월 연구도 과도한 부양책이 현재 인플레이션에 기여했다고 결론. 공급망 차질(2020년 말부터)과 2022년 초 러시아의 우크라이나 침공에 따른 에너지 가격 급등이 추가 요인. 전망: 달리오는 인플레이션이 몇 달~1년 내 정점을 찍고 둔화될 가능성에 무게를 두지만, 이는 연준이 심각한 경기침체(매우 심각한 recession)를 감수해야 가능하다고 봄. 리스크: 연준이 스스로 '궁지에 몰린' 상황이며, 인플레이션을 잡으면 심각한 침체, 못 잡으면 지속적 인플레이션이라는 딜레마. 출연자 전망 요약: 단기 인플레이션 둔화 가능성 우세, 그러나 침체 비용이 큼.
다듬은 글
oh I'm uh I'm I don't know like uh an eight an eight to ten or something like that um um we're beginning a paradigm shift uh a paradigm shift um is a shift from um a mindset one mindset and positioning of that mindset to another mindset and another positioning of that um so for example the mindset that we were in was that you have low inflation and um when you're owning bonds and you're owning cash or um you are operating One Way um and you don't worry about that and companies don't worry about it in their inventories having larger inventories or homeowners don't worry about inflation as much in the purchases of the houses and so on once that shift begins it causes a reinforcing Dynamic it's like everybody is long bonds we've been in a 40-year bull market in bonds and so it's been fine to have and when that shift starts to take place you see behavioral shifts that reinforce that cycle in the Paradigm so for example when there is the selling of bonds that it makes it more inflationary in and of itself because the amount of debt that has to be sold is not just the deficit but also the amount that the debt that's being sold is those bonds so now interest rates have to rise a lot or the Federal Reserve has got to come in there and buy more that was Ray dalio's response to the question how concerned are you about inflation right now dalio sees a fundamental shift in the mindset of how investors and consumers think about inflation and behave in the economy and markets a big change is coming and its cause is inflation inflation is a tricky concept its definition is simple but its underlying causes are complex the textbook definition of inflation is a broad increase in prices in other words inflation is equivalent to a decrease in the purchasing power of money the giant fixed income asset manager Pimco explained that inflation poses a stealth threat to investors because it ships away at real savings and investment returns most investors aim to increase their long-term purchasing power inflation puts this goal at risk because investment returns must first keep up with the rate of inflation in order to increase real purchasing power inflation has been on the minds of investors from all over the world over the past few months the times recently reported that in the UK the inflation rate ended above 10 percent meanwhile in the U.S the rate at which prices rise was 8.5 percent in July slightly down from June but still quite high from a year ago even Emerging Markets like Nigeria are seeing High inflation is inflation temporary or is it here to stay that is the question that everyone is trying to figure out UBS Chief Economist Paul Donovan in a recent article for the world economic Forum put the emphasis on Russia's invasion of Ukraine as being the main reason for why prices have been increasing all over the world however the situation is not quite as simple and Donovan acknowledges this the current high level limitation has been provoked by the extraordinary demand for goods in 2021 as countries emerged from lockdowns shops opened and people were able to go out and buy stuff with money saved during weeks of economic inactivity Donovan said the measures implemented by governments in central banks during the covid-19 pandemic namely higher public spending and easier monetary policy were sold to the public as necessary tools to support economies and financial markets during the government imposed lockdowns governments borrowed in order to put money in the bank accounts of consumers and to prop up businesses that needed liquidity to survive given the total shutdown of the world's economy central banks cut interest rates and some of the most important ones such as the Federal Reserve and the bank of England directly pumped money into the economy through various instruments here are some headlines from back then Federal Reserve unleashes unlimited treasury purchase plan the financial times 23rd in March 2020.
the Federal Reserve just pledged asset purchases with no limit to support markets CNBC 23rd of March 2020. Bank of England Cuts interest rates to all-time low of 0.1 percent the guardian 19th of March 2020. European Central Bank nearly doubles pandemic support scheme DW 6th of June 2020. covid-19 drives UK national debt to 210 pounds for first time the guardian 21st of August 2020.
fed commits to keep buying bonds until the economy gets back to full employment cnbc's 16th of December 2020 and the list can go on and on but you get the picture a lot of money was borrowed created out of nothing and pumped into the financial markets and the economy to keep liquidity and GDP levels as undisrupted as possible well that's a big question of course uh the inflation's here so we for I'll say two years from 2020 to uh and over the course of 2021 there was a big debate in economics and among analysts about inflation versus maybe disinflation you still have inflation but at a lower rate um and that that debate kind of went on through uh all of uh most of 2021 but that's over inflation's here there's no more debate about the new debate is will it persist will it get worse which it might or will it um be subdued in some way now I have actually been in the camp again you can see the inflation coming it's here it's going to persist for a while uh that's you know that's the big question we'll be we'll kind of tell off quickly over the next few months or will it kind of be the Domino thing for 2021 sorry 2022.
I definitely lean to the latter however going out you know maybe nine months to a year I see that curve bending and getting into a more disinflationary mode not for good reasons um has very uh what does have to do with the FED in the sense that um they painted themselves into a corner there's no way to escape the room they can subdue the inflation but at the cost of a very severe recession not a mild recession very severe recession in June of 2020 Global consultancy business McKinsey and Company reported that Global governmental stimulus response to the pandemic exceeded 10 trillion dollars from this about 2 trillion were the result of central bank's actions the amount of money pushed into economies and markets was magnitudes bigger than during the 0708 financial crisis some countries like Italy saw its stimulus packages as high as 40 percent of the country's GDP think about that the pump money of a quantity equal to 40 percent of the nation's economic output such actions surely increase the risk of sustained higher inflation however Ray dalio explained in his popular book principles of navigating debt Cycles it matters if the new money fills in a hole left by some sort of destruction of old purchasing power what this means in the context of the covid-19 pandemic and lockdowns is that if the purchasing power or the money in credit which was destroyed due to these Health Care measures was equal to the amount of the stimulus packages then inflation would not have been a risk however we now know for sure that what the authorities have done in response to the pandemic was far too much more money than needed were printed and pushed into the economy and financial markets the Federal Reserve in a study published in July 2022 agreed with this view concluding the stimulus packages implemented by public authorities during the pandemic contributed to the increase of inflation that we are witnessing today across many countries it didn't help that Supply chains the actual part of the economy that delivers raw materials and manufactured goods so the demand can be made were disrupted for months after the worst of the pandemic was over strains in global production networks which started to emerge in late 2020 are a reflection of imbalances between the supply and demand of certain goods and are creating headwinds for the ongoing global economic Recovery Road officials from the European Central Bank in late 2021 delays in delivering goods and raw materials meant that his demand recovered in economies across the world the supply that ought to emit that demand remained muted adding further pressure on prices on top of this in early 2022 Russia invaded Ukraine leading to massive chaos across energy markets as Western Nations have responded to sanctions on Russian officials and the Russian economy which in turn has stopped the supply of key Commodities such as Natural Gas this sent Energy prices through the roof across many developed Nations that were dependent on Russian energy especially in Europe all these factors have led to inflation across major economies inflation is at levels unseen in decades and policy makers are grappling with the new reality whereas dalio said with the paradigm shift but can they fight inflation without producing an ugly recession or even a depression let us know what you think in the comments below if you liked this video make sure you give it a thumbs up subscribe to our growing Channel and hit that Bell icon for future updates
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