저자: AdamHuon · 외국인
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결론: 금·원유는 상승 추세로 보유 유지, 다우는 2개월 말 신호 악화로 경계, 나스닥은 주간 신호 매도로 이탈 권고, S&P500은 50일선 이탈 여부를 주시하며 5월은 조정 가능성이 있다는 입장. 금: 6월물 금은 20% 상승한 상태이며 1936 수준의 ABX 등 금광주 롱을 유지하고, 1122에서 진입한 6월 금 선물(약 1229.5)은 삼각형 패턴 돌파로 상방 추가 상승을 예상, 8590 수준까지 여지가 있다고 봄. 워런 버핏의 마이너스 금리 관련 발언(은행 자금 인출)을 금 선호의 근거로 제시. 원유: WTI 추세는 상승이며 모든 트레이드 트라이앵글이 +90으로 강세, RSI는 약화 조짐이 있으나 50선 위. 32~42 구간을 바탕으로 52~50 목표를 제시하며, 단기간이 아닌 시간을 두고 도달할 것이라고 봄. 다우: 이중바닥 피벗 기준 174 부근까지 도달했고, 가격 상승과 에너지(RSI) 하락 다이버전스, 파라볼릭 하회로 부정적. '5월에 팔고 떠나라'는 격언이 올해에도 적용될 수 있다는 견해. 나스닥: 주간 트레이드 트라이앵글 매도 신호, 50선 아래, RSI·파라볼릭 모두 부정적 → 전량 이탈 권고, 사이클 고점 이후 하락 추가 예상. S&P500: 3개월 차트상 아직 긍정적이나 65 수준의 박스권, 파라볼릭 하회, 50선 이탈 여부를 핵심 관찰 지점으로 제시. 주간 트라이앵글 하향 돌파 시 약 250 부근에서 추가 하락 신호로 봄. 개별주: 아마존·구글은 혼조(구글 하락 추세), 애플은 박스권. 금광주 등 상승 추세 종목 위주로 선별 접근 권고. 출연자 전망: 아담 후온은 5월이 조심스러운 시기라고 보며 특정 시장이 더 오르지 않을 것 같은 느낌이라 언급하나, 신호를 기다리고 규율을 지켜야 한다고 강조.
다듬은 글
hello Market club members everywhere well it's the 2nd of May very excited about that we start a new trading month and it's hard to believe we've already had a third of the year just fly by and we've had some pretty big moves especially in gold gold is up 20% for the year as is many of the stocks gold already in minor stocks but uh this is ABX we talked about this on Friday about possibly being long for the weekend and you would have gotten along right in the close somewhere around here I would say around the 1936 level it's currently trading around 1936 so it's unchanged which is good we want the people who took the 52- wee High rule we want to be exiting this position tomorrow on the opening so let's see how that plays out but generally speaking we still like gold very much we think it's going to be up for most of the Year particularly with what happened today with Warren Buffett saying about taking the money out of the banks if they go to negative interest rates that is not a good sign so people are going to move into gold I think that's a more of a store of value for a lot of people but generally speaking we are overboard you can see we're way up towards 80 we may see a little bit of a pullback after tomorrow but or even today we'll just see how that works out but generally speaking let's go with the plan that's to be long up until tomorrow just on the shortterm trade if you're a long-term Trader you want to stay long because if you look at this stock scoop it out just a little bit further you can see we got long right here on the 7th which is the same January 7th at 8:33 and you can see it's you know it's doubled for when we recommended getting in and we've had no weekly signals you can see see the weekly signals none of them said to get out so generally speaking very very positive for this stock looking at crude on you can see crud LS had a nice move up a little bit more of a erratic move I should say because you've seen a kind of a choppy kind of scenario where you have a move where up down up down up maybe come down a little bit but generally speaking I think the trend for crude oil is on the all of our trade triangles are positive indicating a Plus 90 which is a strong upward Trend we're seeing a little bit of weakness coming into the RSI but nonetheless it's way above the 50 line which is a good sign indicating that we are going to move higher plus we've moved over this area this is a to me is a very important area you can measure really from the lows here 32 up to let's say we'll just call it 42 for uh discussion sake indicating we could potentially go up to 52 5052 on crude oil so that would be like where our Target is on the upside so still some nice room on the upside in this Mar Market in our opinion but it's not going to happen in one day two days it's going to happen over time much like a move like here over time and here over time so let's see how that plays out we're looking at June gold and as you can see we had a nice move up this is where we started getting involved right here and it's moved up dramatically 1120 to where we are right now 12295 that's $7,500 for those of you accounting uh one contract of gold but what I like about this we talked about this before the sort of scenario where it was building this sort of triangle to go higher this wedge what this called wedge it's broken out right here and it looks like it wants to go higher so that I think again this is a situation where we're just pacing ourselves and eventually we see this Market go high this is not really super overboard you can see we're just at the 70 and we actually go as high as around about the 8590 level this is back in the February period right around here so again still some room on the upside in this market we still think this Market's going to go higher for the rest of the year okay this is the Dow and as you can see we've had a nice move up uh a couple of things you want to we sort of looking back in retrospect here's the double bottom we talked about double bottoms and pivot Points before there's a double bottom right here is the pivot point so you measure from this point here 154 to 164 gives you 174 which is right around here which is pretty much where we got and we just got a little bit further but the thing we look at here is the Ence in terms of this going down like here and the price is going up not a good sign also you're below the parabolic you see this little dotted line right here you're below that not a good sign either so I think that may could be the month the old adage training anes sell in May and go away could well apply to this particular year so let's move on now the nasdaq's a little bit different picture you see here we have a weekly trade triangle indicating you should be out of this Market totally out of the market we're below the 50 line not a good sign this is a market that seems to be rolling over and if we scope it out just a little bit further you can see it's had a history of moving higher than then swinging low and if you just look at these what we call Cycles we're sort of due for a cycle high so this is sort of how it goes like this and I think we're going to have another move down uh particularly with the weekly trade triangle indicating exit this position so again the negatives I see here is the weekly the RSI and the parabolic all of which are negative right now on the NASDAQ this is just the NASDAQ it's not the Dow it's not the S&P 500 so it's the NASDAQ this is a three-month chart of the S&P 500 as you can see it's still a positive we have a 65 which is more of a trading range as opposed to a strong upward Trend we are below the parabolic and look at how we just bounced off the 50 Line This is a key thing to look at if we go and close below the 50 line that's a strong indication that this Market is in my opinion rolling over to the downside so this is what we would see in the it's rolling over like this and but the 50 Line This is what I definitely want to watch and I also want to watch the weekly trade triangle if you go below the weekly trade triangle uh I think that would not be a good sign that would be around about 250 level on the S&P 500 I'd watch that very very carefully so again it looks to me that we are seeing more of a sort of cyclic period and as I said earlier it's May and I think you you want to be careful I I just I don't know what it is there's something in the air that just tells me that this Market's not going to go higher but again we have to wait for our signals and be disciplined before we get super negative on any markets hey I'm Adam huon thanks for watching today let's have a great May and I'm hoping that we have some great opportunities and gold and crude oil and of course the equity markets and if you look at some of the major names in equities like Amazon Google it's a mixed picture it's amazing Google actually is down the trend is down on Google which is hard to believe but that's the fact and and apple we mixed in a training range so you've got to be a little bit selective in what you're looking at and we'll do our very very best to bring you stocks that are trending higher like the gold miners and gold itself and some other ones as well so I'm Adam H thanks for watching have a great trading day everyone I'll be back tomorrow
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