저자: MichaelBurry · 외국인
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부동산 시장이 역사적으로 큰 침체에 빠질 가능성이 높다고 보고, 그 대안으로 상대적으로 안전한 투자처를 소개한다. 부동산 시장 전망: 현재 시장 상황이 주거용 주택 가격의 큰 하락을 시사하며, 정확한 시점은 알 수 없지만 기다려주지 않을 것이라는 주장. 안전자산 1 - 국채(T-bill, T-note, T-bond): 미국 정부가 발행해 원금 회수 가능성이 높고, 고정 금리·고정 만기를 제공. 단기는 4~52주, 중기는 2·10년, 장기는 20~30년물. 장기 투자에서 수익률이 가장 높을 수 있음. 안전자산 2 - MMF(머니마켓펀드): 국채, CD, 기업어음 등 단기 안전자산에 투자. 원금 손실 가능성이 매우 낮다고 설명. 안전자산 3 - CD(양도성예금증서): 3개월~10년 만기, 평균 0.2~1.72% 금리, 신용협동조합은 최대 6%. FDIC 25만 달러까지 보장되나 중도 인출 시 페널티 존재. 성장형 자산: 인덱스 펀드(S&P500 등 주식시장 추종, 장기 수익률 양호하나 인내 필요), 장수기업(longevity) 주식(2022년 같은 어려운 해에도 분기 흑자·다각화된 수익원·양의 현금흐름을 유지한 기업), 저가 생필품 기업이 경기침체에 강하고 명품 기업은 약하다는 관점. 배당주: 배당수익률 기준으로 선별하되 8% 이상은 사기 신호일 수 있다고 경고. S&P500 장기 평균 배당수익률 약 1.84%. 코카콜라(2.9%, 주당 연 184원 예시 - 원문 달러 기준 $184) 등 예시. 부동산 대안: 직접 주택 매매(플리핑) 대신 수익형 부동산 리츠(REIT) 활용을 권장하며, 리스크 분산과 다수 투자자와의 위험 공유 강조. 결론: 분산투자(diversification)가 가장 중요하며 어떤 폭풍(주택 시장 폭락 포함)도 견딜 수 있는 포트폴리오를 구성하라는 메시지.
다듬은 글
we predict the real estate market is ready for a historically huge slowdown if you don't want to get blown away when the bubble bursts here are the best investments you can make that are safer than real estate what do we mean by a safe investment an asset where there is a high likelihood you'll get out of it what you expect despite Market volatility and Cycles nothing is a sure thing in investing as in life but there are certain things that are more likely to play out as expected than others real estate is usually a good pick because land is finite there are only so many properties and Parcels of land while the total population is rocketing up all the time over time the price of real estate goes up fairly consistently usually but these are not usual times the current conditions of the market tell us we're headed for a big drop in the market particularly in residential home values when that drop will happen exactly nobody knows but it won't wait forever if you don't feel like going along for the ride when the bubble bursts we have some safer investment suggestions for you and remember all things in moderation your best portfolio will likely be a combination of options not just one thing let's start with the safest options which will also have lower average returns we'll work our way up to riskier assets with bigger returns that are still a safer idea than real estate right now first socalled risk-free assets nothing is completely risk-free but things in this category are usually issued by the US government so long as the USA's government is not collapsed you will almost certainly get your money most of these assets are also called government securities government securities are a nice backbone to a portfolio because they offer fixed terms and fixed interest rates you know exactly how much you'll get back and when you'll get it there are three main types of Treasury back Securities treasury bills or t bills are the fastest to mature you can cash out in 4 8 13 26 or 52 weeks treasury notes take a little longer you can buy 2-year or 10year treasury notes treasury bonds are a very long-term investment you can buy bonds with terms of 20 to 30 years these usually have the highest returns so they can be worth it if you have a long investment Horizon government securities are also a great choice if you're looking for liquidity while it can take months or years to flip a housing investment there is a consistently available market for treasury Securities at any time you can sell your security if needed which is more than you can say about a residential asset on average it takes about 30 to 20 days to sell a home while a security can sell in as little as one day if these are way too tame for your taste there are some safe but not risk-free options with a higher rate of return in exchange for slightly more risk consider a money market mutual fund a mutual fund is a company that takes money from many investors combines the money and invests the whole pool in Securities like stocks bonds and short-term debt what makes a money market mutual fund great safe option in this category is that it does not include stocks or risky debt Investments money markets mostly purchase treasury bills certificates of deposit otherwise known as CDs which we'll talk about more in a moment and Commercial paper these are short-term promissary notes issued by companies basically an IOU except it's legally binding money markets invest in commercial paper because the company has to pay the amount back in a fixed term which is usually pretty short the company can only get out of it if they go bankrupt money markets tend to to purchase things that have almost guaranteed returns however notice we said almost like other mutual funds a money market cannot guarantee earnings for instance the company that issued the commercial paper could go bankrupt but the nice thing about a money market is you are extremely unlikely to lose your principal investment unlike many other Investments especially real estate where it is not uncommon for prices to drop below what you purchased an asset for another safe option is certificates of deposit or or CDs these offer a range of terms varying anywhere between 3 months to 10 years so they're great if you know when you want your money back they also have decent interest rates the average CD pays 0.2% to 1.72% apy with higher interest rates for longer term CDs while that doesn't sound impressive many financial institutions offer higher CD rates than this average credit unions offer up to 6% CDs to their members CDs are insured by the FDIC up to $250,000 and you are guaranteed the return of your initial investment however this option is not good if you're looking for liquidity early withdrawal means penalty fees or loss of interest if these options aren't making your heart race with their low interest rates let's look at some Investments that promise higher growth while still being safer than real estate is likely to be in 2024 index funds are always a solid addition to any portfolio they work a lot like the money markets we discussed earlier except they include risk riskier higher growth options like stocks index funds are designed to follow the E and flow of the stock market while the stock market is risky it's not set to implode like the real estate market is and index funds have a historically good return over time an index fund might require some patience though so keep that in mind if you pull out your money at the first sign of a recession you're likely to take a loss the next best option is to buy stocks with longevity these stocks are from companies that are likely to stick around with income streams that are likely to stick around as well this means avoiding fads like the latest Silicon Valley Wonder child or hyped up controversial options like crypto remember we're suggesting safer options for you it can be good to have a section of your portfolio for riskier choices but if you're looking for something safer than real estate find stocks that have had historically good returns you want things that have previously survived a recession you can look at a company's performance in 2022 to determine if they will continue to give good returns in the coming recession 2022 was a bad year for a lot of companies but not all take take a look at the stock you're interested in and ask yourself the following questions did they make a profit every quarter did they have an income year round do they have multiple income streams that are performing were they able to maintain a positive cash flow despite the recession if the answer is yes to all these questions the company is likely to do well in the next recession too companies that sell low price items often do well in a recession consumer desire for inexpensive food jumps up during a recession for instance conversely luxury items do worse in a recession so might not be the time to invest in fancy Yachts Incorporated another good option that is safer than real estate is dividend stocks a dividend stock pays out a percentage of earnings to a company's shareholders they can be paid out in cash or as additional stock they're usually paid out quarterly although it can vary as determined by the company's board of directors dividend stocks are evaluated according to their dividend yield this is the Stock's annual dividend per share divided by its current share price dividend stocks are a good addition to a portfolio if you select dividend stocks with a history of actually paying out if a company is offering over 8% yield run away that amount of earnings payout often signals something scammy going on since a company should be using most of their profits to reinvest in the company or make other Investments to grow their net worth the S&P 500 dividend yield long-term average is 1.84% so you're looking at something more in that range for a good yield if you pick a high performing stock that also Awards dividends it pays off big time not only will you get the return of the stock price price rising over time but the stock will actually pay you however you will probably need to make a large investment to see a dividend check worth speaking of for example Coca-Cola has a very good dividend yield of 2.9% and pays out $184 on each share annually you need 544 Coca-Cola shares to receive $1,000 in dividends Coca-Cola Shares are not the most expensive on the market bouncing between around $50 and $65 this year so if you have a sizable portfolio this is possible but as you can can see a dividend stock is not worth it unless it also performs well as far as its stock price over time luckily the best dividend stocks are often also good longevity stocks so you can benefit both ways if you feel like you're missing out on the real estate market despite the impending bubble and you still want to get in on the safest way possible there are some things you can do avoid the residential Market especially buying houses simply to flip them instead consider a real estate investment trust or Reit these are funds that invest in incom producing real estate assets like apartments and commercial buildings they don't rely on sales price to make money for you although buying and selling may still be a part of their portfolio being in an Reit spreads risk since these portfolios contain many different properties made up of different styles of investment you also share the risk with other investors as opposed to you taking on everything as the sole landlord or seller for the property the most important thing in any investment strategy is diversity a diversified portfolio can weather any storm even the up coming housing market crash if you have a good siiz portfolio in the six figures and you're wondering what you should do to turn it into a million dollars watch this video
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