저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
요약 보기
예산안 발표 후 시장 하락 원인을 논하며, 선물옵션 STT 인상 등 세제 영향과 외국인 매도 지속을 언급. 단기적으로 외국인 매도가 바로 멈추지 않을 것으로 봄. 명목 GDP 성장률이 두 자릿수로 올라야 외국인 매도가 멈추고 대량 매수가 가능하다고 주장. 2026년 시장은 최고점·최저점 사이 박스권에서 움직이며 종목 선별 장세가 될 것으로 전망. 인프라·관광 관련 종목 선별 매수를 제안.
다듬은 글
Vijay Kedia Sahab, a well-known market veteran and a very good investor, is participating in the Thinking program. Welcome Kedia sir. Thanks for your time. Sir, how will you tell me how you liked the budget ? Meaning, even if I sing something in my own style or sing in words, the sound is not coming out, sir.
[laughs] I mean, right now I want to sing two lines of a sad song, sir, so that when the pain of the throat and the pain of the heart come together, it will be a different kind of fun. So the desires of the heart were washed away in tears and we remained alone even after being loyal. So right now it is coming like this sir.
So, for our market, nothing special has come out yet, which is understandable, and so, after all, see, whatever comes and goes, they say, sir, it will happen, whatever Sita Ram Rati will happen, why did you increase the argument, so this thing will end today, now from tomorrow we will start our life from where we were before, and then a new chapter will begin, sir, sir, by the way, as you said, maybe this is their last, maybe their last, this torture, every torture, thinking this, we endured it, yes, what a thing, what a thing , thinking this, we endured it, every torture, the tears of our heart just flowed here and there, sir , absolutely, absolutely, or what do you feel, sir, now what do you mean, if the STT had not been increased on future options, would the budget have been good, no, see, this should not be counted only on the basis of STT, they have increased the STT, because right now the CB also says the same thing again and again, and our people also know that here the future options What is the condition?
Everyone here has to be tied up. So this is a different one. This was temporary. It fell to 2100, 2200 points or 2400 points at one time. Then he recovered. All this will be shaken out again by closing today. That is not the question, sir. What do I think personally, you also know that I am not an economist.
But there should be an animal spirit, sir, we are talking about our economy which has a budget of 4.5 trillion dollars. So even now, the body language that seems to be there is such that we are still following the old pattern, when the economy was of one and a half to two trillion dollars, we are following the same pattern, so that might be a little missing, that will be known tomorrow when the complete details come, then it will be known that they have included many very good things in the budget, like they have promoted tourism a lot, they have also promoted medical tourism, tourism infrastructure, so the market will become selective, understand this market which used to function earlier, if you remove the budget that the budget came and did not come, then what was it before, the market was selective sir, if you look at the last 6-8 months, the market was absolutely selective.
Many shares, most of the shares, mid cap, small cap, all were down by 50-60%. Some of the stocks indexed were rising a bit. Some were maintained. So I think the same atmosphere will remain here. There is no such thing as a problem with it. We had expected that this person will come, that person will come.
If you are there, this will happen. If you were there, it would have been like that. So that was a different matter, sir. Otherwise it is fine. Came and went. It is true that apart from this there are many other things too, Sir, you should tell me that the focus that the Finance Minister has kept on fiscal consolidation, generally FIs like all these things very much, how much is the deficit, how is the day to GDP ratio etc.
but it seems that after seeing and hearing all this they will stop selling, I personally do not think that their selling will stop from tomorrow itself, the market is going to open tomorrow. From tomorrow onwards, someone will stop selling something because of this budget. I personally don't think there's anything in this budget that will stop them from selling.
I don't think so. We will stop selling. Okay then Sir, now after the budget, please give some direction to the market. feel what? Then the meaning will remain loose. Expecting any growth would be a bit hasty and excessive. See what I think? First of all, let me answer the question that whatever stagnation they will feel, it will feel when we talk about 7% economy, talk about growth rate, our GDP 7%, 7%, till it does not reach double digits, I feel that their or any other development is not the only reason, only then something can happen that leave aside their stagnation, a lot of money will come from them, if we start saying that our nominal GDP growth rate is within 10% double digits, then I feel that their stagnation will stop, their selling will stop and there can also be buying in large quantities.
And as far as the future is concerned, Sir, I feel that this market in 2026, right now, I feel that the all-time high which was made two-three months ago, I feel that is a boundary and it is not going to be crossed so soon and along with that, the all-time low which was made just six months ago or the low which was made after the market reached the high, I feel that will also not be broken, so I feel that this market will move within a range, the market will move within the 4-5000 index or whatever that range is and the market will become selective.
It will be even more selective in the future. Those shares which have potential, have growth inside, have good balance sheet , those shares will grow and those shares which do not have strength, will not grow or will fall or will remain maintained. Meaning it is. So these are some of the issues. Now tell me sir, what do you like in this market ?
If you feel that nothing is coming then you can also use NOTA. No, sir, what is it that right now I feel that as I told you, I feel that this bottom bottom of the index Windex, which was supposed to be there, has been done. Mid cap small cap is also down 30 40 50 60 70% from the top. Hey, will you kill the child, sir?
The market has fallen so much after they came in, it is not that any company or any shell company has any merit in them. Valuations became similar in many companies. A range that is in majority falls within a reasonable range. So I feel that the market will be selective and I always say that like bull market sunshine, there are rays of sunshine somewhere or the other.
Somewhere or the other there is sunlight above the earth. So, you will get an opportunity here and I think this is the time to do cherry picking or a bottom up approach which we call good stocks in the market, like I like infrastructure very much. Without infrastructure development, we cannot become a $10 trillion economy.
And the government is also focused on that. I am always worried about employment because the biggest worrying situation in India is unemployment. That too gets improved through infrastructure. Tourism improves it. The government has tried to focus on it. He took notice of that thing. So I feel that there should be an environment of buying selectively in the market.
That's absolutely right. The mood for selective shopping will still remain. Thank you very much Vijay Sir. You gave me your time and I want to tell you one more thing about the market. Actually, I have met you many times. Did many interviews. But still I have realized one thing, sir, I want to tell you that.
Very few people, very few, I ca n't even think of anyone else. If there is one or two, it will be fine. While giving opinion on TV about anything related to the market, he says that I feel this way. Look, people are saying this in the market, that would be their opinion but they should not impose it on others.
Because when you speak your own opinion, you have to turn it on. Bhagat Saheb, see, this is a big thing that Kedia Saheb, I feel that now I am right or wrong and you also say many times that I can be wrong but I feel this. So he has his opinion which is different. Thank you sir. Many many thanks. Thank you.
댓글 0