저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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결론: 비트코인은 공격적 신념보다 실용적·절제된 '포트폴리오 헤지' 논리로 설명해야 주류 자산으로 확산될 수 있다. 비트코인 홍보 방식 주장: 극단적 신념(모든 문제의 해결책이라는 주장)은 수요를 제한하고, 단순하고 실용적인 설명이 대중·기관 채택에 효과적이라고 주장. 기관 채택 전략: 기관 자산배분에서는 리스크 모델(BARRA 등) 안에서 설명해야 수탁자가 받아들인다는 취지. 기업 재무 담당자는 해지·분산투자 수익을 원하며, 현금 보유 시 발생하는 커리어 리스크 때문에 새 자산 편입을 꺼린다고 진단. 스팩(SPAC) 관련: 스팩은 상장 과정을 빠르게 하고, 발기인이 후기 단계 기업에 대규모 자본을 투입해 미래 수익을 확보할 수 있는 구조로 설명. 중요한 것은 과거 실적이 아니라 미래 계획이라고 강조. 종목·자산별 가격 방향 예측: 본문에서 대상 자산(비트코인 등)에 대한 1~3개월 단기 가격 방향 발언은 확인되지 않음. 비트코인에 대한 장기적 긍정 견해와 헤지 자산으로서의 가치 언급만 있음. 리스크: 비트코인 수요 확대 전략이 실제로 기관 채택으로 이어질지는 불확실하며, 발언자 본인도 비트코인 투자 이유를 장기 관점에서 설명. 출연자 전망: 장기적으로 비트코인과 금융 인프라 대체 가능성에 긍정적이나, 구체적 목표가나 기간은 제시하지 않음.
다듬은 글
what i've i find interesting is the the trend towards applying an engineer's mindset to global problems because it used to be a political mindset but the actual answer generally is a pragmatic cold hard look at a problem and find a solution and it's it's nothing to do with politics and and that creates much better outcomes i mean again i mean the classic example of that is bitcoin right when you want to reinvent the whole monetary system from scratch that comes out my whole view with bitcoin was always that it's much better to be pragmatic and lay out a moderate case which is that it's a hedge in a portfolio against the sort of traditionalist financial infrastructure and so many people would get mad because they would anchor on this extremist view that it had to be everything it had to be the solution and fantasy and everything the problem with that view is that that's just not how you maximize demand right when you think about products that really get to scale there's a simplicity and what that simplicity gives is people a very simple decision to make do i want to use this or do i not want to use it and so if you want you know for example bitcoin to get the mass market scale the most powerful thing that you can do is describe it in simple pragmatic terms that don't require zealous belief um and so it's just a it's just an example to me that sort of reinforces this idea that extremism never wins kind of like centrism is sort of the the value maximizing function yeah because when i'm looking at that whole world i see all of the other platforms blockchains tokens and i'm just thinking okay well here's a big diverse deep rich universe and it's i can't just seeing it being about bitcoin yes bitcoins this great asset and it's a wonderful gift for us all and thank you very much we can all make some money but this whole space okay that's super interesting to me because it's it's it is anti-fragile it's over away and it offers a whole bunch of solutions to the problem of finance which is a total show it's true it just requires um sort of like a de-escalated like i find that a lot of people in bitcoin and it's so funny because like many of them got there well after i did um they're just so arrogant about it i don't know maybe i'm just dumber but like i just don't understand why people need to believe so much versus you know view it more pragmatically and unemotionally because i think they'll find more success in the more unemotional you know treatment of what it is so like another example is like the entire d5 movement i was i got laughed at because somebody asked me laura shin asked me what dfi was and i was like i have no idea but i own bitcoin and and i was just telling the truth which is like i just don't i don't have the time to learn about all this stuff you know at some point somebody will explain it to me and i'll know a little bit better but it's not to say that it's not important but it is to say that everything has a time and place and if we are going to focus our energies on making bitcoin mass market and scale we have to dial down this zealous rhetoric and dial up pragmatist rhetoric pragmatist rhetoric is what will get your mother and your grandmother to have bitcoin in their wallets that's right i mean i mean that i love michael saylor and his interview has been amazing and he's on real vision but he speaks in a term that no corporate treasurer understands they want to hear about hornet's nest or anything else they want to hear about diversification of portfolio returns and stuff like that so to your point look i i've started an insurance company that's doing a bunch of very very uh esoteric exotic um insurance policies um and you know one of the interesting things that i've learned with my co-founder my partner in this he's the ceo i'm just a chairman but is how many of these corporations view their balance sheets and you know how they're buying all kinds of esoteric insurance the instant thing rubble that pops to the top of my head is wow these guys should also own bitcoin as something like that if they're going to own cat bonds and they're going to own business interruption risk insurance and all kinds of hedges on pmi my gosh why don't they own some bitcoin well it's because the presentation of that idea is done in such in such a way where they're forced to make a leap too far and because if you if you decompose what the treasure or the cfo is how the lens in which they're making decisions it's just career risk right it's it's like it's that old adage it's just it's you're never going to get fired for buying ibm and so you're never going to get fired for just having the money sit in a corporate account zero with earning zero at jp morgan then you know pounding your fists on the table for bitcoin so what we need is again more pragmatism around what it is um i've i've always found the presentation of the idea as a deeply fundamentally uncorrelated hedge to the existing financial infrastructure to be kind of boring not that salacious but very pragmatic and effective yeah i mean um you know a lot of people want to get the institutions into the space and i keep explaining to people stop talking about libertarian philosophies you know all of this stuff everybody in the asset allocation space the boring pension funds use something called barra b a double r a it's not allocation model you need to go and talk to them how it fits into the barrel model and they'll go oh perfect i speak by trustees it's as simple as that it's so boring right i mean at the end of the day it's like this is the boring sort of like you know blocking and tackling that's required and i think it's fine you know for look i mean i have different personas we all have different personas you know there are parts of my persona that are very extreme in certain views on certain topics in certain markets but i've also learned that you know there's a time and place for that but then there's a time and place for just pragma pragmatic product building blocking and tackling and reputation and trust when you're trying to get something to scale another example that i've been at the forefront of is inspects if i was zealous about spax you wouldn't have seen the change in the capital markets that we've seen in two short years what attract you respect what attracts you to specs what is it apart from the fact that it's just easier to get something away and there's some interesting economics what what what's so great about it the spac is really important well i'll give you why it's important to me and then i'll give you why it's important to an entrepreneur selfishly for me it allows me to basically be a conduit and act as a principal while i take companies public meaning i can use my balance sheet to basically empower companies to fulfill a mission that i believe and underwrite in and then i can be a big part of of them as they grow and scale and so you know the only places to make money in the in the private technology markets are all the way up front at the series a you know the sequoias and the benchmarks and the and reasons of the world i used to do that at social capital we did a good job but it's very hard and the the returns are extremely long dated or you just wait for these companies to get baked and do it at the back end where instead of putting in tens of millions you put in hundreds of millions or billions if you're able to do it and you own the same amount as they end up owning anyways 10 12 15 20 and then you can basically help them grow and scale so that's selfishly you know why i was attracted to a spac but then now you get into the venn diagram part of why i like it and why it makes sense for an entrepreneur it's because you can talk about the future and the most important thing in underwriting returns as you and i know in disruptive technologies is all about future returns you know i don't care about 2019 and 2018. tell me about 2028 and 2029 what is your plan you
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