저자: BillAckman · 외국인
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결론: 경기침체가 와도 잘 자본화된 우량기업의 가치는 크게 훼손되지 않으며, 현재는 자사주 매입과 할인 자산 투자에 자금을 집중하고 있다. 경기침체와 소비 관련 논의: 패스트푸드·퀵서비스 레스토랑은 침체기에 상대적으로 잘 버티는 경향이 있다고 설명. 레버리지가 높고 경기민감도가 큰 기업이 아니라면 침체의 영향은 제한적이며, 침체는 기업가치 평가에 이미 반영되어 있다고 봄. 포트폴리오 보유 원칙: 유니버설뮤직(음악 구독)처럼 소비자가 쉽게 해지하지 않는 저비용 엔터테인먼트를 장기 보유 대상으로 언급. 장기 보유를 선호하지만 새로운 정보로 원래 판단이 바뀌면 청산할 수 있다고 함. 넷플릭스 매도 사례: 구독자 감소 발표 후 가격 하락, 이후 실제 유료 회원 및 계정 공유 문제로 사업모델 재검토(광고 모델 전환)가 필요해져 예측 가능성이 떨어져 약 225달러대에 매도. 이후 주가가 275달러 수준으로 올라 매도가 이상으로 거래되지만 당시 판단은 옳았다고 강조. 개인 투자자는 종목을 10개 정도 보유하므로 넷플릭스를 담을 여지가 있다고 설명. 도미노피자 매도 사례: 1년 가량 보유 후 매도. 인력 확보 어려움, 배달 기사 부족, 고금리 환경 등 사업 환경 악화와 높은 밸류에이션을 이유로 더 매력적인 곳에 자금을 옮기는 편이 낫다고 판단. 자본 배분 전략: 회사 주식을 월 약 150만 주(발행주식의 약 0.75%) 규모로 매입하는 공격적인 자사주 매입 프로그램 운용. 자산가치 대비 약 35% 할인 거래, 보유 기업들도 본질가치 대비 깊은 할인 상태라고 평가. 또한 1~2.5% 규모의 기회주의적 헤지 포지션을 여러 개 운용 중이며 6~10배 수익 가능성이 있다고 봄. 신규 대형 주식 투자 대상은 아직 충분히 싸지 않다고 판단. 추가 매수 대상: 현재가에서 보유 종목 모두 추가 매수 가능하나 포트폴리오 내 비중 제한이 조건. 현재 적극 확대 중인 것은 Howard Hughes(HHH) 지분으로, 다른 주주에게 지분 13% 추가 매입 제안(텐더오퍼) 진행 중이며 결과는 수 주 내 확인 예정이라고 밝힘. 리스크/조건: 경기침체가 레버리지 높은 기업에는 파산 위험으로 작용. 명시적 가격 전망은 없음. 출연자 전망: 장기적으로 우량 자산 보유 및 할인 구간 매수 전략 유지, 단기 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
hello joining me today is highly respected investor Bill Ackman from Pershing Square Holdings now his portfolio is heavily exposed to U.S consumer through names such as Burger King owner restaurant Brands Chipotle and Lowe's so Bill are you worried about potential recession hurting us consumer consumers starting to spend less and of course this would feed through to lower earnings of some of these companies in your portfolio I would say the following um you know the where we are in the restaurant space is is kind of the highest value per dollar right Chipotle is an incredible meal at a very low cost for a family and in a recessionary environment you know historically people don't stop eating out but they might adjust from the sit-down restaurant you know you know with menus and a waitress uh to uh you know a fast food environment or a place where they go pick up their own food at the counter and you know actually the the fast food if you will the Quick Service restaurants have generally done well in recessionary environments and I think the the overarching point that it you know the the value of a business unless it's a highly levered uh very economically sensitive company is not particularly affected by the ons you know uh by the event of a recession right if you own it the value of a stock right the value of an interest in a company is the present value of the cash that business generates over its life and if it's a business that should exist forever I'll pick Hilton for example um they'll we can expect that over you know over in in past history there's been a recession every seven or eight years let's assume the future is the same and there's a recession every seven or eight years going forward it doesn't that's kind of factored into the value of the of the Enterprise the only reason why a recession creates it destroys value is you have a company that is highly levered and then if revenues decline you know there are cash logos negative and they kind of they can't support their debt and they go bankrupt right but if you own a very well capitalized business I don't think a recession has a meaningful impact it might affect that Year's revenues and cash flow but that's just one line item and a long spreadsheet of cash flows that you discount if you will into the present but the businesses we own Universal Music being the largest one uh and a good example you know people are not going to think cancel their apple music subscription because we're in recession it's the cheapest form of entertainment it's you know 10 cent an hour or something like this compare that to a movie or a video game and you pay a lot more I mean you you sold a stake in Netflix this year after only owning it for three months you sold your steak in dominoes you only bought that last year aren't you a believer in long-term investment you know particularly with Netflix obviously share prices up quite a bit since you sold it so yes so we are we look for businesses we can own sort of speak forever our favorite holding period is something that we never need to sell Universal Music I hope is something we'll never need to sell but we always reserve the right that if new information comes to life that causes us to reassess our original thinking uh you know prepare to exit and and Netflix is really the traditional example of that I mean a business uh What attracted US Stock was down from the you know middle 700s to you know High 300s on a subscriber miss that the company attributed to you know covered difficulty predicting kind of the covid uh you know Netflix is huge beneficiary in covert and the thought was you know they got a little bit off trend um three months later they came back and said well we're not sure it's actually coveted we think that the we have a much larger number of unpaying I.E people who share passwords then we thought or then we at least disclosed previously uh this is causing us to reassess our business model we're going to go to you know an advertising model and while we have enormous confidence and a management team that's done a fantastic job over many many years uh it's a completely new approach to their business and I think it for us it made the future difficult to predict in terms of the future you know what what's going to happen and we own we're very concentrated investor we put a large amount of capital in each commitment we want these to be things that we can predict with a high degree of confidence over a long period of time and Netflix became if you will unpredictable for us so we sold it and we sold it around 225 a share now 275 this year um and uh I actually remember a precise exit price uh it's trading above the price we exited but that doesn't mean it wasn't the right decision to exit for us an investor owns 100 stocks there's a place for Netflix an investor owns nine or ten in light of the uncertainty created by the changes in how they're going to approach their Market we felt it was not something that could fit into our portfolio in general we like to own things for the long term on dominoes we actually made a profitable investment over the course of the Year our original holding period intention was not a year but the world changed in a pretty dramatic way one got a lot more difficult to get labor a lot more difficult to find drivers uh much higher interest rate environment and the combination of those factors and the valuation that when we sold made it in our view just a less attractive opportunity we'd rather deploy the cash elsewhere I mean obviously the market has thrown up some big opportunities this year have you have you sort of been buying anything new recently so actually the biggest so we put our capital in two places one we launched uh one of the more aggressive Buy-Back programs out there uh we're buying in about a million and a half shares uh you know approaching about three quarters of a percent of our shares outstanding every month that's a pretty aggressive program it's about 28 of the average shares outstanding we think that's the easiest investment that we can make right now one we're well capitalized um you know plenty of cash on hand uh two we're trading at it as you know a 35 discount to nav uh three our companies are trading at in our view deep discounts their intrinsic values you get the benefit of that double discount uh so we think that's been a good place to deploy Capital The Other Place we've been deploying capital is some of these sort of more opportunistic Hedges we're investing a relatively small you know maybe one two two and a half percent of our capital in each of these various commitments together comprising at cost you know five or six percent of our Capital but Investments we can make 6X 8X 10x and sometimes more that seems a better use of capital for our marginal dollar than the next big Equity commitment and we've looked at a couple of things become closer to prices where we would own them but stocks haven't really gotten cheap enough for us to take our last dollar and buy the next big commitment so I know that you like to take large takes in companies but not controlling Stakes but of your existing Holdings and is it in terms of which ones you'd buy more of um is there any sort of that they're approaching the level which actually don't want to increase no I mean I think we'd buy more of anything we owned the current price with the only caveat being it how large a percentage of the portfolio any individual position might be so the only position we're trying to increase as we speak I have to be cautious on how I speak about it because we have an ongoing tender offer but Howard Hughes stock it was one of our smaller positions down at 1.40 plus percent for the year and we've made an offer to the other shareholders to buy an incremental 13 of the company and we'll find out in the next couple weeks what percentage we get but that's the only thing that we're buying right now although in effect when we buy back shares we're buying a proportional interest obviously and everything though thank you
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