Tesla Recall Not a Concern, Analyst Dan Ives Says

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결론: 테슬라 리콜은 우려할 수준이 아니며, 중국 수요와 베를린·오스틴 공장 증설로 주가 30% 상승 여력이 있다는 낙관론. 리콜 관련: 리콜은 바람직하지 않지만 규모 대비 크지 않고, 카메라·트렁크 문제는 기술적으로 간단히 고칠 수 있어 투자자들이 이를 잡음으로 본다는 주장. 테슬라 전망: 향후 12개월 주가 30% 상승 가능, 목표가 1400달러 유지(Outperform). 중국 수요가 월 5만 대 수준까지 갈 수 있다고 분석. 2022년 중국은 가장 큰 악재였으나 개선 전망. 공장 증설: 베를린·오스틴 공장이 2022년 가동되면 생산능력이 약 200만 대까지 확대될 수 있음. 슈퍼차저 네트워크와 확장성이 경쟁 우위. 유럽 전략: 중국 생산 차량을 독일로 수출하는 물류 구조는 비효율적이라 베를린 공장이 유럽 거점으로 중요하다는 판단. GM 전망: GM이 전기차 전환으로 향후 3~4년간 기존 생산의 10%를 전기차로 바꾸면 주가 100달러 가능성. 전기차 시장 전체(약 5조 달러 규모 투자)의 수혜 기업으로 GM, 폭스바겐 언급. 출연자 전망: 테슬라 및 GM에 대해 긍정적 장기·중기 관점 유지.

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01. uh this week you wrote that tesla shares could gain 30 in the next 12 months as robust demanded china and new factories in the us and germany spur growth we're going to get to that in just a second i want to start though with this recall uh investors are basically saying this isn't a concern do you agree yeah look recalls you don't want to see them but relative to the scale it's not that big of a concern and also relative to the actual cameras and rear trunk from a technology perspective it's a pretty easy fix and that's why investors are kind of shaking this off as more noise rather than something broader dan let's talk about for a second if we can just zoom out from tesla tesla's of course the poster child of the ev space but you also cover a few more names gm is one of them that's really the one that kind of caught my eye in when we're talking about electric vehicles and what's going on once upon a time dan gm used to be kind of this poster child the stock market indicator of whether the economy was doing well to what extent has gm kind of lost its groove and perhaps regaining it by entering the eb space well i think that's really our focus and remaining investors focus going forward is that this could be the transformation what mary's doing in the team in terms of evs if they convert 10 percent of their base in the next three to four years ultimately we're looking at what i believe the hundred dollar stock for gm far short falls over the last few years but you look at this green tidal wave five trillion that's going to be spent it's not just tesla that's going to benefit we think massive re-ratings and names like gm toward and vw on this easy that i viewers face with the biggest transfers of the auto industry since 1950s hey dan i want to get back to the note that you you wrote earlier this week you said that tesla shares could gain 30 the next 12 months as robust demand in china and new factories in the us and germany spur growth you you didn't change your price target we should note it still maintains outperform at 1400 per share uh i'm wondering though what specifically was it that that that caused you to write this note what did you see come from tesla that made you so bullish on the china story yes the demand coming out of china i mean all of our work shows we could be looking at what approaches 50 000 per month run rate you think about earlier this year china was the biggest headwind to the story i think that starts to be a talent going 2022 but also it's about berlin and austin build out capacity extends that could be potentially two million units from a capacity and you when you talk about ev it's all chasing tesla their biggest mood it's not just the brand it's the supercharger network and the scalability and that's something that just further increases when austin and berlin come online in 2022 dan that's exactly where i want to go next very quickly i want to talk to you about berlin about germany and how really that's becoming kind of a new place for tesla to expand their factories as well as a new place for some of that kind of chip making capacity talk to us a little bit about the european operation i mean europe right now is really on what i view as an inflection point in demand for eb as we're seeing massive ship of course coal star bw and others going after the market but with tesla they need to have that flag ship factory because of the logistics right now if you're in germany and you want a tesla that car is getting produced in china shipped to germany the logistics is a rubik's cube disaster for wind is important not just a margin perspective but to really expand their foothold in europe and that's no different what they're doing within the us and austin where that's really going to be a very important ingredient to the recipe for success