저자: GeneBasler · 외국인
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결론: 강한 달러는 금·비트코인 등 귀금속·암호화폐 가격을 단기적으로 누르지만, 중장기적으로는 달러 구매력 하락이 이를 뒤집을 것이라는 전망. 발표자는 강한 달러의 의미(외국 상품 구매력 증가, 미국 수출품 가격 경쟁력 약화, 제조업 해외 이전과 일자리 감소)를 설명한 뒤, 9월 증시·금·비트코인 동반 하락의 원인을 강한 달러와 유동성 청산으로 봤다. 단기 가격 움직임은 일일 단위가 아니라 추세로 봐야 한다는 입장이다. 10월 1일 달러가 약해지자 금 선물이 상승한 사례를 들었다. 중장기적으로는 달러 공급 확대로 구매력이 완만하지만 꾸준히 떨어지며, 이는 서민과 중산층에 대한 세금과 같다고 주장했다. 현대통화이론(MMT)을 언급하며 통화 리셋은 전쟁 없이는 드물었다는 비관적 시각도 밝혔다. 달러 자산을 다른 자산으로 옮기는 것이 장기적으로 합리적이라고 조언했다. 짐 로저스가 달러를 계속 보유하는 이유를 궁금해하며, 그가 기다리는 지표가 무엇인지 시청자에게 질문했다. 로저스는 달러 패권 종식과 대체 통화 등장을 여러 해 예측해 왔지만 아직 매도하지 않았다고 짚었다. 일본은행의 무제한 양적완화와 미국의 대규모 부채 역시 장기적으로 좋지 않게 끝날 것이라고 경고했다. 발표자는 투자 조언이 아닌 오락 목적이며 전문가가 아니라고 밝혔다.
다듬은 글
i hope i get it right i own the us dollar i hope i have enough sense to get out of time what are the indicators that a guy like jim rogers is looking for so he can make the decision pull the trigger and move it out that's what i want to know so please tell me in the comments section why guys like jim rogers are still holding on to dollars is he planning to time it just right in 2020 september everything tanked at the same time the stock market went down gold prices went down bitcoin prices went down and the answer that most people posited was that the dollar is strong right now hi guys it's gene here the question is what does a strong dollar mean and in particular what does it mean in relation to the prices of precious metals and cryptocurrencies especially bitcoin this is for my kids my nieces and nephews my friends and family people closest to me that i care the most about not an expert on any of this subject matter this is for entertainment purposes only because everybody thought everything was going to the roof the gold was going to go to 2 000 and then the 5 000 silver was going to go to 50.
bitcoin is going to go to 20 000 and the answer was that the dollar is strong right now and because the dollar is strong it's driving down the prices of gold and silver so i wanted to understand how that works so i typed in what does strong dollar mean this is the balance this is a guy named ken little he says strong dollar means the us currency buys more of a foreign country's stuff and weak dollar means it buys less of a foreign country's stuff strong dollar is good for electronics consumers and international travelers but u.s goods and services cost more on the intern on the global marketplace which places them at a disadvantage it causes manufacturers to move their plants to foreign countries so that they can remain competitive and it means jobs lost in the united states so in short strong dollar can mean jobs lost in the united states weak dollar means that the goods and services that the u.s economy produces are more competitive on the global scale which is good for u.s jobs so weak dollar can save u.s jobs problem is currency conflicts lead to trade wars trade wars are counterproductive but trade wars happen why because politicians are more concerned with what plays well with the home crowd and less concerned about what things like trade wars can mean for the health of the overall economy nothing surprising about any of this that's a little background but what i'm really wanting to know is how it affects precious metals and cryptocurrency prices i typed in strong dollar gold price right here's yahoo gold should be trading higher on safe haven demand but it's kind of a repeat back like in the spring when the market sell-off comes market participants have been selling assets off across the board so that's why we don't see parallel or uh inverse action right let's click on this just for fun let's not get into gold and silver and prices and stuff let's talk about big picture basically this is a yahoo article that says stuff like uncertainty over more fiscal stimulus strong dollar lead to uncertainty and it makes people go to cash basically people liquidate not just stocks but also precious metals and cryptocurrencies because they get scared most everybody says it's a short term now on october 1st day before yesterday the dollar gets a little bit weaker and gold futures start to move up so you can't look at this in day to day terms weak dollar strong dollar gold prices i think you have to look at this in terms of trends and i think long term people start to realize that holding their dollars is not a good idea they flood the market with more dollars and the purchasing power of the dollars that normal folks like you and i are holding becomes diminished it's a tax on poor people tax on the middle class the tax on people that don't have as many dollars to absorb it and they don't have their assets spread out across real estate in international business and companies and different i guess for one of a better term investment instruments so yes it's a tax it's a terrible tax but it's politically expedient some people say it's modern monetary theory and they say it's fine because every few years you just reset the currency but uh it's it's basically a war economy because the only way to reset the currency is to have a war i don't know how many currency resets there have ever been without a war it means part of the equation strong dollar can cause people to be less interested in precious metals and cryptocurrencies fundamentally over the mid to long term i think you can expect it to purchasing power the dollar to diminish relatively steadily and over time getting your money out of the dollar and into something else is probably the right thing to do however however jim rogers he's taking his sweet time i just heard him say the other day i hope i get it right i own the us dollar i hope i have enough sense to get out of time he's been predicting the end of dollar dominance and he's been saying something's going to replace the us dollars is i'm still holding on to dollars i hope i get rid of him in time but i think he's looking for some other indicator than the mere pumping of dollars into the economy and i don't know what indicator he's looking for and i'd like to know where his head is at with that you know the united states is the largest debtor nation in the world by many factors and we keep adding staggering amounts of money to our debt this has always ended badly i mean it's not just the u.s the job the japanese oh my gosh those guys the head of the bank of japan goes to work every morning early cranks up the printing presses prints as fast as he can he wants to print unlimited that's his network unlimited amounts of money and buy stocks and bonds and etfs i mean this is going to end very very badly when it is so really folks when it comes to holding on to your dollars until the last minute i mean if the dollar is still strong one month week the next and there's a lot of volatility and the prices of precious metals and cryptocurrencies haven't gone parabolic as they say then what are the indicators that a guy like jim rogers is looking for and he's been saying for years that he's going to lose that status it's going to cease to be a safe haven but he's holding on to it till the last minute what are the what is he looking for so he can make the decision pull the trigger and move it out that's what i want to know so please tell me in the comments section why guys like jim rogers are still holding on to dollars the guy who's been saying the dollar is gonna crash what's he looking for is he planning to time it just right that's what i want to know from you guys in the comment section and what are your predictions for the dollar oh more people are here wow thanks
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