저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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AI 인프라 매도는 과도하며 실적 시즌 수치(Vertiv 등)는 수요가 견조함을 보여준다. 엔비디아 수요 문제는 규제 이슈일 뿐이며 가격이 매우 싸다. 관세·경기침체 우려가 완화되면 관련주가 반등할 수 있다. 다만 Dell·HPE 등 서버주는 관세 노출로 불확실하다는 입장.
다듬은 글
Over the past few months, the market has totally given up on AI infrastructure. Even before the tariff induce selloff, this group's been rolling over ever since a Chinese firm announced that they come up with a cheaper way to create generative AI models at the end of January. Then we got the trade war worries, the recession fears cause Wall Street to turn on many of the last year's biggest winners, including anything at all connected to AI.
Hey, but you know what? We've seen zero evidence of a slowdown in the AI infrastructure buildout. In fact, CNBC's own Spencer Kimble in this terrific piece that I don't think many people talked about. Noted that executives from both Amazon and Nvidia said at an industry event today that there have been no slowdown in AI data center demand.
None of the hyperscalers have said they plan to dial back on their massive capital expenditure plans with the possible exception of Microsoft. But you know what? Microsoft was building these data centers on behalf of its partner OpenAI. And now that they're going through a kind of a slow motion breakup, OpenAI is starting to cover more of these costs itself.
They recently raised $40 billion. They can afford it. So, I've been saying that I think that the Microsoft so-called slowdown isn't as relevant as people think. Now, Nvidia is certainly not having any problems selling its high-end chips aside from government restrictions on which countries they can sell it to.
That has been a bummer, but it's a regulatory issue, not a demand issue. In fact, now that earning season is well underway, we've heard from a bunch of companies connected to the AI data center theme. And you know what? They've been putting up pretty darn good numbers. It's almost like there was never anything wrong with the AI infrastructure story in the first place.
Exhibit A came from yesterday. One one of our guests on last night's show. It's called company called Verdive. It's a company that makes uh power and cooling equipment for the data center. Now, this stocking come down 54% from its January highs to where it was trading right before the quarter on Tuesday night.
Then vert reports excellent numbers with easy top easy easy top and bottom line beats and a 21% increase in orders just versus the previous quarter. The so-called link quarter management raised their fullear sales forecast too. So it's no wonder the stock popped nearly 9% yesterday, another 7.5% today.
Uh it's one of the reasons why I talk about this stuff at the beginning of the show. Yet fer still down 46% from its high. It trades at roughly 23 times this year's earnings estimates despite the fact the company's on track to grow earnings at a 25% clip. I mean to me that's just a steal. Okay. I mean to me, you know what?
Last night we also had G Vernovo on the show. This is General Electric's old power division. Big turbine maker for power plants. Management said that strong demand from data centers is driving medium-term orders for gas turbines while generating plenty of interest in the company's nuclear business. This nuclear business is for real, people.
So, look, if reports of the AI infrastructure team's death were wildly overstated, what kind of stocks can we justify owning now that they've come down big and people are not saying that there's that there's any stability in the group? First, there are the chips that are at the heart of these data centers.
You know, I'm going to start with Nvidia. Now, I have yes, I have become less enthusiastic about this, not because of Nvidia itself, but because of the political headwinds involved with Nvidia. We still got a sizable position in Nvidia for the Chapel Trust because I'm a believer in their technology.
Nvidia stocks down more than 30% from its January highs, but it still looks pretty cheap. It's 24 times this year's earnings estimates. Keep in mind, those estimates have come down substantially after the effective federal ban on selling their AI chips to China, even the older ones. And that took my breath away, just so you know.
Of course, some other semiconductor stocks can get back on track if the AI infrastructure spending never really went away. I like Broadcom, which we own for the Chapel Trust. very big position and Marll technologies because they make what are known as custom accelerators that provide additional computing power for these warehouses full of servers.
Broadcom and Marll stock are down 25 and 55% respectively from the recent highs and they're trading at very reasonable valuations now. Then there's ARM Holdings, another one I really like. It's a company that licenses its leading semiconductor architecture designs to chipmakers including Nvidia. Cadence Design Systems, a nice move in that today.
Synopsis, they both work. They make semiconductor design software. Oh yeah, and don't forget Core Weeb, which makes its own AI data centers, essentially allowing customers to rent its clusters of NVIDIA GPUs. This stock's basically back to where it was trading when it came public in late March. If the AI infrastructure theme remains alive and well, Core Weave, I think Core could be an absolute steal here.
What else goes in the data center? Well, how about servers and networking equipment? This is a little trickier. Okay, the leading makers of servers are Dell Technologies and Yul Packard Enterprise. Sadly, both these companies have major tariff exposure, which is why their stocks, frankly, have just been slaughtered, but now they suffer 10 and nine times this year's earnings estimates, respectively.
So, I'm wondering if the bad news has already been priced in. By the way, the sharp activist fund, Elliot Investor, Elliot Management, they just announced a 7% stake at HP Enterprise last week. Um, HP Enterprise, frankly, has not operated that well, but maybe Elliot shakes it up. Oh, by the way, I never bet against Michael Dell.
If you do, I need you to do something. Please send me an invitation to your funeral. As for networking equipment, I'm a fan of Arista Networks, which is some of the best tech, but it's been hit extra hard because I was a lot of business with Microsoft, which has started to wobble with its data center investment plans.
But as I told a caller who asked about Arista just last night, I think the stock has come down way too. I mean, this thing is down 44% from insurance. This is a fantastically run company. It looks interesting to me at these levels. You know what? I'm calling out Cisco systems too long the market leader network equipment though it's also made some big moves into software and and by the way and also cyber security lately Cisco has been holding out much better than many of these other names only only down about 15% from its midfebruary highs 15 but it will roar once people get the memo that AI infrastructure spending never went away it's very inexpensive versus its accelerating growth rate since it made a recent acquisition all right now how about the utilities with nuclear exposure that roared last year because of the data center fuel rise in demand electricity.
All right, here I'm talking about Constellation Energy, Vistra. You might have heard about Vistra during the stock craft earlier this afternoon. Now, these stocks have both fallen nearly 40% from their highs. These two stocks got overheated during the runup, but they're now selling for barely more than 20 times this year's earnings estimates.
They're selling for less than a lot of the traditional utility companies. I think that sounds like an opportunity to me. The strength inverters earnings also has me thinking about Carrier Global and Train Technologies. These are two leading climate control plays that have seen major growth in data centers because you need to keep these servers cool.
Now, these two are far from pure plays. They also got exposure to construction with real tariff exposure, too. But if Wall Street embraces AI, they can bounce. I cannot believe how low carriers fallen. I feel the same way about a number of classic metal bending industrials with big AI infrastructure exposure.
Think Cumins, boy, that stock's been just blistered. Makes big backup power generators. You can't have a data center go down. Tonight's guest, Dover. All right. They make these liquid cooling products among many others or eaten another stock just been crushed. These are two that the trust owns. They make electrical power management.
Hubble Hubble Parker Hannah and Pal industries all good all of them. Now again these are very much cyclical companies. So you can't just buy them if you think we're headed into a recession. Most have seen their stocks get slaughtered because they think people think we are going to recession. But if we get a reprieve on some of more tariff issue, these tariff issues and investors return to the AI trade, I just gave you everything is going to fly again.
Bottom line, when it comes to AI infrastructure, Wall Street's become very skeptical. Uh, and I don't think that's really changed. But looking at what we've seen so far this earning season, I'm feeling much more sanguin about the story, especially if we get some more trade war deescal deescalization deescalation from the White House and stocks stay as cheap as they are.
And man, are they ever cheap. Let's get to Sunny in Illinois. Sunny, hey Jim, I'm a club member and a loyal follower. Thanks for watching underdogs. Thank you. Yes, that's how I son. Booyah. Jim. Oh man. Familial Booyah. I miss those. We haven't had a lot of them lately. Thank you, Sunny. So, first of all, I think you need to give Regina, Jeff, and the rest of the crew a raise.
They're working really hard overtime in this economy. Let me get What do I have? What do I have? I got I have some money here. I know I had a couple of fives I think kicking around. Let me get back to you on that. All right. Got him. So, all right. So, here's my question. So, I have Apple and Nvidia.
Can you give me some thoughts on Taiwan semiconductor? Um, Taiwan semiconductor is so low. I I have to tell you, I look at Taiwan semi what do people think? Look, I have tremendous conviction that we it's very difficult to politically to say that we will protect Taiwan semi. I will say this that is one of the greatest manufacturers in the world and anybody who thinks that Taiwan semi should be this low this cheap just is just not not a believer in AI and I am a believer in AI.
There we go. And here let's take a take the All right. Based on what we've seen so far from the earning season, I'm feeling positive about the data center buildout theme. I think it's good. Look, yeah, these stocks have just come down way too much. Much more mana, including one of the buildouters, do fresh off this morning's release.
I think that stock's dirt cheap. Then, after getting some tough home sales numbers today, I'm mapping out what I think could be on the horizon for the housing market. And all .
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