저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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IPO 과열 경고가 핵심 결론이다. 2019년 4월 신규 상장이 폭증했고(이번 주 17건, 1분기 전체 18건), 공급 확대가 시장 전체에 압박을 준다고 주장한다. 2019년 신규 상장 성과: 평균 상장가 대비 +20%, 최근 상장주는 평균 +2%, 42%는 첫 거래가 이후 손실. 초기 매수 기회를 잡지 못한 일반 투자자에겐 수익이 제한적이라는 점을 강조. 개별 종목: 줌(Zoom)·핀터레스트는 최근 급등 후 과대평가 우려. 줌은 36달러 상장, 65달러 부근. 핀터레스트는 19달러 상장, 28달러 부근. 인텔의 중국 사업 둔화 발표 후 관련 기술주 조정 가능성 언급. 주목 종목 조준: 준이아(Jumia, JMIA)는 아프리카판 아마존으로 소개. 상장가 14.5달러, 첫 거래 18.95달러, 현재 약 36달러(상장 대비 +147%). 과거 알리바바·메르카도리브레 사례를 들며 장기 성장성 긍정. 다만 많이 오른 종목이라 추격매수보다 조정 시 매수 리스트 등록 권고. 의료기기: 쇼크웨이브(+127%), 실크로드메디컬(+89%) 언급, 확신은 없으나 추가 학습 의향. 핀테크: 중국 투자자 대상 온라인 브로커 핀테크(+83%)는 중국 IPO 특성상 위험 경고. 소프트웨어: 사이버보안 Tufin(+73%), 페이저듀티(+65%) 언급, 매우 비싸고 수익성 낮다는 평가. 결론: 최고 성과 종목 대부분은 현 수준에서 추격할 가치가 낮으며, 기술 IPO 사이클이 비이성적 과열 구간에 진입했을 수 있다는 우려.
다듬은 글
somebody wants higher stock prices I mean that's really our only ideological commitment here I may have money my greatest fear is nothing to do with Ernie's or the Train work or even the Federal Reserve know what I'm worried about is the deluge of initial public offerings that are flooding in the market I know I've said this before I'll keep saying it we've seen a bunch of ultra frothy IPOs lately you know what and froth whether it's in the stock market or in this class not a good sign see the stock market's all about supply in a man when you flood it with new supply that puts real pressure on the averages every time we get another one of these deals that's engineered to be red-hot money managers need to sell something else to raise cash that they want to participate Vasily's the IPO cycle goes on the deals become less rewarding investors start getting burned and people end up turning against stocks as an asset class and making a mistake we've had a tsunami of deals nearly half of this year's IPO activity has come in just the first three weeks of April 17 IPOs this week versus 18 in the entirety of the first quarter we had eight last week alone this is nuts people this week it feels like we're in the eye of the storm with no deal scheduled but there might be as many as six more coming next week I don't know if the mark you can handle all that new supply especially because say after the close tonight we were from Intel saying dramatic slowdown in Chinese business well you know they're gonna sell a lot of text and a lot of the next deals that are coming artex so soon I don't want to give you an update on the state of the IP IP o deluge because there's some very important lessons to learn first of all how are these newly minted stocks performing we tend to forget about them after the second or third day don't we while the average IPO from the class of 2019 is up 20 percent from its deal price the meetings only up 13 percent and roughly a third of them are down versus where they came public still if you can get shares in the actual offering you've done pretty well for yourself but those shares are incredibly hard to come by what if you can't get a piece of the deal one average these new IPOs are up just 2% from where they started trading two percent although 42% of these have lost you money lost you money if you got in look on the first trade and I've gotta tell you I think that's pretty darn sold there's nothing surprising in those numbers initial public offerings can be insanely profitable for anyone lucky enough to get in a lot but in the offering itself but buying these same stocks in the aftermarket it has always been an iffy proposition and look the IPO market is indeed starting to get frothy a week ago we got two huge deals Pinterest and zoom video communications at the time I told you the initial moves in these stocks made me bit nervous but since then they've only continued to rock it higher pictures came public at 19 Sergey 2442 closed last Thursday now it's at 28 it's up another 18% it's rally for four straight days this week zoom debuted at 36 poll bought at 72% on the first day of trading 62 and continued to run climbing to 65 today I bet you those stocks both go down off of what Intel said even though they're not even related to what Intel's talking about you know where I stand on these two I think they're terrific companies but the stocks are getting ridiculously overvalued versus similar merchandise and they only get more expensive of course as they go higher what about the best performing IPOs do they have anything interesting going for them okay let's work our way down in the class of 2019 the best performer here is really intriguing one that I just didn't focus on enough it's called Junia technologies yes Jay m.i.a which some are calling the Amazon of Africa pretty straightforward concept Jimmy operates online stores in 14 African countries including Ghana Kenya Ivory Coast Morocco in Egypt they sell everything from goods and services to online food delivery the plane tickets - classified ads and they also have a platform where small businesses can sell their own merchandise online Jubei stock has been a juggernaut and this is one of the few deals where you could have made a killing in the aftermarket I wish again I'd spotted myself thinking public at 1450 started trading 1895 right out of the gate and now it's just under 36 bucks giving IPO investors a phenomenal one hundred and forty seven percent gain even if you couldn't get a piece of the deal you're still up 89 percent from where the stock opened and Jimmy only came public two weeks ago I am very intrigued by the story still what Alibaba became public calling itself the Amazon in China it turned to be terrific long-term investment same goes from a card really Mercado though I'm sorry baccata Libre the Amazon of Latin America by the way full disclosure I was one of the initial investors in that I was a hedge fund manager of course that's a long long time ago it makes sense to me that you might follow in their footsteps the first mover in Africa and I think that there's real demand for what they're offering we're talking about a continent with 400 million Internet users a number that's only going to keep climbing and Jimmy's only tapped into 1% of that I would say there's a ton of room to grow portfolio managers are desperate for high-quality ways to play the amazing growth in Africa Jimmy is the one however you know me I hate to chase the stock that's run so much I say put on your shopping list and wait for a pullback and they do come do you think many people for three hours ago is I mean pullback in tech into what Intel said tonight next up we've got a pair of medical device companies shockwave medicals the second best performing IPO of 2019 it's up 127 percent from its early March debut Silk Road medicals in third place up 89% since it came public two weeks ago shockwaves technology uses sound waves to unblock harder arteries that are filled with plaque this could be revolutionary Silk Road is minimally invasive procedures that helps reduce the risk of strokes in patients with carotid artery disease and can could be breakthrough both these stops correctly spiked right out of the gate but while Silk Road pretty much stalled these levels shockwaves continued rally that monster for dollar move today at the end of the day these are two speculoos small cat medical device companies I don't know enough about either one of them to recommend them to you but I'm happy to do more homework so I'm issuing an open invitation to the CEOs of shockwave and Silk Road to come on the show and explain the respective mousetraps of course anyone who's used them or knows how to use them please act you know Jim Cramer Twitter right then there's a financial technology company up FinTech hmm it's up 83% since it came public a little over a month ago so it was created for the FinTech move does it well sure enough this is an online brokerage firm focused on Chinese investors stock had a huge run thanks in large part to the recent rebound Chinese equity markets but you Pete FinTech is an American depository receipt of a company's already trading in China do you know history tells us those 10 those tend to be real risky we saw this over and over again with the Chinese IPOs from the class of 2018 they post these huge early gains then their stocks tend to get obliterated so if you got a win in this one here's what I want you to do tomorrow morning this sounded speaks Wow thousands of words got it nobody ever got hurt taking a product after that we got a pair of software companies both of which came public exactly two weeks ago there's toughen tu fi n so we're of 73 percent from its IPO price its cybersecurity you know how hot that is and then there's pager duty up 65 percent which helps companies coordinate the data they're getting from mobile devices then use it to make real-time decisions sound concept once again we saw some big first day gains in these stocks once again these stocks are incredibly expensive and underlying companies are nowhere near profitable I love a good enterprise software story hey I created the cloud Kings list but it's hard for me to get a read on where these tech IPOs deserve the trade I can tell you they seem too rich for me here's the bottom line we're being flooded with new IPOs here but when you look at the best performers from the class of 2019 very few of them seem worth chasing to me at these levels in fact given the big jumps to stocks like zoom and Pinterest and those weak numbers and forecasts from Intel tonight I'm starting to worry that this IPO cycle especially the tech portion may be reaching irrational exuberance territory
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