U.S. Economic Collapse - Michael Burry Predicts Financial Crisis

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마이클 버리는 글로벌 저금리·부채 확대가 금융 위기 재발 위험을 키우고 있다고 경고한다. 핵심 주장: 2008년 금융위기 때처럼 또 다른 대형 금융위기가 다가오고 있으며, 쉬운 돈(easy money)과 마이너스 실질금리가 위험 가격 책정 메커니즘을 망가뜨린다고 본다. 이는 경제에 건강하지 않다는 입장이다. 정책 비판: 연준의 정책은 부의 격차를 벌려 정치적 극단주의를 키우고 워싱턴의 교착을 부른다고 주장한다. 정치인들이 성장으로 부채를 해결할 수 있다는 생각에 중독돼 있으며 결국 시민이 대가를 치른다고 지적한다. 부채 우려: 공공부문이 부채의 주요 소비자가 됐고, 연준 대차대조표 레버리지가 과도하다고 우려한다. 낙관 요소: 미국은 여전히 혁신의 중심이며, 기술은 실생활을 개선하는 도구여야 한다는 긍정적 견해를 밝힌다. 과거 적중 언급: 버리는 2005년 서브프라임 붕괴에 베팅해 성공했으며, 그린스펀은 이를 통계적 착시나 동전 던지기 운이라고 평가했다고 언급된다. 자산 방향 예측: 본 영상에서 대상 자산(주식·금·비트코인·금리·환율 등)의 1~3개월 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 예측 발언은 확인되지 않는다. 매크로 위기 경고만 있어 예측 발언 없음. 출연자 전망: 장기적으로 금융위기 재발 가능성을 경고하나 시점·목표가는 제시되지 않았다. 주의: 영상은 2016년 1월 게시본이며 자막은 자동 인식이라 일부 오류가 있을 수 있다.

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01. US economic collapse Michael bu predicts financial crisis genius from The Big Short predicts next financial crash is coming eccentric and hard rock loving hedge fund manager Michael bur brilliantly interpreted by Christian Bale in the recent Hollywood movie The Big Short warns that another major fin financial crash is looming this may be a financial crisis warning you won't want to ignore the big short recounts howb and a handful of other sufficiently distant Wall Street professionals saw the 2007 subprime mortgage Crisis coming taking measures to profit from it even as they were appalled by its effects the big short film is adapted from the best-selling non-fiction book by the same name written by Michael Lewis published 2010 while analyzing the the US mortgage numbers bur discovered before anyone else that a major financial crisis was brewing back in 2005 he decided to bet against the Apparently thriving real estate market selling short by investing in a new customized Financial product targeting subprime mortgages the day the bubble exploded and burst it did he and his clients made huge profits after the financial crisis bu focused on investing in water however bu has not lost his pension for issuing dire predictions in a recent interview with New York Magazine the neurologist turned Financial Guru Reveals His concern that Society has learned little from the last financial crisis and that debt and so-called easy money are pushing the world toward the adoption of negative interest rates placing tremendous stress on the financial system bur says that easy money hasn't worked adding the fed's policies widen the wealth gap which feeds political extremism forcing gridlock in Washington it seems the world is headed toward negative real interest rates on a global scale this is toxic interest rates are used to price risk and so in the current environment the risk pricing mechanism is broken that is not healthy for an economy Source Michael bur real life Market genius from The Big Short thinks another financial crisis is looming New York Magazine December 28th 2015 given bur's record his economic collapse concerns are worth considering Michael bur is nervous about the future in particular bur worries about debt the idea that growth will remedy our debts is so addictive for politicians but the citizens end up paying the price the public sector has really stepped up as a consumer of debt the Federal Reserves balance sheet is leveraged 77 col1 like I said the absur abity it just befuddles me Source ibid bu is not entirely pessimistic he still sees the United States as being the center of innovation Innovation especially in America is continuing at a Breakneck Pace even in areas facing substantial political or regulatory headwinds Americans have so much natural entrepreneurial Drive the caveat is that it is technology that should be a tool making lives better in the real world and in line with the American Spirit of getting better and better at something whether it's curing cancer or creating a better taxi service Source ibid bu has often wondered why Washington if not Wall Street never asked him how he came to his predictions and successful conclusions about the subprime crisis in the housing bubble bur said he learned the answer Al Hunt of Bloomberg television who had read Michael Lewis's book The Big Short which includes the story of my predictions asked Mr Greenspan directly the former fed chairman responded that my insights had been a statistical illusion perhaps he suggested I was just a supremely lucky flipper of coins Source I Saw The Crisis coming why didn't the fed the New York Times April 3rd 2010 regardless luck can strike twice and if Michael bu was right the first time investors may not want to entirely chalk it up to luck this time around two if the big short genius turns out to be right on his second financial crisis prediction