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Jamie Diamond, CEO of JP Morgan, the largest bank in the United States, warns that the best-case scenario for the country is a mild recession. Look at this phrase, which is the lapidary phrase. "I think a recession is probably a likely outcome," he commented on Fox Business. These estimated models from the Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDP now would show a decline in activity of 0.2%.
This means that the United States economy is already heading towards an environment of further economic slowdown. The question we need to ask ourselves is, what strategies might be most effective in this environment? What is the best strategy to combat uncertainty right now? And the result is sure to grab your attention.
Warning from Jie Diamond, the CEO of JP Morgan, which is the largest bank in the United States. He comments that the best-case scenario for the North American country is a mild recession. What does the CEO of this large financial institution say ? And what might be a strategy to overcome this along the way?
We have access to an exclusive document from Kent Hargis of Alliance Bernstein with a strategy that could be very important for the current context and to avoid portfolio losses in this environment. So let's analyze all of this and what Jamie Diamond has to say. Let's get to it. But before I go on, I want to remind you that if you like this type of content and want to support it, the best way to do so is to leave a like, which only takes a second, and to leave a comment about what you think of the analyses and especially whether you agree or disagree with Jamie Diamond.
And of course, subscribe to the channel and turn on notifications. Below you will see a reminder to watch all my videos every time I publish them. So let's get to it. Okay, let's get into the context of what these words from Jamie Diamond mean. As Wall Street Engine reported here , JP Morgan CEO Jamie Diamond told investors last week that the best-case scenario for the United States is a recession, a mild recession.
This happened on the very same day that Scott Besentados, the JP Morgan executive, calmed the waters regarding the trade policy of the United States and China. Well, behind the scenes at that meeting, and according to leaks to the US media, Diamond reportedly said afterwards that the most likely and mildest scenario is a recession with a lesser impact in the United States.
But a recession, and hopefully that's the scenario we're going to have. However, in his public appearances, such as in a recent interview he gave on Fox Business, he was more relaxed and still did talk about economic recession. These are the last words we have from Jamie Diamond regarding that context of economic slowdown, which is something he was asked about.
So, going to the translation of this article that highlights the most representative aspects, we will then discuss what might be an interesting strategy for this turbulent environment from the investor's point of view. You, as an investor, will surely be interested, and obviously what we're going to say isn't recommendations , but something purely educational, informative, and informative for the entire community that regularly watches me .
But I believe that these statements are of a very high degree of interest. Look at this phrase, which is the lapidary phrase. "I think a recession is probably a likely outcome," he commented on Fox Business. Recession fears have been increasing on Wall Street as Trump's tariffs increase uncertainty about the scope of the trade war.
In the latest development, China said it will apply a reciprocal tariff of over 145%, which is the latest update, and well, this has generated significant distortions in world trade. Furthermore, as breaking news, the ports, especially the Port of Los Angeles which is interconnected with Shanghai, are experiencing a very significant drop in activity .
It is estimated that it may be even higher than 30 or 40% compared to the data prior to April 2, which is Liberation Day, and when the Trump administration unleashed all the noise of the trade war. Therefore, it is a factor that is already causing a paralysis of activity in the United States. And this is obviously something that worries the CEO of JP Morgan.
And that's why what he's saying is that the markets aren't always right, but sometimes they are. I think they are right this time because they are assessing uncertainty at the macroeconomic level and uncertainty at the microeconomic level and at the level of the company itself. And then, how does it affect consumer confidence?
He adds, it's difficult to know. Jamie Diamond's recommendation in this environment is to take a deep breath, negotiate trade agreements as soon as possible, and announce them as soon as possible. That's the best the Trump administration can do, according to the CEO of JP Morgan, but I think things could get worse, he says, if we don't make any progress from this rather important point that Jamie Diamond is making for us in this extremely turbulent market environment .
It seems that the foundations for stability are not being laid, and that this volatility, which appears to be here to stay, could generate more storms in the economy. Moreover, the Atlanta Federal Reserve models are estimating a 2.2% drop in US quarterly GDP in this first quarter due to the large imports of Swiss and London gold that the country is undertaking.
But even taking away that component of gold imports—why are they importing gold, to support the US economy, to protect themselves against a potential currency war—what is hidden behind these massive gold imports? Well, that's another question we have to ask ourselves from our point of view as investors.
However, the most important focus is that, subtracting the very important imports of the gold metal, the GDP of the first quarter, according to these estimated models from the GDP now of the Federal Reserve of Atlanta, would show a decline in activity of 0.2%. This means that the United States economy is already heading towards an environment of further economic slowdown.
Then, clearly this can be reversed along the way, especially if we find trade agreements. But of course, the question we have to ask ourselves from an investor's, professional and rigorous point of view is what strategies might be most interesting in this environment. And that's why I've turned to and gained access to an exclusive document from Kent Hargy, an expert and manager at Alliance Burstein, which shows what the best strategy is to combat uncertainty at this time.
And the result is sure to grab your attention. Because? Because what needs to be avoided in this market environment, according to the expert and what you will see on screen right now, are environments of volatility. The article focuses directly on defense and discipline, how to remain calm in a truly turbulent market situation.
Well, that's the question we have to ask ourselves , isn't it? What is it that we have to discuss? Hargys asserts that the volatility of equity markets is testing even the most experienced investors and that applying defensive strategic principles can help steer portfolios away from the external uncertainty we are currently witnessing.
More clearly, it says that Trump's shifting tariff agenda has made it difficult to forecast profits and companies, and that the dominance of the "magnificent seven" on the stock market appears to be waning, and this is a positive outlook. As a result, the range of corporate profits has expanded dramatically amid fears of an economic slowdown or technical recession, while stock market returns may be about to widen and diverge regionally.
That's why we need to implement loss reduction strategies , as it says here; we need to implement strategies directly to reduce losses and not navigate through a minefield. Okay? What is the most striking thing? Because we're going to look at graphs. Look, when we look at the graphs, this is fundamental.
Hargis, who, we repeat, is the manager of Alliance Burstin, one of the most important American asset managers, and which has a very attractive and interesting range of funds . He says that investors have reduced their exposure to the stock market in recent weeks, according to official data we have had access to, and that, well, the stock markets have fallen in the current context by around 12-15% after Liberation Day, and that subsequently there is a window of uncertainty that still needs to close.
The key is what type of portfolio we can have within a context of a bear market and significant volatility. A portfolio, for example, of a 9070, as you can see here and within its studies, is much more profitable and avoids significant losses in current contexts compared to the MSC World. And this is about protecting ourselves, this is about weathering the storm and weathering the losses.
In fact, his studies, which he mentions here, show that when the BX, which is the Wall Street volatility index, reaches peak levels, like the one we saw after Liberation Day, during the most severe market crises since 2000, the returns of the SP500 and the MSC World were 34.4% and 37.4% respectively during the following 12 months.
If you implement a strategy focused on avoiding risks rather than indexing in contexts like the current ones, as you can see here, I've shown you, the difference is significant, you see. Therefore, the question they then ask themselves is, how can investors avoid succumbing to risk aversion? We believe the key, Hargis points out, is to build a portfolio whose objective is to create smoother return patterns through volatile markets.
The goal of all this is to reduce the dollar, uh, sorry, to reduce the pain of absolute losses when markets fall and at the same time capture most of the market's profits through a rebound, a recovery. When a portfolio loses less on the downside, he argues, it has less room to recover the losses. This is logical, of course , and their studies, their analysis, suggest that a strategy that tries to capture 90% of the market's profits, but only 70% of the losses, can even generate a return higher than that of the general market in the long term.
These are what they call low volatility, but broad-return strategies. And in this, in fact, Alliance Basting has a low volatility fund that applies this strategy. You can take a look at it if you wish , but here is the analysis that I believe adds considerable value within the current market climate .
Here you see the author Ken Hargis, who is the CEO of Core Equities at Alliance Burstein, and I believe he makes a fundamental analysis of the current context based on these words from Jamie Diamond. In conclusion, what we observe is a turbulent market. Several players and senior representatives of investment banks and Wall Street analysis firms are beginning to turn negative.
This shouldn't make us overreact either. We know that the long term is our friend and that portfolio diversification is essential. Also, avoid the greatest possible losses. There are different strategies. One is the one we have discussed here. You can also make regular contributions over time to dilute the price or average the price of the index you are investing in, the asset you are investing in, or the specific investment fund you are focusing on with that long-term approach.
But it is indeed important that most people are seeing more noise, that we need to be cautious, that it is a market environment that invites us to be a little more wary than we were before, but that it can be combated from the point of view of investment and the saver. We must always emphasize the positive and not sell based on sensational headlines.
We've had that strategy on this very channel, and we still do, of grabbing attention, but after a headline, you have to look at the content. Don't just focus on the surface; look at the content, and within that content, there are alternatives. Ladies and gentlemen, people who are watching, know that we must never lose patience.
So, with that said, I hope you enjoyed this analysis. If so, please leave a like and a comment letting me know what you thought. Did you find these types of strategies interesting? Do you agree or disagree with Jmy Diamond? Leave it down there too, and subscribe to the channel to make the family bigger. Hugs to everyone and see you in future videos. Yeah.
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