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back hey what's up guys welcome back to another episode of ston maxing so there's some time I have in between class and there's this new memo that's released by Howard marks going to spend maybe like 10 15 minutes reading through it see if I can get anything interesting out of this but seems like the underlying basis here is Mr Market is a this this figure coined by Ben R and he's a partner in a private business of yours and he'll always every day give you a price he's willing to buy or sell a piece of the business and you have the option to actually buy or sell whether or not you think it's a good opportunity the rapid market decline we saw on the first of August okay I need football to come backb yeah so one interesting thing is like okay you have this Universal consensus that if inflation continues to rise then there's going to be slowing economic growth and weak stock markets now there's sort of this Universal consensus that rate cuts are going to be happening in September and that's going to stimulate a lot of economic growth but turns out universal consensus was wrong there wasn't a big recession and now seems like that Universal consensus is that there's going to be a soft Landing so maybe there's some opposite effects here going on where today the consensus is soft Landing econom is going to be okay but in actuality there could be some hidden misners or maybe things that haven't been analyzed that could actually cause a more rough recession than what's what the sort of consensus overview is and the rate Cuts here I think are just 25 basis points I don't even think the consensus is 50 basis points how much is 25 basis points we really going to do right yeah this is interesting oh God what I do I yeah positive carry trade right so I think when we think about different types of carry trades the underlying idea is you could borrow money in this case the Yen for a very cheap even negative interest rate so I think in that case you're actually being rewarded for borrowing and you use that to make an investment in a currency that has a higher interest rate so you kind of effectively arring that spread between the interest rates so it's free money right you're borrowing and then you're investing that to some other currency yeah and this is leverage because you're you're borrowing the currencies itself you're not actually using your own money and this is essentially debt yeah so the managing purchasing index I think that we also saw the nonfarm payrolls Som rule I think she actually came to my internship Som Ru and even this person the actual person who made it didn't really think that was the end all be you okay this is interesting key observation was that in the real world things fluctuate between pretty good and not so hot but I guess within the investing World perception often swings from Flawless to hopeless so there's massive swings and and perception and sentiment maybe that's kind of this behavioral Finance part of this um shoot I forgot what cognitive dissonance was I remember learning about it in my psychology class discomfort a person feels when the behavior toline their two contradictory beliefs at the same time times of Crisis all correlations go to one are these hard rules fast rules I don't know F yelds went up so that means their prices declined where's the money going to then right a dollar Yen so if this goes up that means a dollar strengthening against the Yen okay so I think from this case you can tell that the dollar is actually strengthening more than the Euro okay yeah there's there's a decent amount probably continue this for like two three more minutes and then I got to go yeah not entirely sure what this means Reserve that forigner sold more Japanese and they bot and investors reacted as if this meant something but a foreigner sold on balance selling on balance me so Japanese is buying more of the company stocks the domestic company stocks for my Okay so he didn't even see that okay so I do have class now I'm going to probably end the the stream here it's super quick but I think this is maybe some good sort of recap maybe some further thinking on Behavior aspect of how this Market Works things to think about just in the back of my mind okay so thanks for tuning in and catch you guys in the next one peace
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