저자: JamieDimon · 외국인
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JP모건 CEO 제이미 다이먼이 미국이 2008년 금융위기나 닷컴버블보다 훨씬 심각한 상황, 어쩌면 대공황에 가까운 침체를 준비하고 있다고 경고했다는 내용을 다룬 영상이다. 진행자는 연준의 금리 인상이 가계 부담을 키우고 리세션 우려가 최고조라고 주장한다. 다이먼의 발언으로 소프트랜딩 확률 10%, 하드랜딩 확률 20~30%라는 식의 언급을 소개한다. 미국 경제 지표로는 7월 고용이 강했지만 연준이 75bp 추가 인상할 것이라는 점, 소매판매가 월간 증가하지 않은 점, 제조업 지표는 개선된 점을 언급한다. 소비는 미국 경제의 약 2/3를 차지하므로 중요하다고 강조한다. 기업 실적으로는 타겟(Target)이 이익 급감과 재고 처분을 위한 가격 인하를 발표하고 전망을 하향한 점을 들어 경기 둔화 신호로 해석한다. 월마트는 시장 기대를 상회했지만 리세션 가능성을 여전히 경고했다고 전한다. 유럽에서는 노르웨이 국부펀드가 상반기 약 1,740억 달러 손실(수익률 -14.4%)을 기록했다고 소개하며 인플레이션과 세계 경기침체 우려가 자산 가격에 타격을 줬다고 설명한다. 마지막으로 라디오 방송사 등에서 인건비 상승으로 인한 해고가 나타나고 있다고 언급한다. 진행자는 미국 경제에 여전히 거시 불확실성이 많고 유럽과 태평양 지역의 정치적 긴장도 존재하므로 매일 시장을 분석하며 신중해야 한다고 결론짓는다.
다듬은 글
Hello everyone, welcome back to my YouTube channel. Welcome, everyone, welcome back. Today we are receiving more bearish news from the market. As uncertainty fills up, the American people are becoming more concerned about the possibility of a U.S. recession, something that has already been repeated by many media outlets, economists, and the American people. Right now, U.S. recession concern is growing at an all-time high, and economists are predicting that a recession could enter a very long and severe stage.
So there are economists who really take a bearish stance on the U.S. economy, fearing it's going to be long and severe as the Fed continues to raise interest rates. We are seeing that interest rates are actually hurting the American people more. More Americans are now willing to take on debt in order to ease their financial strain, and they are being forced to use their credit cards and, in the end, pay high interest rates due to multiple rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. This is a very problematic situation. We have seen mortgage rates rise significantly and the cost of living rise significantly. Even though inflation has peaked, and we are now seeing inflation ease, will this trend continue as fear of a recession mounts to an all-time high? We had a strong jobs report in July, but it will still cause the American people to become more worried, because the Fed is going to enforce another 75 basis points. That is very concerning, because they are willing to enforce a tighter monetary policy within the U.S. economy when the main goal is to slow down inflation and also slow down overall U.S. economic performance.
Let's look at what JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon has said. He said, "Hey guys, I think the U.S. is preparing for something far worse than what we experienced in 2008, and than what we experienced during the dot-com bubble. We might experience something far worse than a recession; it might be a depression, and it could be within this era." However, there are still many macro uncertainties filling up the U.S. economy, and fear is growing. Some even predict that the U.S. economy includes a chance of something worse than a recession. To me, it could be a dot-com-style bubble where everything just bursts. Financially speaking, it's a far worse situation, a depression like the late 19th and early 20th century. So JP Morgan's CEO, Jamie Dimon, is making an economic forecast predicting a bearish outlook for the U.S. economy. We have seen demand for oil continue to decline, and China has cut its interest rates, which is very concerning since they are the second-largest economy in the world. He said that if he had to put odds on it, there's a 10 percent chance of a soft landing and a 20 to 30 percent chance of a hard landing, a recession. So there is still a high chance of the U.S. entering a recession, and right now we have to be very prepared, because the worst might happen and things could worsen from here.
There is still a lot of uncertainty. Let's look ahead. Target posted a quarterly earnings report that was very unimpressive to investors; they missed investors' economic forecasts, which was really troubling. Retail sales for July showed no monthly increase in consumer spending. We have seen fuel prices continue to fall, but the cost of food is still rising, and that is very troubling. Not only that, we have seen rent rise tremendously. However, consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of the U.S. economy, and we have seen somewhat moderate spending here. So not everything is cause for worry, but there is still more data coming out. We just received U.S. manufacturing data, which rose last month, so we are still seeing economic activity, but recession concerns are still there.
Let's move on and talk about Target's earnings. Target missed economic forecasts, which was very unimpressive. Their profit plunged as they slashed prices to clear out a glut of unwanted inventory. What this means is slower spending, an inability to liquidate those assets, and now they are restocking unwanted inventory. This is what we are seeing, and the real retail and merchandise outlook for the year was even cut from forecasts made just a couple of weeks ago. That is still a troubling sign from the economy and adds to recession concerns. Unwanted inventory is a big problem right now. Investors are very cautious about what they are willing to spend, and they don't want to take on more debt than they can afford. Many more metrics are coming out, so it's a lot to watch. Target's profit fell by 90 percent from a year ago. That is how terrible it is. Walmart did post quarterly results yesterday and beat market expectations, but it still reiterated the possibility of a recession as it maintained its price forecast. There is still a lot coming out.
Let's look at Europe. The world's largest sovereign wealth fund, Norway's, lost more than 174 billion dollars in the first half of the year. Inflation for one year, can you believe it? 174 billion dollars. This tremendous outflow is causing serious financial pain for many investors, and this is just the beginning. The 1.3 trillion dollar fund returned negative 14.4 percent during the period as stocks and bonds reacted violently to global recession fears and skyrocketing inflation. Inflation has gone far out of control; there is no control over it. The very problematic situation of inflation is a result of printing and stimulating trillions of dollars into the economy without adjusting for its effects. The fund did not perform well and lost more than 174 billion dollars' worth of assets, which is really troubling. It is the largest fund in the world, and losing 174 billion dollars in the first half of 2022 is a significant chunk of money coming out of it. That's very shocking news from the market.
Last but not least, a company just announced a layoff at its radio station. As costs begin to rise, businesses are now feeling the pain of labor costs and the cost of services and operations. Everything has gone up, and now many entities are being forced to lay off workers just to survive the possibility of the U.S. entering a recession.
So what are my thoughts on the U.S. economy as of right now? There are still many macroeconomic factors to take into consideration, along with political tensions in Europe and the Pacific region. As of right now, fear is growing and recession concerns are mounting to all-time highs. We have to be very careful and continue to analyze the market day by day, and many bearish viewers keep coming out. That is what we are seeing. I hope you enjoyed my video. If you did, please click the subscribe button and don't forget to click the like button. Thank you.
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