저자: BillAckman · 외국인
요약 보기
Ackman은 벤저민 그레이엄의 가치투자 원칙(가격과 가치 구분, 안전마진)을 강조하며, 투자는 장기 현금흐름을 예측 가능한 기업을 싸게 사는 것이라고 설명한다. 대표 보유 사례로 Universal Music Group을 들어 음원 스트리밍 기반 수익 구조와 콘텐츠 자산의 지속성을 근거로 든다. AI가 음악을 대체하기보다 아티스트의 도구가 될 것이라는 견해를 밝힌다. 단, 종목의 단기 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
in your lecture on the basics of finance and investing you uh mentioned a book intelligent investor by Benjamin Graham as being formative in your life what key lesson do you take away from that book that informs your own investing sure actually it was the first investment book I read and uh as such it was kind of the inspiration for my career and a lot of my life so important book you know bear in mind this is sort of after the Great Depression people lost confidence in investing markets World War II and then he writes this book it's for like the average man and basically he says that you have to understand the difference between price and value right price is what you pay value is what you get and he said the stock market is here to serve you right and it's a bit like the neighbor that comes by every day and makes you an offer for your house makes you a stupid offer you ignore it uh makes you a great offer you can take it and that's the stock market and the key is to figure out what something's worth and you have to kind of weigh it he talked about the difference between you said the stock market in the short term is a voting machine it represents speculative interests you know supply and demand of people uh in the short term but in the long term it's the stock market's a weighing machine you know much more accurate it's going to tell you what something's worth and so if you can Divine what something's worth then you can really take advantage of the market cuz it's really here to to help you and that's kind of the message of the book in that same way there's a kind of difference between speculation and investing yeah speculation is just a bit like buying trading uh crypto right you're strong words well uh short-term trading crypto maybe in the long run there's intrinsic value but uh the you know it's many investors you know in a bubble going into the you know the the crash uh were really just pure speculators they didn't know what things were worth they just knew they were going up right that's speculation um and investing uh is you know doing your homework uh digging down understanding a business understanding the competitive dynamics of an industry understanding what Management's going to do understanding what price you're going to pay you know the value of anything I would say uh other than love let's say uh is the present value of the cash you can take out of it over its life now some people think about love that way but it's not it's not the right way to think about love but it's um yeah so investing is about basically building a a model of what this business is going to produce over its lifetime so how do you get to that this idea of called value investing how do you get to the value of a thing even like philosophically value of anything really but we can just talk about the things that are on the stock market sure companies the value of a security the value is the present value the cash you can take out of it over its life so if think about a bond Bond your bond you know pays a 5% coupon interest rate you get that let's say every year or twice a year split and half and it's very predictable and if it's a US Government Bond you know you're going to get it so that's a pretty easy thing to value a stock is an interest in a business it's like owning a piece of a company and a business a profitable one is like a bond and that it generates these coupons or these earnings or cash flow you know every year the difference with uh a stock and a bond is that uh the bond it's a contract you know what you're going to get as long as they don't go bankrupt in default with a stock you have to make predictions about the business you know how many widgets they going to sell this year how many going to sell next year uh what are their costs going to be how much of the money that they generate do they need to reinvest in the business to keep the business going um and uh that's more complicated um but you know what we do is we try to find businesses where with a very high degree of confidence we know what those cash flows are going to be for a very long time time and there very few businesses that you can have a really high degree of certainty about and as a result you know many Investments are speculations cuz it's really very difficult to predict the future so we what we do for a living what I do for a living is find those rare companies that you can kind of predict what they're going to look like over a very long period of time so what are the factors that indicate that a company is something is going to be something that's going to make a lot of money it's going to have a lot of value and it's going to be reliable over a long per period of time and what is your process of figuring out whether a company is or isn't that so every consumer has a view on different brands and different companies and you know what we look for are sort of these non-d disruptable businesses a business where you can kind of close your eyes stock market shuts for a decade and you know that 10 years from now it's going to be a more valuable more profitable company so we own a business called Universal Music Group uh it's in the business of helping artists become Global artists uh recorded music business uh and it's in the business of you know owning rights uh to sort of the music publishing rights of songwriters and you know I think music is forever right music is a many thousand year old uh hum part of the human experience and I think it will be you know thousands of years from now and so that's a pretty good backdrop to invest uh in a company and the company basically owns a third of the global recorded music that's you know the most dominant sort of market share in the business they're the best at taking an artist who's 18 years old who's got a great voice and has started to get a presence on YouTube and uh Instagram and helping that artist become a superstar and that's a unique talent and and the result is the best artists in the world want to come work for them but they also have this incredible library of you know the Beatles the Rolling Stone it's uh YouTu Etc so and then if you think about um what music has become used to be about records and CDs and you know eight track tapes for those of who it was about a new format and that's how they drive sales and it's become a business which is like the podcast business about streaming and you can streaming is a lot more predictable than what than selling records right you can sort of say okay how many people have smartphones how many people going to have smartphones next year there's a kind of global penetration over time of smartphones you pay call at 10 11 bucks a month for a subscription or last for a family plan and you can kind of build a model of what the world looks like and predict you know the growth of the streaming business you predict what kind of market share Universal is going to have over time and you you can't get to a precise view of value you can get to an approximation and the key is to buy at a price that represents a big discount to that approximation and that gets back to Ben Graham Ben Graham was about what he called uh invented this concept of margin of safety right you want to buy a company at a price that if you're wrong about what you think it's worth and it turns out to be worth 30% less you paid a deep enough discount to your estimate that you're still okay it's about investing a big part of investing is not losing money if you can avoid losing money and then have a few great hits you can do very very well over time well music is interesting cuz uh yes music's been around for a very long time but the the way to make money from music has been evolving like you mentioned streaming there's a big transition initiated by I guess Napster that created a Spotify of how you make money on music W with with apple and with all of this and the question is how well are companies like umg able to adjust to such Transformations one I could ask you about the future which is uh Artificial Intelligence being able to generate music for example should they been a lot of amazing advancements with so do you have to also think about that like when you close your eyes all the things you think about are you imagining the possible ways that the the future is completely different from the the present and how well this company will be able to like surf the wave of of that sure and they've had to Surf a lot of waves and actually the music business peaked the last time in like the late '90s or 2000 time frame and then really Innovation Napster digitization of Music almost killed the industry and really LED an effort to save the industry and actually made an early deal with uh Spotify that enabled you know the uh the industry to really recover and so by virtue of their Market position and their credibility and their willingness to kind of adopt new technologies they've kept their position now they of course had this huge Advantage because I think the Beatles are forever I think you is forever I think Rolling Stones are forever um so they had a a nice base of of assets that were important and I think will forever be and forever is a long time but you know the uh again there's enormous there are all kinds of risks in every business this is one that I think has a very high degree of persistence and I can't Envision a world where Beyond streaming in a sense now you may have a neuralink chip in your head that instead of a phone but the the music's going to come in a digitized you know kind of format you're going to want to have an infinite library that you can walk around in your pocket or in your brain it's not going to matter that much of the form factor you know the device changes um it's not really that important whether it's Spotify or apple or Amazon uh that are the so-called uh dsps or the or the providers uh I think the value is really going to uh reside in the in the content uh owners and that's really the artists uh and the label and I actually think AI is not going to be the primary creator of music I think we're going to actually face the reality that it's not that music has been around for a th thousands of years but musicians and music has been around like we actually care to know who's the musician that created it just like we want to know that Who's the artist human artist that created a piece of art I totally agree and I think if you think about it there's other lots of other Technologies uh and computers that have been used to generate music over time but no one wants to No One falls in love with a computer generated track right um and you know Taylor Swift you know you know incredible music but it's also about the artist and her story and her physical presence and you know the uh the live experience I don't think you're going to sit there uh and someone's going to put computer up on stage and and then and it's going to play and people are going to get excited around it so I think AI is really going to be a tool to make artists better artist um and and uh you know the I think uh like a synthesizer right uh really created the opportunity for you know one man to have an orchestra um maybe a bit of a threat to uh a percussionist um but maybe not maybe it drove even more demand for for for the live experience unless that computer has humanlike sensient which I believe is a real possibility but then it's really from a business perspective no different than a human if it has an identity that's basically Fame and influence and there would be a robot Taylor Swift and it doesn't a copyrightable asset I would think right yeah and then there'll be not sure that's a world I'm excited that's a different discussion um the world is not going to ask your permission to become what it is becoming so uh but you can still make money on it uh presumably there' be a capital system and there' be some laws under which AI which I believe AI systems will have rights that are akin to Human Rights and we're going to have to contend with what that means well there sort of name and likeness rights yes right that have to be protected now can a name be attributed to a a Tesla robot I don't know I think so I think it's quite obvious okay so those are more more potential artists for us to represent at universe exactly exactly all right that's sort of one example another example could be just you know the restaurant industry right if you can you look at businesses like a McDonald's right it's a whatever the company's like a 1950 vintage business and here we are it's you know 75 years later and uh you can kind of predict what it's going to look like over time and the menu is going to adjust over time to Consumer tastes and I think the hamburger and fries is probably Forever The Beetles The Rolling Stones the hamburger and fries are forever
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