저자: BearBullTraders진행자 · 외국인
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시장 전반이 위험회피(risk-off) 국면으로, 주식·채권·상품이 동반 하락한 날이라는 진단. QQQ와 IWM은 고점 대비 20% 이상 하락해 약세장 영역에 진입했고, 하이일드 회사채(HYG) 스프레드 확대는 유동성 경색 신호로 해석됨. 과거 2008, 2016, 2018~2019 사례를 언급하며 비교. 마이클 배리의 13F 공시를 분석, 보유 규모(약 7억 달러)와 신고 주식(약 7,500만 달러) 간 괴리를 근거로 신용부도스왑(CDS)이나 주식스왑 등 숏 포지션 가능성을 추측. 다음 분기 공시에서 확인 필요하다고 함. 자금 흐름 지표(MFI)상 지난주 QQQ·IWM에 자금 유입이 나타나 바닥 가능성을 언급하나, 지정학 리스크(중국 상하이 봉쇄, 러-우크라이나 전쟁)로 바닥 판단은 어렵다고 봄. 이번 주 연준 FOMC 회의(화~수)를 주요 변수로 꼽고, 금리 인상기 주식 상승이라는 통상 패턴과 달리 이번 국면은 이례적이라고 평가. 중국 기술주(BABA, JD)는 반등 실패 후 하락 지속. 약세장은 통상 수백 일 지속된다는 견해를 밝히며 단기 리스크 관리와 숏 편향 매매를 조언.
다듬은 글
another massacre today in a market officially bear marketing qq and iwm iwm has been in bear markets uh in january queues closed in bear territory 20 down from their highs that's insane so look at the day look at the daily i mean today we opened green you open you traded in the morning every everything was good we talked about europe you know europe was positive but then it just started selling off like all the way down almost identical to all the indexes i talked about it in my twitter i said today was a real risk off day like we talked a lot about risk off risk on but today was one of those days because bond sold off dollar sold off equity sold off when you get correlated sell-off all across the board that's usually so the risk on the risk of so the the different asset class equities bond markets uh what else uh commodities commodities so these are different asset classes yeah the risk on means that investors put their money in there and they have confidence like equity market that is setting up that doesn't mean that the bond market sells up but today we saw that the all asset class sold off so means that nobody has confidence so everybody wants to go back to cash and that is dangerous that's that's that's dangerous yeah so these these are usually like there's like different correlations like when equity sells off you expect bond to rally right people are putting their money back into the safe haven asset 10 years stuff like that today everything sold off so so what does that mean had we had anything like this before back in 20 2020 2016 that we had a high grade so yeah yeah you know i talked about it in in the chat room uh one of the things we want to look at is hyg the high-yield corporate bond whenever the the junk bond base basically the high yield means junk bonds so companies with like triple b ratings not not not so great ratings whenever you see selloff there that means the spread is widening that's that's that's usually a signal for a lot of money managers that hey they got to take the feed on the on the stuff you know they got so the companies that are not solid and they issue bonds they're high yield because they pay better return because they're not solid they're not treasury bills yeah exactly and nobody wants to be in there no it means that the growth outlook is really bad i mean check out the hyg this is our trading terminal like look at look at the sell-off in hyg and you know i mean if you want to compare this type of sell-off just go ahead and look at hyg from quite a while ago this this is 2008.
so we had a nightmare in 2008. so that was the financial crisis we were getting there we had another one in 2016. that was the time that uh the rates there was a rate increase yeah uh i think this was trump taking taking office and and the first first kind of cycle of rate hikes so that was the first cycle yeah so we had this some serious uh dude that's a monthly chart so that means that we had some serious setting up but on the monthly chart uh it bounced back and eventually went up uh significantly and again we had another one in 2019.
what was that one for 2019 i think this is the this is the crash of the kovac and then this one 2018. this was another rate hike cycle there was another one right there 2016 and 2018 bull freight rate red hux cycle so this is basically this signals liquidity andrew whenever there is a liquidity crunch in the market where corporations are like hey wait a minute in this environment we can't raise money these things are going to be hard uh this this this is when the spreads start widening because nobody want to lend banks don't want to lend you're an investor you don't want to lend i mean we have a fund right yeah i know it's uh people reach out to us recently and we said no because there is no liquidity right now that nobody wants to spare exactly we get pitched all the time so it's crazy but it's interesting because a few weeks ago the 13f filings came out and 13 filings for those who don't know if you're a fund manager managing more than 100 million dollar you have to every quarter you have to file out your positions what stocks you're holding whether you're in cash or not and michael berry the big short investor dr michael berry yeah dr mike berry who's been on and off twitter all the time coming in coming up his twitter is at cassandra i think yeah cassandra yeah i think so yeah so dr michael berry was the first person who defined the credit default swap which is essentially shorting the housing market by inventing something called credit default swap there was nothing something that before too short and he started paying the premiums until the mortgage bonds you know failed and then his his default swap become became valuable the swaps were common for like corporate bonds but there were no credit default software mortgage bonds because they were so secure they were backed by the government or quasi agencies so he actually created credit fossil for mortgage funds i remember that scene in big short that he went to morgan and stanley and the guy said yeah we sell you as much as credit default swap that you want for mortgage banks they made fun of him well this is interesting andrew because i looked i looked through his certina filings as you know i spent a lot of time looking through these numbers and i i think i found the gem he managed about 700 million so almost a billion as you can see over here but he's 13 of filing only shows 74 million and these 13 filings if you're holding any swaps you don't have to actually declare it you don't have to talk about it so people are speculating that he has some kind of equity swap probably shorting the market because as you can see he sold everything he sold his cvs he sold his lmc uh pretty much read everywhere so andrew what are you doing so all the funds over 100 million dollars they have to report their earnings with sec yeah and he has 700 million dollars but there's only 75 million dollars asset plus cash yeah so where is the other 600 million dollars there are in some trades that you don't have to report maybe they created default sua and the usually credited defaults are shorting you know their insurance right their insurance exactly so it could be either equity swap equity swap it could be long but i don't think he's doing long equity swaps i think i think it's short so this is for the quarter ending i think it says it here so this is for q4 of 2021.
so this is his position as of december 31st 2021. well we already had two months of crash so he might have he might have addicted this one yeah he might have already cashed in a lot of uh a lot of money so the next one would be end of uh for the end of march probably the next quarter yeah so 31st of march the quarter ends and he has 90 days to declare it so you you'll probably get it sometimes in april or may and it's very interesting because i think uh the top buys that he had the bmi is uh is the oil company yeah bristol mayors i'm not sure i don't know i think so that's very interesting so if that's dr michael berry according to this if he had credit default swap in december or the last quarter of the year he was expecting a crash and we are in a bear market in qq and iwm and that's very interesting it's interesting so the big question is are we heading into a big short style sell-off or no we're going to find the bottom and rally so the feds are meeting this week yeah i mean but there is there is one thing your qqq and iwm are in the bear territory it means that they are below 20 of their uh highs yeah qqq in january and iwm was in november but there is a positive inflow of money in them there's there is something called the money flow index that uh for many months from arc for example there was an outflow this is a volume and price you can do these calculations people were taking their money out of the fund for iwm and qqq what we saw last week there is actually inflow of capital going into these two funds maybe that's the bottom that people start buying you know low price good companies or you know potential opportunities it could be it's it's it's tough to call a bottom when there is a geopolitical yeah so the china like now so we have a couple of big geopolitical situations that can absolutely take us to another very serious sell-off the china locked down the juan joe province shanghai is in there i have a friend in shanghai he actually messaged me last before he hits the news that yeah they're shutting down everything he sent me the videos and stuff and uh yeah shanghai is the largest city isn't locked down this schools are closed and today apple sold off because of the exposure to app to china and also some of their facilities production facility uh stopped working because of that and then we have the russian ukraine there are peace talks going but we don't know exactly what's happening in the peace talks uh and it's been two weeks they're going on so they're we have some good and we have the high crates uh you know the interest rate hikes that this week the feds are meeting so it's gonna be interesting i mean with this type of sell-off in the corporate bond market it will be it'll be really interesting to see how that's going to kind of tighten there's going to be some liquidity crunch we should do a live on the meeting app essentially i think they start meeting to us tuesday and they release the statement on wednesday so we know what's going to happen i mean traditionally what we saw that's during the you know interest rate hike the stocks are going up um but this is just a very unusual situation we have another wave of lockdown and we have a war in europe so we're going to see how it goes you'll be crazy yeah well we got norm and mike coming to our office so lots of good stuff happening yeah no one micah we might have you know some discussions all together with ryan and we'll see how it goes the volatility is amazing for day trading obviously for investors and long-term holds are a little bit panicky but uh it's interesting this is my second bear market that i'm experiencing you know and to some extent like the biggest one was 2020 which was really fun to trade it's a fast fair market fast bear market and a v-shaped recovery the bear markets in the past traditionally takes about i've read somewhere 250 days so if you're entering a bear market uh so maybe we are 30 days into that so we might have a you know few more months six more months of bear market and see how it goes uh but overall it's a good time to be a trader but managing risk is very important and chinese stocks like baba and jd they got destroyed but they couldn't hold the rally and they just continue went down unfortunately that's crazy we'll see how it goes we'll see how it goes yeah we'll be here making more content for you guys hopefully this helps your trading i mean with this type of content when we do like really deep dive like sometimes people ask me hey but i'm a day trader why would that impact me well because you know if the market is like this you should be a short biased trader so these these type of macro analysis and stuff that we do usually can also help you intraday as well so that's a lot of information in the in in this at least for me obviously for our fund as well but uh overall uh the more you know about the markets overall it's better for you even if you're a scalper but let's see how it goes and if you have any questions guys leave it in the comments for us and we try to make this better and better for you yeah yeah see you next one see you thank you so much
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