저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 피터 쉬프는 정부 부채 확대와 연준의 인위적 부양으로 거품이 형성되고 있으며, 이 거품이 터지면 채권 시장 붕괴, 금리 급등, 통제 불능 인플레이션이 올 것이라고 주장한다. 책 소개: 아버지 피터 쉬프의 저서를 바탕으로 한 신간 'How an Economy Grows and Why It Crashes'를 소개한다. 3인 섬 경제 예시로 저축·투자·생산성을 설명하며, 루스벨트·존슨 이후 현대 사례(주택 거품, 오바마, 부시, 그린스펀, 버냉키의 부양책)까지 다룬다. 약 250쪽, 2시간 내 독파 가능이라고 한다. 경제 전망: 현재 부양은 주식·부동산 거품과 달리 '정부 거품'이며, 실물 가치가 거의 없는 사회주의적 대형 프로그램과 규제만 남긴다고 비판한다. 연방 부채는 약 12.5~13조 달러이고 만기 도래분 차환까지 합치면 매년 대규모 채권 발행이 필요하다. 사회보장기금도 적자로 전환되어 채권 매각이 필요하다고 지적한다. 미국민 전망: 고용 기회와 삶의 질이 점점 악화될 것이며, 문화 개혁이 없으면 '노예의 길(Road to Serfdom)'로 간다고 주장한다. 젊은 인재의 해외 이민이 대안이 될 수 있다고 언급하고, 미국이 시민권 포기자에게도 세금을 부과하는 점을 비판한다. 대학 학자금: 연방 대출 보조가 대학 등록금을 끌어올리는 원인이라고 본다. 보조금이 없어지면 대학이 가격을 낮출 수밖에 없다고 주장하며, 오바마의 학자금 대출 개편과 탕감 확대는 등록금 상승을 더 부추긴다고 비판한다. 정치·출마: 소비 부양과 부채 확대가 경제 번영이라는 정치권·주류 언론의 주장을 비판한다. 상원 선거에서 적자 감축과 지출 삭감, 부채 한도 상향 저지, 필리버스터를 공약으로 내세운다. 경쟁자들은 세금 인하만 말하고 지출 문제는 피한다고 비판한다. 투자 관련: 영상에서 개별 종목·지수·금리·환율에 대한 구체적 가격 전망이나 매매 추천은 나오지 않았다. 금리 급등과 채권 시장 붕괴 가능성만 장기 경고로 언급되었다.
다듬은 글
this is the lubricant sugar well what an honor it is to have Peter Schiff on our show this morning one of the most popular guests ever and for a good reason Peter is a great TV star among all his other accomplishments in teaching people about Austrian economics about the Austrian business cycle theory no one has been more eloquent and more effective than Peter Schiff he also is the head and founder of euro pacific capital a very successful firm in connecticut he is a great spokesman continues to be a great spokesman for Austrian economics and sound money in a different venue he's running for the Republican nomination to replace the guy I always think of as crook Dodd but Peter before we get into those questions let's talk about your new book this is coming up and it's people can pre-order it on Amazon right now it's due out in about two weeks how an economy grows and why it crashes yeah I mean that has a book basically my father wrote a book called how an economy grows and why it doesn't which actually was taken from his book the biggest con how the government is fleecing you and you know over time a lot of people you know really liked that book I mean it kind of got a little bit of a cultish status because it explained economics in a very simple way using you know three people on an island you know fishing by hand and it kind of showed how their economy grew based on under investment in savings and it talks about a capital investment and productivity and and then my father of course you know had the island society get more complex and ultimately the government ruined it and and so I decided to expand that and really incorporate more of the modern experience bringing it up you know not just through Roosevelt Johnson which is kind of where my dad left off but bring in all the experiences of recent years with a housing bubble with Obama with bush with Greenspan and Bernanke was stimulus and and all these things and just trying to present an explanation of economics and our current problems in a way that average people with no real background the economic could read it and understand it and I think this book does that I think it's you know there's humor there it's Illustrated it's not you know you can read the whole book in under two hours I think it's about 250 pages and I hopefully it will do a lot to raise the level of understanding in our country hopefully we can sell a lot of books in Connecticut you know where I'm running for Senate maybe it'll help my Senate campaign if we get enough of those books out there well Peter I'm one of those who've always loved your dad's book I've had a copy for many years I've loaned it to many people it's just an extraordinary way to learn economics I your dad is a great hero and also a great orator I guess that must be genetic in part because you're a great orator too but this book is so extraordinary I just can't tell you how thrilling it is to have it back in print and also updated it's gonna do a lot of they were selling them on that one is the king of malt they'd sell them for you know $100 $200 on Amazon right so this will be good and yummy I've got a bunch of copies to other Kingdom also I gotta figure out what I'm gonna do I have a few thousand copies in my garage so either I'll review that one or maybe I'll sell the ones that I have because I know there's a lot of demand for that little book that's that's right and Peter you know your great expert in the economy you've been teaching about what's wrong with what the Federal Reserve does what the just the unbelievable deficits questions of debt otherwise in society what what do you see ahead for this economy is it really as the as the mainstream media keep telling us really we're on a rebound we're getting better and better every day or is that something else not it that's gonna happen you know the government is simply inflating another bubble only this time it's not a stock market bubble or a real estate bubble it's a government bubble and this one is going to do even more damage because at least in the dot-com bubble we did manage to create some companies that had some value I mean there was a lot of junk there but there were a lot of good companies maybe their stock prices got too high but we have some companies we did benefit from some what what some of the things that happened in the dot-com era and certainly in the real estate we may have built too many houses but at least we got them I mean people have places to live it's better than just an empty lot so we have real value there but the government bubble is buying us nothing but socialism big programs we can't afford and don't need more mega regulation it's gonna hurt the economy even more and of course when this gigantic bubble burst which of course will manifest itself with a collapse in the bond market and skyrocketing interest rates and runaway inflation it's going to be much worse for the country and of course there's no bailout and no stimulus that will work when the the balar in this is itself looking for a bailout well they've got to sell this year what two trillion dollars worth of federal federal bonds well that's just like the new bonds what about all the bonds that mature you know the national debt is about twelve and a half or thirteen trillion and a good part of that debt comes view every year you know they're not 30-year bonds most of that debt is one or two year maturities through your maturity so every year a substantial piece of debt matures so we probably have to sell two billion and new debt and maybe we have to finance two or three or to two trillion and then we'd probably have to finance two or three trillion in maturing debt I mean so the amount of money that we have to borrow on an annual basis is staggering and what's more important four years Social Security was collecting more in taxes and it paid out in benefit so the government was able to take some of that extra Social Security money and spend it but now Social Security is running a deficit so now not only does the Treasury have to sell bonds to finance the budget but the Social Security trust funds have to sell their bonds to pay to make Social Security payments so so we're we're in a pickle so what do you I mean what do you see ahead for like the average American I mean what's what's going to happen what should the average guy in Connecticut for example do to try to protect himself in this environment register Republican and vote for me in the primary but you know he should also try to you know plan for the fact that I might not win in which case this situation isn't going to turn around I think that it's going to be very difficult I think the standard for most Americans is going to be diminishing overtime the employment opportunities are going to be diminishing the quality of life in this country is going to be eroding it is not a pretty picture unless we can seriously change the culture in Washington because we are you know almost you know we're way down on that Road to Serfdom I mean there might be one more fork left that we can we could fake but it is very dangerous what's happening and you know for a lot of people unfortunately the answer might be emigration you know a lot of younger people who want to work hard and who are ambitious and want to make something otherwise unfortunately you know it's more difficult here now than it is in other countries and it's only going to get more difficult in the years ahead if we continue with this agenda Peter I know myself some smart successful young people who haven't have emigrated but of course the government maybe I guess the US government may be the only one in the world that attempts to tax you after you leave the country even if you give up your citizenship and are earning no money in this country yeah you know the US government you know is trying to punish people who want to leave and that shows you that how bad our policies are and that there are people who are willing to leave and still pay the punishment they're willing to pay the tax just to get that albatross around their neck I mean at one point a US citizenship was something that was highly coveted now people have to pay to get rid of it Peter one of the great areas that you've talked about and have been in such a such a bringer of light to a very dark situation is what's happened to college students the average college student today comes out with a vast load of debt or his parents are partially impoverished by paying for the whole thing but this is not just something that descended from the moon it's a result of federal policies as you pointed out of course I mean the politicians in order to get the votes of the young people and of course this is part all part of probably lowering the voting age down to 18 you know if we would have raised their voting age maybe to twenty five or thirty none of this would have happened and kids would be in a lot better shape today but of course too devote to the college students what the politicians promise is loans to make college more affordable and of course that sounds great to a seven eighteen year old kid nineteen year old kid who really doesn't understand anything if someone's going to give them money that's that's a good thing but what they don't understand is the reason the college is so expensive is because of all those loans if the loans didn't exist then the students wouldn't be able to pay these inflated prices now they might have to get a job and work their way through college like my dad did you know he went to college here in Connecticut he didn't get any money from his parents and he didn't borrow a nickel he took a summer job waiting tables and a lot of his friends worked their way through college it wasn't hard to do because college wasn't expensive well today most kids don't work their way through college they just borrow their way through college and then they work the next 20 years trying to pay off the loans you know it's much better to work a little bit while you're in school and graduate debt-free and so if we got the government out of the subsidy business then colleges would be forced to reduce prices to levels that students could actually afford and you know that would require lots of cops you know just like Airlines you know when the airlines can't fill their seats they have a sale there's never a sale at universities they never have 50% off failed on tuition how come if if if they get the loan stopped then no but no kids would apply and when the application is dried up the colleges would do the only thing that they can do slash prices and then of course they have to start asking their you know professors hey you know we got to cut your salary we can't pay you this much you know you're gonna have to grade your own papers you can't have all these you know assistants doing it you know and you know maybe we don't need this big fancy gymnasium maybe we should sell it I mean all this stuff is going to happen if the free market is unleashed but right now no university has to economize because the kids will pay whatever they charge because the government's going to make sure they have the money and now Obama is going to make it even worse Obama is ending guaranteed student loans and instead the government is gonna loan the money directly for the kids and the first thing that Obama said that he's gonna do is she's gonna make it so that the kids don't have to pay back as much money if they have to pay back now so now the kids will be willing to borrow even more money because the government says they're going to forgive a bigger poor alone which means the universities now have card blush to increase tuitions at an even faster rate peter widen why is the government in all areas of life it seems along with the mainstream media except for some truth tellers like you promoting the idea that everybody ought to spend spend spend go into debt to the extent they can and that's the path to prosperity well because they're trying to keep this phony economy going they're trying to you know a little more air into a deflating bubble remember our whole phony economy is based on spending borrowed money and so the minute the spending stops then the whole thing falls apart which of course has to happen eventually because you can't have an economy based on spending I mean because well we're spending other people's money and there we can only spend as long as they're willing to lend but they don't want to you know it's go through the difficult times it's like you know you're an alcoholic and you don't want to go through you know you withdraw your drug addict and so you just keep shooting up shooting up because you don't want to deal with the reality of having to go cold turkey so that's all the politicians care about is keep it going go deeper into debt buy more stuff we can't afford because we can pretend the economy is growing because all they point to for the economy is the GDP they look at retail sales they look at consumer spending and as long as that number is going up everybody is happening meanwhile the debt is going up even faster and that doesn't concern anybody Peter tell us about what's happening in Connecticut you're running for the Republican nomination you're running against an old-time congressman and the wife of a wrestling entrepreneur but you're the seems to me you're the only one as usual who's telling the truth about the economy is telling the truth about what we face and the sorts of issues that people ought to be concerned about so tell us what's happening yeah well I'm probably also the only candidate who understands the truth so that's you know why I'm speaking it but also most people who are running for political office are doing so because they they want to be in politics it's something that they see themselves doing they're trying to make a career out of it and so they have to be very political in the way they speak and what they say they can't risk offending anybody you know one of my opponents is always talking about cutting taxes all kinds of taxes she wants to cut and balancing the budget but on cutting spending not a word because this is afraid to step on somebody's toe if you ask her but what about cutting spending well let's have a bipartisan committee to look into that you know I mean it's not even an option just asking bipartisan committees I'm the only person who is actually speaking about the reality of the problems that government has run out of control that it's not about taxes it's about spending that the spending has to stop and it has to stop right now and that means cutting programs eliminating some cutting back on others slashing what the federal government is spending because it is spending like crazy the government is now spending twice as much as it spent 10 years ago that is unprecedented this is that this growth of government is similar only in proportion to the New Deal but the problem is when the New Deal started the government was tiny and even after the New Deal and it was still small but this time we took a gigantic government and made an enormous and the economy can't survive free enterprise capitalism cannot survive beneath the weight of all this government so I'm out there trying to win this race for Connecticut trying to win the race for the country to go to Washington and do what these career politicians will not do I mean I want to go there and I want to put my foot down I want to stop the national debt ceiling from being raised I want to filibuster that and I want to make sure every Republican or Democrat stands with me and stops just talking about balancing the budget in the future and does it right now and not just balancing it we need to bring it into surplus we need to make up for all these years of deficit Peter Schiff thanks so much for coming on the show thanks for all you do and I want to urge everybody to go ahead and order Peter's book how an economy grows and why it crashes which is an update of his dad's great book which at one of my favorite books ever about teaching real economics to people so thank goodness this book is going to be back in print improved and updated Peter thanks so much okay thank god you've been listening to the Lew Rockwell show produced by Lew Rockwell calm the best rent libertarian website in the world regrows and Wyatt crashes yeah I mean that has a book basically my father wrote a book called how an economy grows and why it doesn't which actually was taken from his book the biggest con how the government is fleecing you and you know over time a lot of people you know really liked that book I mean it kind of got a little bit of a cultish status because it explained economics in a very simple way using you know three people on an island you know fishing by hand and it kind of showed how their economy grew based on under investment and savings and it talked about this well what an honor it is to have Peter Schiff on our show this morning one of the most popular guests ever and for a good reason Peter is a great TV star among all his other accomplishments in teaching people about Austrian economics about the Austrian business cycle theory no one has been more eloquent and more effective than Peter Schiff he also is the head and founder of Euro Pacific Capital a very successful firm in Connecticut he is a great spokesman continues to be a great spokesman for Austrian economics and sound money in a different venue he's running for the Republican nomination to replace the guy I always think of as crook Dodd but Peter before we get into those questions let's talk about your new book this is coming up and it's people can pre-order it on Amazon right now it's due out in about two weeks how anaconda
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