저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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결론: 전 세계 자산 시장에 큰 하락이 임박했으니 모든 것을 팔고 피신하라는 경고이며, 특히 러시아 자산과 농산물은 저평가로 매수 기회로 본다. 러시아: 미국 달러 강세와 제재 등으로 루블이 크게 하락했으며, 3월에 러시아 주식을 샀고 6월에도 낙관적이었으나 지금은 저가 매수를 고민 중이라고 말함. 루블 하락은 달러 강세 탓이라고 설명. 농업: 러시아 농지는 매우 저렴하고 넓으며 비옥해 장기적으로 유망하다고 강조. 쌀과 설탕 같은 농산물 가격도 여전히 매우 싸다고 봄. 중국: 성장 둔화는 부동산 거품과 과열을 식히므로 장기적으로 좋다고 봄. 알리바바 IPO 때 매수하지 않았으며, 최근 IPO 열기는 기술주 고점 신호일 수 있다고 봄. 워도프 아스토리아 등 중국의 명품 자산 매입은 허영 투자 신호일 수 있다고 봄. 미국 시장: 주식 시장 폭(상승 종목 수)이 나빠졌고 대부분의 미국 주식이 하락했으며 2014년은 채권과 달러 외에는 투자하기 어려운 해였다고 평가. 곧 약세장이 오고 다음 약세장은 이전보다 훨씬 나쁠 것이라고 경고. 중앙은행과 통화: 시장이 하락하면 연준이 다시 양적완화(QE4)나 추가 통화 발행으로 대응할 것이며, 이로 인해 자산 버블이 생길 수 있다고 봄. 막대한 부채와 통화 발행의 대가를 결국 치르게 될 것이라고 경고. 원자재: 유가 급락은 세계 경제 약세와 중동 산유국의 패닉 매도 신호라고 해석. 유럽과 중국 경제 둔화를 지적. 리스크: 대부분 자산은 피하고 러시아·중국·일본 등 일부 시장에 선별 투자하라는 조언. 일본은 최고점 대비 65% 수준이라고 언급.
다듬은 글
hello and welcome to the truth channel in today's video we will be showing a clip of Jim Rogers who tells you to sell everything you own and run for your life tell us what you think in the comments your opinion is important and others want you to speak for them shooting ourselves in the foot we're shooting ourselves in the arm when we keep doing these things and so the rest of the world says well what are we going to do now and so they drive themselves together we're driving the Russians to the Chinese and Vice first we're driving the Iranians into the arms of the Russians and the Chinese all these people say well what are we gonna do we don't have any choice so they're trying to find and they are finding ways to get around the US dollar the US banking system and the US it's not good for us this is not good no no no I'm glad that you bring that up because it leaves very well to my next question now last time that you were here and you spoke with us not here but we spoke was back in June and at that time you were very bullish on Russia and arguably you know Russian assets that they cheap end with with the rubles decline so do you see this as an opportunity that's a very good question I should watch our ttv to find out how do I know there you go no you're the Russians are the Russian oriented people I did by Russian chairs back in March I was optimistic in June I have been optimistic they've gone back down and as we speak i'm sitting here thinking about whether i should step in and start buying you not down as low as they were when they when the Crimean situation happen they may be about to break down but I'm sitting if I weren't sitting here with you Aaron I'd be trying to figure out what to do about Russian chairs and Russian currency interesting now I by the way just one reason that the ruble is down all currencies are down the US dollars been going up like a rocket for a variety of reasons and therefore all currencies are down not just the room this is very true now I know that you're very bullish on agriculture and that I should definitely leave my job here as a journalist and go go get on the tractor which we want to joke about you know how do you feel that Russian agriculture well I'm Wally bullish you know I would love Russian farms are very very cheap that you can buy a farm you can buy attractive very cheap did you ever learn to drive a tractor you just take pics on chocolates it's on my are you just taking photographs so stick it right you gotta learn it and dry the thing you wanna good job but you could start covering the farm right you know go out to the farm sit on your tractor and talk to farmers and give report Russian agriculture has a great future its vast lands a fertile land and they haven't been ruined like at many other places of in Roy no I'm optimistic about Russian agriculture now Jim can you talk to me about China we know that China's growth is slowing so um is this a good thing or a bad thing right now it's good for the China's slowing down they've had a property bubble they've had too much inflation they've had too much overheating so it's always good when you can slow something like that down now people who are suffering don't think it's good but in the big picture it's good for all of us on the subject of China what do you think about Ali Baba what's your take on that well she bought it on the opening you made a lot I mean on the offering you made a lot of money otherwise you lost a lot of money so I did not buy it I'm not you know important enough to get shares on the offering so I didn't buy it uh it may be a sign of the top of the technology market looks like it hasn't been this technology market in the u.s.
anyway it's been suffering since I'm glad that you bring it up because we actually talked about that a lot and I agree with you on that there were at the top or it was very very close to it gosh I must be right there you must be right you know you with your tears thank you for sharing your knowledge with us but you know we're too let's talk about trophy assets the Chinese they're buying up a lot of trophy assets and it just came out last week they bought the Waldorf Astoria and you know it kind of reminds me of Japan when they went out and they bought Pebble Beach and these other trophy assets that was back in the 90s that job that Japan did that with the golf course but could these vanity buys the contrary two indicators early very good well could be and that's a good good insight on your part i had the same thought when i saw they mean staggering staggering what they paid for the waldorf astoria yourself 9 I mean it's unbelievably I'll never make any money out of it somebody if something went to his head it was a guy who did it and it may be the downfall of that kid and that the insurance company I I cannot see how anybody can rationalize but he did now speaking of bad indicators on this subject you know the market breadth it swinging and we know that but you know people like Albert Edwards I want to read you this quote they said in it he said in a tongue-in-cheek type way sell everything and run for your lives I love that sounds like something you might say may well be right it looks like he is right way the breath has been terrible most stocks are down most US stocks are down in 2014 they're not up or whatever the averages are doing it has not been a good year for most investors in nearly any asset unless you happen to own bonds or the US dollar so would you say not only is the bear market coming the bear market is it's obviously not upon us but in the next errand I'm not smart enough to know things like that tell me watch your part watch your show watch your show I know the bear market will come right you know that people in Washington and New York will tell you they'll never be another bear market again when you hear that you run for the hills you run for your life you know you call your mother's fast as you can so what do I do uh no you get out as fast as you can because they're gonna it's gonna be a bear market the next bear market Aaron's gonna be much worse than the last one because the dead has gone through the roof dead worldwide including the u.s.
is skyrocket and we're all gonna have to pay a terrible price for all this money printing and all this debt yes now like you mentioned you know stocks they've dropped fifteen to twenty percent and you know this the Fed would be back to Q in a heartbeat if this were the case you know if they drop drop 22 fifteen percent fifteen to twenty percent but um what about the real economy here that's what I kind of want to focus on and ask you about um sense of weakness outside the US could could come back here which we know so are you concerned at all about that first of all what is going to happen is the market will go down at which point everybody's gonna call the Federal Reserve and there gonna panic they're just bureaucrats and and academics I don't know anything they'll panic they'll say okay we're sorry we're sorry they'll you start qe4 or they'll print more money i see don't world will print even more money and he'll try to save the market the market will have a big rally and that might even turn into a bubble at that point the real economy the real economy listen to people who are getting the money aaron are having a wonderful time right and their friends are getting all this money is being printed but the rest of the country and the rest of the world is not having such a good time these days absolutely not and you know Jim with commodity prices fine it's kind of the sign of global economic weakness so what do you think about oils recent fall what would that say to you well it says to me what it says to you but you know for some reason there's not as much demand something is weak somewhere it also says that a lot of people probably in the Middle East are dumping oil now as fast as they can because they know they may not especially those guys whatever they call Isis you know they're probably dumping all they can because if they get cut off then they don't have any money anymore so there's a bit of panic selling it seems to me going on and and the man is not as hot Europe is slow China slowed everybody's slow yeah except maybe than some parts of the US that's interesting so where do you see the greatest opportunity in the commodity space right now well agriculture it's still farm prices rice buy yourself some rice buy yourself some sugar I got some sugar out of your uh your brain you preach I love I got myself some of your show it's free for goodness sakes I'm not stealing from you I might steal from you before it's over but no right now just put some in my pocket know that some things are still very very cheap worldwide but most things most things should probably be avoided if I were buying shares out by in Russia or China or Japan not in the u.s.
interested Japan as well but Japan is now sixty percent sixty-five percent from its all time high I know your parents told you to buy low and sell high if you call your mother she didn't teach you that mom I need some more or less
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