JIM CRAMER WEIGHS IN ON INFLATION | FAST STOCK MARKET NEWS

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2022년 6월 22일 기준, 시장은 베어마켓 랠리로 소폭 상승 마감했으나 인플레이션과 금리 인상 우려로 여전히 약세 경계가 필요하다는 진단. 시장 등락: S&P500 +2.45%, 다우 +2.15%, 나스닥 +2.51%, 러셀2000 +1.7%로 마감. 랠리는 기술주와 에너지가 주도했으며, 여름 휴가철 항공유·휘발유 수요 증가로 에너지 가격 상승이 이어질 것으로 봄. 경기 전망: 골드만삭스가 향후 1년 미국 경기침체 확률을 30%로 상향. 지난주는 약 2년 만에 최악의 한 주였고 기술적으로 과매도 상태였기에 반등은 예상된 것이라고 설명. 인플레이션과 금리: 주식이 계속 오르면 인플레이션이 지속되므로, 인플레이션을 잡으려면 시장 하락과 금리 상승이 필요하다는 논리. Cramer 인용으로 고금리·주가 하락이 소비 억제 등 Fed의 목표에 부합한다고 평가하나, 주택 가격은 여전히 전년보다 높아 금리 정점에 대한 낙관은 틀렸다고 언급. 기업·고용 이슈: Lennar의 실적에서 부유한 주택 시장 수요가 확인되었고, 실리콘밸리 기업들이 엔지니어 임금 인플레이션을 피해 애틀랜타·찰스턴·내슈빌·리노·콜로라도 등으로 이전하는 추세. 대형사 이전과 소형사 자금 조달 어려움으로 실리콘밸리에서 첫 대규모 해고가 나올 것으로 예측. 리스크 및 결론: 증시가 계속 오르면 Fed가 금리를 더 공격적으로 올리고, 이후 시장이 하락해 포트폴리오가 타격을 받아 경기침체로 이어질 수 있어 균형 잡기가 매우 어렵다는 진단. 진행자 본인은 전액 투자는 피할 것이라고 밝힘.

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01. welcome back to fast stock market news where i give you all the news as fast as i can so today was a nice little green day guys we had a nice little uh bear market rally a lot of people are saying that and i personally am in the camp that it believes that as well as we see the s p 500 finish it up 2.45 in the green the dow finishing up 2.15 on the green nasdaq finishing up 2.51 in the green the russell finishing up 1.7 in the green overall guys um personally and none of this financial advice i would still wouldn't go in the market there are way too many headwinds today's rally was basically driven by um tech stocks as well as energy overall driving the market forward uh a lot of people believe that energy is going to continue to go up higher based on the demand that will be required especially during the summer holidays when a lot of people will be going out and traveling that means a lot more jet fuel for planes that means a lot more gasoline for just overall families and even as uh we rallied today the goldman sachs actually raised their chances of the us recession to 30 over the next year so it's still like it's still a very bearish camp we're in guys and uh stocks actually rallied because we were honestly well overdue for a bit of a bounce we were massively oversold last week we had our worst week in about two years just by the charge this looks absolutely abysmal and today was a nice little green day but as i mentioned me personally guys i'm i wouldn't go all in and as cramer stated here basically uh inflation won't come down anytime soon if tuesday's rally lasts so if equities continue to go up higher that means that the inflation is going to persist guys overall we kind of need in in order to get this inflation down we need the market to go down and we need interest rates to keep rising and actually kramer some sums it all up in this clip right here that i'm going to pull up for you guys take a look higher interest rates lower stock market they are doing their job causing consumers to pull in their horns it's all good for the fed so far except one problem after all that negativity and caution we learn this quote once again in this market we are at prices that are still significantly higher than the year go period higher so after that higher rates declining stock prices lower price adjustments we still haven't popped the bubble scarce rentals and greater household information inexorably drive home prices higher so in other words all this stuff that i read that made me feel like you know what we are going to be seeing a top in interest rates sometime soon wrong just wrong there is good news in this report though there are a lot of rich towns where lennar's building when i was out west in silicon valley i heard many execs how they intended to pull up stakes from their home turf and moved to some of these towns the ones that were mentioned atlanta charleston nashville reno cities like in colorado this pattern is consistent with what lennar is saying why are these tech companies moving well there's simply aren't enough engineers in silicon valley so wage inflation is nuts and because there are so many potential employers these engineers have all the leverage so the companies would rather move to new cities where there are fewer potential employers and people can't job hop as easily job hop remember that term that's wage inflation oddly these new wealthy cities are a godsend for jay pal because he needs to break still one more cycle wage inflation and the tech industry is finally doing something about it it's walking i predict the first mass layoffs will be in of all places silicon valley as the larger companies migrate to cheaper locations and the smaller companies struggle to raise money guys basically if the market keeps going up it's not going to do the bet any favors overall we're just gonna like in a very tough situation market goes up uh fed gets more aggressive with interest rates market goes down our portfolios tank and people start to go in and we basically go into a recession so it's a very hard balancing act overall so uh yeah guys that's basically what's happening today in the market um thanks again for watching the video and i'll see you guys again tomorrow take care everyone thanks again everyone for watching fast stock market news if you enjoyed the video consider subscribing commenting or liking the video i would greatly appreciate it my name is gio and i'll see you tomorrow guys take care