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결론: 조엘 그린블랫의 특수상황 투자법(스핀오프·합병·LEAPS·워런트)을 소개하는 교육 영상으로, 특정 자산의 가격 전망 발언은 없다. 영상은 그린블랫 헤지펀드가 연 50% 수익을 낸 사례로 시작해, 그 방법이 저가 매수·고가 매도라는 단순한 원리에 기반한다고 설명한다. 핵심 투자 대상은 스핀오프와 합병 같은 특수상황이다. 스핀오프는 기관이 소형주를 보유하기 어려워 매도 압력이 생기고, 그 결과 내재가치보다 낮게 거래될 수 있다고 주장한다. 분석 방법으로는 프로포마 재무제표, 할인된 미래현금흐름, 동종업계 비교, 내부자 지분 확인을 제시한다. 합병 역시 현금이 아닌 증권 대금 지급 시 기관 매도가 발생할 수 있어 특수상황이 된다고 설명한다. 레버리지가 큰 스핀오프는 부도 위험이 있지만 이익 레버리지로 큰 상승 여지가 있다고 본다. 이때 콜옵션이나 LEAPS(약 2년 만기 장기 콜옵션)를 활용해 하방 손실을 옵션 매수 금액으로 제한할 수 있다고 소개한다. 워런트도 유사한 구조로 더 긴 만기를 가진다고 설명한다. 분산투자에 대해서는 특수상황 투자는 약 8~10개 종목이면 체계적 위험 감소 효과가 대부분 나타나므로 그 이상은 필요 없다는 견해를 제시한다. 마지막으로 위험 관리가 우수한 투자자와 아마추어를 가르는 기준이라고 강조하며, 상승 여지가 하락 위험보다 훨씬 커야 투자할 가치가 있다고 말한다. 영상은 특정 종목이나 시장 방향에 대한 전망을 제시하지 않는다. 출연자는 분석 대상 발언자가 명확하지 않으며, 옵션은 복잡한 파생상품이라 잘못 쓰면 포트폴리오를 망칠 수 있다는 경고도 포함된다.
다듬은 글
joelle greenblatt's hedge fund returned an average of over 50 percent per year for over nine years the s p 500 returned about nine percent per year in that same period including reinvested dividends so how did greenblatt achieve such phenomenal returns before ultimately closing off his fun to new money of course he did what any of us could do he bought low and sold high okay he did a little bit more than that but seriously his methods are unbelievably simple for such high returns greenblatt's preferred investments come from what are called special situations corporate spin-offs are one type of situation a spin-off happens when the parent company wants to get rid of part of the business usually it's in the shareholders best interests spin-offs can happen when part of the business is unrelated to the parent business or when it's a lower quality business with less than favorable financials great spin-offs are meant to help shareholders so everyone wants in right not exactly when a large company spins off a part of the business all shareholders are given stock in the new company institutional investors usually can't hold investments with smaller market caps or even stocks in different industries the result is that the spinoff businesses stock price usually gets beaten down by institutional investors and other large investors selling their shares because they have to or because it's not a part of their original investment so most of the time you get a stock that's irrationally trading below its intrinsic value of course simply seeing a price drop doesn't mean it's a good investment joelle greenblatt looked at the pro forma financial statements of the spin-off and tried to see what its future might look like discounting the future cash flows of the spin-off at a reasonable discount rate he figured out what the intrinsic value of the spin-off was he also looked at other stocks in the industry to see how the market is currently pricing them to further analyze spin-offs he looked to see what insiders were doing and checked how much ownership they had in the company you can recreate these steps too spin-offs are rare but not unheard of there are spin-off situations happening all the time when you find a spin-off after figuring out your best valuation you may have just found yourself a gold mine just like spin-offs mergers are special situations that joelle greenblatt loves to explore unlike a spin-off instead of cutting out a piece of a company mergers combine two companies sometimes the buying company pays the shareholders of the other company in an all cash transaction to acquire them in other times the buying company uses cash and what are called merger securities merger securities can be anything from company stock to debt to other wacky combinations of these two some of which we'll discuss in the next section basically when the first company doesn't have enough cash it gets creative with its financing however just like spinoffs the other company's shareholders may not be huge fans with changes in their original investment again some institutions or large shareholders that own stock in the company being acquired either can't or don't want to hold stock or securities in another company so this could lead to irrational selling greenblatt pays extra attention to mergers with more than cash and pure stock being transacted some buying companies might also use sophisticated debt or equity securities to pay for the merger these securities usually have smaller markets and therefore less liquidity for large investors so then what happens you guessed it more irrational selling and one happy joel greenblatt so let me propose a situation to you you're thrilled ecstatic actually you found a spin-off and you did your due diligence and you think that it's trading way below intrinsic value good for you classic greenblatt move however you know it's cheap but you also realize it's heavily leveraged with so much debt you know there's a chance it could go bust but with debt comes the opportunity for extreme upside after all if a company makes five dollars and the debt is four dollars you get one dollar if it makes six dollars the next year only a twenty percent increase in sales your earnings just doubled one way to be a part of a situation like this and limit your downside is to use options specifically long-term equity anticipation securities or leaps for short leaps are when you buy a call option for close to two years in advance of expiration being a call option your downside is only limited to the amount you pay for the option but you'll get the full upside if the stock price goes up perhaps an example may help if a stock is trading at five dollars and a leap call option is trading at 150 you can buy the leap and if the stock moves up to say eight dollars per share within two years your leap will be worth three dollars more or triple its original value however if the stock goes bankrupt you're only down your original 150 instead of the five dollars you would be down if you had instead bought the stock of course this is just scratching the surface and i recommend much more research into options because they are complex derivatives that can certainly ruin an entire portfolio if not used correctly another type of security that's similar to a leap call option is what's called a warrant warrants give the holder the right to purchase a stock at a specific price just like a call option the holder gets the upside if the stock goes up but is limited to the downside of the price that they paid for the warrant even better than a call option warrants usually have a lot longer time period than two years so you could basically have a leap call option that lasts for five years or more this means five years for the stock to reach your estimation of its intrinsic value warrants are rare and are only issued by the company but you may come across them in your search for special situations greenblatt use leaps and warrants for all kinds of special situations which lowered each investment's risks compared to the potential rewards joelle greenblatt advises investors to use some of his strategies if they want to make significant returns through these special situations one strategy he uses is called diversification many of us are told that the more baskets we have for our eggs the better it's always better to have more exposure right not so according to joelle greenblatt see since special situations are so well special you really shouldn't have more than 8 or 10 in your portfolio it's very unlikely that more investments would be better than the first original eight or ten if you know the most about eight companies and think that they are the best you have found what's the point in adding some subpar players to your roster of all-stars greenblatt brings up research that shows that after about 10 stocks you have just about as much systematic risk as if you held 30 100 or even 500 stocks therefore as an active investor it isn't necessary to hold more than this amount in your portfolio unless you find over 10 equally attractive investments according to joelle greenblatt what distinguishes a great investor from an amateur is how they look at risk sure everyone wants upside but at what cost would you buy into something with a 10 percent upside but an equal chance that you would lose 100 of your money perhaps you would in vegas but hopefully never as an investment great investors limit their downside risk as much as they can and create the most upside from these situations it's extremely important to only invest in situations where your potential reward far exceeds the risk of getting it greenblatt achieved a 50 return per year through a combination of deep analysis risk avoidance and frankly pure luck he didn't win every time but he certainly positioned himself to win a whole lot more than he lost don't trust anyone over 30 and don't trust anyone 30 or under perhaps greenblatt's most useful advice don't trust me or him use this information however you'd like figure out what works for you and go catch yourself a fifty percent return i hope this helps please leave a like and subscribe if you want more what investor do you want to know more about leave a comment down below and i'll see you again next time you
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