저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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2022년 경기침체 우려와 스태그플레이션 가능성을 다룬 영상. 결론: 경기침체는 올 수 있으나 장기 성장 자체는 유지되며, 성장주는 조정받고 수익성 있는 기업은 상대적으로 버틸 것이라는 진단. 거시 배경: 연준의 금리 인상, 우크라이나 전쟁에 따른 공급망 차질, 대규모 통화 공급으로 인플레이션이 40년 만의 최고 수준. 과거 1970년대 같은 스태그플레이션 국면은 보통 수개월 내 해소된다고 설명. 침체 지표: 장단기 금리차(2-10년 스프레드)보다 단기 선도금리가 더 나은 선행지표라는 연준 자료를 인용, 현재 스프레드는 평탄화가 아니라 벌어지는 중이라고 언급. 장단기 역전은 1955년 이후 미국 모든 침체에 선행했다고 경고. 원자재·물가: 원유가격이 전년 대비 약 86% 상승(배럴당 약 62.7달러→117달러), 에너지가 30~40년간 50% 이상 뛸 때마다 침체가 뒤따랐다고 지적. 밀 가격은 글로벌 금융위기 직전 수준이라고 언급. 시장 전망: 적자 성장주는 최근 6개월간 시총 80~90% 하락했으나 S&P500 등 지수는 신고가 부근이라 괴리가 있다고 지적. 수익성 있는 사업자는 주가 급등은 없겠지만 완만한 조정에 그칠 것이라 봄. 주택 거래 감소와 소비자심리 악화도 우려 요인으로 언급. 리스크: 연준의 추가 금리 인상이 경기를 꺾을 수 있음. 지정학 리스크(러시아-우크라이나)는 주식시장에 영향이 제한적일 수 있으나 불확실성은 큼. 투자 조언: 단기 변동성에 흔들리지 말고 관점을 유지하라는 메시지. 영상 말미에는 암호화폐 투자 여정에 도움이 될 것이라고 언급.
다듬은 글
the truth about what is coming, chamath palihapitiya's latest interview on a coming recession. What is going to happen to the economy next? Are we going towards a path to recession in 2022? The federal bank is also increasing its interest rates, housing prices are increasing, with the highest inflation ever registered in the past 40 years. What should I do next? Everyone is panicking with these questions these days. Let me know in the comments whether these questions arise in your mind this year.
At the beginning of the year, the news was filled with the fear of rising inflation, and on top of that stagflation was bursting out. Then a war started in Ukraine, and of course inflation rates kept rising. Disrupting the supply chains, taking on debt, and printing money at scale for transfer payments, which create new demand, make rising inflation the logical end point. The big question is what happens next to the economy.
Welcome to Crypto Trends. In today's video you will learn about Chamath Palihapitiya's latest interview on a coming recession, so make sure to watch until the end and don't forget to like and share. Many experts are guessing what is about to come in the near future. In today's video we will discuss what Chamath said about the coming recession in his recent podcast, All In. But before moving on, let's learn a little about Chamath Palihapitiya.
Chamath Palihapitiya is a Sri Lankan-born Canadian-American venture capitalist and engineer, a Silicon Valley venture capital investor who has become a tech celebrity. He is a proponent of SPACs, a kind of investment vehicle that lets private companies go public with less scrutiny from the SEC. Palihapitiya is a sponsor and investor in half a dozen SPAC companies, which have merged with companies including Virgin Galactic and Clover Health.
Palihapitiya was an early senior executive at Facebook, working at the company from 2007 to 2011. After leaving Facebook, he started his fund, the Social+Capital Partnership, through which he invested in several companies including Yammer and Slack. The Social+Capital Partnership changed its name to Social Capital in 2015. He is also a co-host of a technology podcast.
Chamath wrote on Twitter: "History repeats itself. In 2018 the Fed was concerned about inflation. They were wrong, and within a quarter or so the risk shifted to recession." History shows that phases of stagflation and recession were not of long duration, yet whenever those terms hit the news, fear spreads. High unemployment and rising prices are the breeding ground for social instability, which can sometimes evolve into a major war. Economists have ruled such scenarios out in their models, and one of the most prominent descriptions is the Phillips curve. This model mostly says either unemployment is high or the inflation rate is high. But the 1970s show that this isn't always the case, and stagflation exists in reality. Due to the oil price shock, inflation rates rose along with unemployment.
Economists fear the stagflation monster since not much can be done against it. The good news is that it usually goes away after a couple of months. Due to pandemic disruptions of supply chains, lockdown policies, and money printing, some economists argue that societies in Europe and the US might have to face such a scenario again: a rise in unemployment and high inflation. At least we already got the second one.
An economy set up for growth guarantees employment across industries and keeps unemployment low. An economy that provides enough labor for people to finance their families' lives is key to social stability. Temporary recessions often occur after a long period of growth and are usually short-lived. Sometimes taking a break is not only healthy for people but also for the economy. The biggest problem is depression, as experienced in the 1930s. High unemployment paved the way for World War II. People with no work have no money and no hope, and suffering through hunger and homelessness are the breeding grounds of extremist philosophies. Giving people work and letting them do their daily business is the best way to secure lasting peace and avoid a scenario of inner conflict and long periods of instability.
To warn of stagflation and recession, politicians and economists look for precursors, and one of them is the negative (inverted) yield curve. Interest rates define the percentage banks pay customers for lending them money. The yield curve is usually low in the short term and high in the long term. It follows a simple principle: when someone lends money to a bank for a couple of days in a savings account, the bank can't do much with it, which is why short-term savings rates are low. When a customer agrees to let capital sit for 10 years, the bank can issue long-term loans at a much higher rate and profit from that business, which is why long-term rates are high.
Some economists argue that parts of the US yield curve have inverted, and Europe is closely tied to the US, so this may be relevant there too. Economists closely monitor the 2s10s spread, the gap between two-year and ten-year rates. However, some studies show this spread isn't a great precursor for recessions. The Federal Reserve shows in an article that short-term forward rates are much better precursors, and those spreads are going up instead of flattening toward zero.
According to Chamath, the looming recession was part of the All In podcast last week. He described the Federal Reserve's observations and drew conclusions for investors. When the economy gets rough, businesses with wacky models get slaughtered. Those who have a handle on their customers and know how to operate profitably might not show the soaring stock prices everybody got used to in the last 10 years, but will have only moderate setbacks. That is what happened during the last six months: many public growth stocks with not-yet-profitable business models lost about 80 to 90 percent of their market capitalization. Yet when he looks at the stock market indices, they are all still close to all-time highs, which means healthy businesses will continue to operate well and increase their intrinsic value.
The first sign investors will notice is the recent spike in energy prices. Chamath said that any time energy prices have jumped by 50 percent or more in the last 30 to 40 years, a recession has followed. Take crude oil: this time last year crude was about $62.7 per barrel, and now it's about $117, an 86.4 percent year-over-year increase. Another factor is the rising price of wheat due to the Ukraine crisis. He notes that the last time wheat was this expensive, the global financial crisis ensued. The Fed's plan to raise interest rates could also be a sign that a recession is coming. The Fed plans to raise rates to combat inflation, which is likely around 8 percent now, but moving forward with rate hikes is likely to crash the economy. Another thing to watch is yield curves. Chamath noted that traders will want to watch for an inverted yield curve, when prices head higher but yields are lower. An inverted yield curve has preceded every US recession since 1955. Investors need to keep an eye on these factors as we move closer to a recession.
This hasn't been the most enjoyable economic expansion in history. While the S&P 500 has almost doubled from its post-pandemic lows, the current bull market has been defined by high volatility and low consumer confidence. Thanks to high inflation and supply chain issues, Americans aren't feeling optimistic about their finances. The most recent survey found that people haven't moved on from the COVID-19 malaise that defined the past two years. Meanwhile, housing sales are declining as financing costs rise and there's a dearth of homes on the market. If the trend continues and worsens, that might augur a recession. Nevertheless, the economy is still growing and doesn't appear to show any signs of real recessionary trouble. Of course Russia's war in Ukraine hangs over all of this, but stocks don't suffer just because crazy events are going on in the world. After an initial decline following the disastrous Afghanistan withdrawal, for instance, stocks rebounded a few months later. The hardest thing to do is keep perspective, but that's generally the best medicine.
That's the end of the video. I hope you enjoyed it, and I hope it helps on your crypto investment journey. If you liked the video, let me know in the comments below and subscribe to the channel for more videos. Thanks for watching.
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