저자: NateGregory · 외국인
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결론: 빌 애크먼은 오미크론 변이가 오히려 강세장을 부를 수 있다고 보지만, 영상 진행자는 변이의 강도가 아직 불명확해 어느 쪽인지 단정하기 이르다고 본다. 배경: 2020년 3월 애크먼은 CNBC에서 팬데믹에 따른 셧다운과 경기 붕괴를 경고했으나, 2021년 12월에는 입장이 바뀌어 변이가 증시에 긍정적일 수 있다고 주장한다. 진행자는 이 입장 변화를 소개한다. 경제 상황: 연준은 약 3~5조 달러의 부양책을 풀었고 백신이 보급됐지만, 인플레이션이 기록적으로 높고 공급망 위기가 이어지고 있다. 미 실업률은 12월 기준 약 4.6%로 언급된다. 시장 반응: 미국 첫 오미크론 확진 소식에 다우지수는 약 600포인트, 이후 추가로 400~500포인트 하락했다. 투자자들은 2020년의 충격과 연준 통화 증발에 따른 불안이 남아 있다고 본다. 인플레이션: 2021년 10월 소비자물가 상승률은 약 6.2%로, 연준 목표(2~3%)의 두 배 수준이다. 진행자는 스태그플레이션 가능성을 언급한다. 애크먼의 논리: 변이가 전염성은 높지만 약하면 독감처럼 풍토병화되어 경제가 정상화되고 강세장(불마켓)이 올 수 있다. 반대로 변이가 강하고 봉쇄가 재개되면 경기침체와 추가 통화 완화가 나올 수 있다. 연준·재무장관 우려: 옐런 재무장관과 파월 연준 의장은 변이가 노동력 공급을 지연시킬 수 있다고 우려했고, 파월은 '일시적(transitory)' 표현을 폐기해야 한다고 말했다. 2022년 금리 인상은 한 차례 예정돼 있었다. 중국 등 주요국 여행·국경 제한이 공급망을 더 압박할 수 있다는 점도 리스크로 제시된다. 출연자 전망: 진행자는 변이의 강도가 확인되기 전까지 시장이 오르락내리락할 것이며, 지금 시점에서 애크먼 또는 반대 시나리오 중 어느 쪽이 맞는지 판단하기는 이르다고 본다.
다듬은 글
what's up money minds and welcome back to another video edition of market briefs today is december 2nd and here's some business and financial news you can finally use bill ackman has officially changed his position on our pandemic if you remember in march of 2020 bill ackman went on cnbc and basically said that hell was coming for the united states and we needed to close everything down for 30 days he got pretty emotional talking about the possible death toll and crashing of our economy but by december of 2021 bill ackman has started to change his opinion on what this pandemic could mean for our economy and this comes at a very interesting time as the new omicron covet variant has started to spread around the world so today i want to talk all about bill ackman and his new thoughts on our pandemic and why he actually thinks that this new coveted variant could be very good for the stock market but before we get into all of that my name is nate from minority mindset news and if you like this video then smash that thumbs up button below and hit that notification bell too that way youtube shows our videos to way more money mines around the world and we can keep making videos just like this one in march of 2020 bill ackman had some pretty strong thoughts about our pandemic and what it was going to do to our economy he wanted everything shut down and essentially predicted a complete economic crash and in some ways bill ackman was kind of right because of the pandemic our economy entered a recession this is because of social distancing and economic lockdowns everything had to close and when everything closed people were out of work they were out of work for several months this meant that people weren't going to be making any money and they couldn't spend any money so businesses were going to take a hit too ultimately that led to one of the fastest stock market crashes in history however a lot has changed since then the federal reserve has printed around three to five trillion dollars in stimulus in order to lift our economy from this recession and today we actually have a vaccine that helps in fighting against this new virus however not everything is positive though we now have inflation that is hitting new record highs and we have a supply chain crisis that is pushing inflation even higher in addition from that original virus we now have a new variant now not a lot is known about this new variant and i'm not going to talk too much about it because i am not a doctor but experts believe right now that this new variant is very transmissible meaning that it can go between person to person very quickly and this could pose a major threat to our society and by the beginning of december this new variant had reached america the cdc officially confirmed that the united states has its first official case of the omnicron virus this news has sent the stock market reeling the dow dropped by around 600 points when the cdc and world health organization first identified the omnicron virus and then it dropped even more by around four or five hundred points when the first case reached america and there is a couple different reasons for this for one the stock market kind of has whiplash from what happened in 2020.
the markets essentially closed down in 2020 because no businesses were making money the united states was entering a recession investors pulled their money from the stock market because they had no idea when this pandemic was going to end and they had no idea how our economy was going to fare in addition the federal reserve was printing a lot of money and when you print a lot of money inflation starts to go up basically inflation is when the monetary supply of a country is increased what happens next is the value of every dollar that is in your economy starts to go down the more money that is printed the less all of your money is worth and in a vacuum this really wouldn't be a problem however as people have more money they tend to go out and spend more that means businesses have to produce more the problem here is that back in march of 2020 companies couldn't really produce more because they didn't have the staff or the resources to do so people were getting thousands of dollars from the federal reserve and they were going out and spending that money this sent our supply chains into a frenzy they simply couldn't keep up with demand because even though people weren't working demand was high the federal reserve wanted to incentivize people to spend money so they did a lot of things they pumped a lot of money into the economy and they dropped interest rates for loans so there was all of this money in our economy but this ultimately caused the price of things to go up because demand was so high but the supply for everything was low prices needed to go up and we are still facing a lot of these supply chain issues today in addition wages are starting to go up throughout america because inflation is rising and by december our unemployment rate was around 4.6 so people are getting a steady income and they're going out and spending money with a brand new higher wage back to the stock market though that scares investors because if wages are starting to rise that means inflation is getting higher too naturally that means businesses have to pay their employees more that means costs are going to rise and some businesses aren't going to be able to handle that eventually what this means is earnings reports are going to be lower for next quarter and the quarter after in addition companies are already taking on a bunch of additional costs that are related to the pandemic extra shipping fees and extra cleaning fees for all of their stores and locations and again nobody really knows what is going to go on with this omnicron variant so the majority of investors were scared in march of 2020.
investor and hedge fund manager bill ackman is not afraid he's actually saying this new omnicron variant could push the stock market way higher into a bull market for the new york stock exchange you typically have two types of markets you have a bear market and you have a bull market when the economy is in a downturn and people are spending a lot less money well they don't have money to put into additional things they don't have money to invest in their future because they're living paycheck to paycheck this would lead to a bear market there is a lot more sellers meaning there's a lot more stocks and companies on wall street than there are buyers for all of those stocks this sends the price of stocks way down on the complete opposite side you have what's called a bull market a bull market is what we saw before the pandemic started and we had one of the longest and biggest bull markets in stock market history after the great recession of 2008.
this means that the demand for buying stocks is way higher on wall street and there are a ton of buyers on the market this eventually pushes the price of stocks higher because there is such huge demand for buying stocks so bill ackman believes that this new omnichrome variant could send our stock market into bullish territory but that almost completely contradicts what most investors believe so does he know something that we don't well right now we don't really know a lot about this new variant we don't know how strong it is and we don't know if it's going to cause deaths like we saw in 2020 and in parts of 2021 if it is really transmissible but it's not very strong meaning it doesn't send people to the hospital and risk lives well then things will continue as normal our economy can continue to grow at the rate that it is scheduled to like the federal reserve has said and for investors it means that this version of the virus is getting weaker covid and our pandemic is starting to go away i am not a health expert but according to experts as a virus continues to spread throughout our society it usually goes off in two strains and just to be clear here i am completely generalizing this so understand if you want to learn more you'll have to do your own research however experts believe that these two strands are either a stronger strand that ends up causing a lot more harm and a weaker strain this strain will end up becoming something like a seasonal flu or a cold so kova doesn't really ever go away however it does get a lot weaker over time people start building up an immune system to it and they start building a better tolerance against the virus as that happens the virus eventually gets weaker and the stronger strains die out and what you're left with is a weak virus that does very little harm this is the best case scenario for bill ackman he believes that if our world starts to see this then investors can be sure that this virus is starting to go away and if the virus is starting to go away that means our economy and the world can get back to what used to be normal normal territory means that businesses and our economy can boom again and it's going to bring a ton of confidence to wall street that of course is the best case scenario for this new variant however if things don't go according to plan that could send the stock market and our economy back into a full-blown recession basically you would have a situation like you saw last year that put the federal reserve and the federal government in a tough situation our economy works because people spend money and if people start spending a lot less money because they are unemployed or there are regional lockdowns throughout the united states well that means your economy is going to take a hit and the federal reserve has the power to stop this temporarily they can literally print money and then give that money to people so if we see unemployment rates go back up the money printer might get turned back on that may make inflation go back up though in october of 2021 the consumer price index was released and it essentially said that the average price of all things in every industry in the united states went up by around 6.2 percent that is a massive increase and nearly double what we're used to seeing typically inflation goes up by around two to three percent every single year because the federal reserve prints more money every single year and two to three percent inflation is considered healthy by the federal reserve this means that wages are increasing and unemployment is going down because people are getting more jobs a little bit of growth every single year shows that your businesses are also growing and things need to start costing more because demand is up and if demand is up that means people are making money but now we are at 6.2 percent so this is nearly double what we're used to seeing and the problem is inflation is kind of getting out of control according to a lot of experts and they're saying that we may hit a period of stagflation stagflation essentially means that inflation is going up but your economy is not growing it's actually shrinking and this is not because of demand demand is still super high right now on cyber monday in november we had one of the biggest e-commerce sales days ever around 10.7 billion dollars in sales were made on that day alone that is just shy of the all-time record that was set last year so people are willing to buy things but the problem is nobody can buy as much as they want because our supply chain is so stretched right now and if this omnichrome variant gets even worse then that may disrupt our supply chains even more now president joe biden has already said that this omnicron variant is not going to cause full-scale economic lockdowns like we saw in march of 2020.
however there is only so much that the president of the united states can do this variant is spreading throughout the world and we can't stop other countries from closing down their borders for instance china has already started to restrict travel to a lot of places which is going to hurt our supply chain this is happening as of december of 2021.
they have yet to actually confirm a case of this new variant but they are taking no chances now what this means is that things are going to get stretched even more and supply chains are going to get slowed down it's already taking cargo ships and delivery services extra weeks to deliver the same amount of products to you and as most of us know china is one of the biggest producers of u.s goods that we have so slow down in shipments could really damage our supply chain more and the federal reserve and treasury secretary janet yellen have already gone before congress and expressed their concerns about this new variant jerome powell the chairman of the federal reserve said that he is worried about this new variant because it could stunt our labor force even though we may not see full-scale economic lockdowns it could delay people from re-entering the workforce they may want to wait a few extra months and see how things go with this new variant that means the hiring process is going to slow down for companies in addition just because joe biden is not instituting any full-scale economic lockdowns at least at this point that doesn't mean that states or individual cities and regions throughout the united states are going to do the same if the variant proves to be bad news then we may start to see some lockdowns throughout the country which would naturally keep people from the workforce too and it would cause a lot of backups for businesses and lower profits all of that will continue to make inflation go up inflation right now is at 6.2 percent but that could continue to rise in 2022 if this variant is bad which would put the federal reserve in a tough position because right now they are planning on raising interest rates one time in 2022 and pulling most of their economic stimulus from markets and the rest of the economy this is all in an effort for them to get back to their two to three percent inflation goal however they can't do that if our economy is collapsing they'll instead have to reverse a lot of their policies and get back to the money printing i mean during that same meeting with congress jerome powell literally said that we need to retire the phrase transitory the federal reserve and our federal government has been saying that all of this inflation this level of inflation is completely transitory and the only reason it's so high right now is because of all of our supply chain issues however they're starting to hint towards the fact that it's not really transitory anymore this level of inflation may be here to stay depending on what happens so the federal reserve and the treasury secretary are a bit worried about what inflation could be in 2022 however on the flip side bill ackman is not afraid of this new covet variant he believes that this new omnicron variant will send the markets into bullish territory however to be completely honest with you it is way too early to tell either one of those things again we don't really know anything about this variant yet and we probably won't for several weeks as reporting is usually delayed but until we know more you're probably going to continue to see markets kind of flip or flop depending on what happens but we will keep you updated and have our fingers crossed for 2022 but now i want to hear from you on this issue what do you think about bill ackman's thoughts on this new omnichrome variant do you think that it will be no big deal and it will eventually send our markets into bullish territory or do you think it will be a very big deal and will ultimately crash our markets and our economy again whatever your thoughts are leave a comment below before you go but that is it for today's business and financial news breakdown thank you so much for watching if you like this video make sure to hit that subscribe button below keep hustling money minds and i'll see you all in the next one
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