원문 보기
I've never seen so much bearishness uh there's never been a time when what you know 60 of economists forecast a recession and when everyone when everyone's on one side I get very wary I think there might be some really surprises next year let me let me tell you 2022 was marked by a very good job growth and and very poor GDP growth and very poor productivity growth um firms were hoarding workers because you know they they were they couldn't get them I think we may see the opposite next year I think we might see actually the job market loosen up dramatically even job losses but that GDP grows much faster than most people think and we have a chance if the FED pivots to really avoid a recession and have a good year for profits because the productivity comes back Scott that puts downward pressure on prices it puts upward pressure on margins and all you know everyone who says oh my goodness these 2023 estimates are way too high might be surprised that many of them might turn out to be what profits are going to be well I listened to everything you just said and it all makes reasonable sense I'm sure to some who are trying to be as bullish as you obviously are your yourself but the four words that we need to discuss further If the Fed pivots those are the four words you used within what you just said because most people don't think Professor they're going to and that seems to be the whole ball game that the people who think that stocks are going to do better than many others keep talking about the FED pivoting where the FED seems to be explicit in not only are they not done in the hiking but they're going to keep rates up before they do anything for longer than people think how do you respond to that I respond to that Scott because I was with you a year ago a little more than a year ago now the September 2021 meeting where they said oh we're not raising rates in 2022 they were very very firm on that you know inflation was transient and it would be a mistake to raise rates you know every why should everyone believe the fact um when in fact the FED had not done anything that they told us that they were doing going to do over the last 18 months now I think when this data comes in I mean we take a look I mean we talk so much about what's going on in prices I think the FED is finally getting it at its housing indicator is way lagged and that house prices are actually going down and once you put in actual house prices in those inflation numbers as as I said uh two months ago really inflation disappears I think that's going to get through to the FED I think more people are going to be talking about it and by let me let me say there's 200 000 expected gain in January I mean I'm not a prognosticator if you get a job loss or jump an unemployment rate to 6869 I mean 3839 you're going to get a different tone from the fat they're going to get calls and saying you know what the last Market that you're worried about which is the labor market is finally loosening up and that is the last reason that they have to stay as tight as they are and I think that the message is going to get through let's just be real here I mean you don't trust the fed you don't believe the fed you don't trust the FED because of the mistakes that they made in the past you think they're incapable of following through on what they say now I am very disappointed in the FED I I you know I said on your show and throughout that they started tightening way way too late I I think they're loosening too late I didn't even think the last increase was you know called for given the trends that I see but it finally got through to them that they had to fight inflation and I think it's finally didn't get through to them and it's a happier message that they can accept that most of their battle is going to be behind us it the pressure is going to be when we see the job market loosen up um I I wish it didn't have to wait that long because I think honestly if they stay you know if the FED funds rate goes towards five percent by the middle of this year you know I have to be less bullish um but because I think don't you think it's going to go
댓글 0