저자: JimRogers · 외국인
요약 보기
트럼프 2기 정책과 내각 인선에 대해 Rogers가 회의적 입장을 보임. 규제 완화 기대는 과거 공약 전례로 의구심, 관세(캐나다·멕시코 25%)는 경제에 해롭다고 비판. 미국 증시는 2009년 이후 최장 상승이라 역사상 하락 전환 가능성 언급하나 시점은 모른다고 함. 북한·이란 개방은 바람직하다고 하나 실현 가능성은 낮게 봄. 캐나다 자원 잠재력 언급, 우크라이나-러시아 긴장 고조 우려. 시점 특정 없는 장기 견해 위주.
다듬은 글
well a few weeks ago we just went through probably one of the most interesting elections in American history and we've talked about it on this channel what's going to happen in the future what are Trump's plans why did this happen for insights on these and more I have the Maverick investor again a frequent guest on our podcast Jim Rogers Jim thank you so much for joining us once again in this virtual table such short notice I am delighted to be here Javier well done and we did have an election Mr Trump won and Mr Trump doesn't know what he's going to do but we will find out he will find out that is for certain and while we we all know that due to the last interviews that he Trump is not our first choice he's now there and it seems like to me that he wants to remove a lot of regulations on the economy do you see an economic boom coming just in general after this election do you see many opportunities for investors coming on the horizon just due to the lack of regulations that might happen in his term well my only problem with that is everybody says that when they are running for office in the US and after they're elected they say they're going to do it Ian very few have done it most of them just talk that's why they're politicians I hope he does things he says some of the things he says if he is going to cut regulations and various things that impede trade and commerce it would be great I've heard it before as my problem we've all heard it before and it's interesting you said that Trump himself doesn't know what he's going to do but from what I hear from his Camp he's learned a lot from the first term and at least he's going to be able to get off to a quicker start but what do you make of Trump's cabinet pits they seem to be all over the map we have people like Marco ruio who's going to choose this Secretary of State very establishment person and then you have people like Tulsi gabbard who seems to be anti-war and anti- the intelligence agencies he wants her to head the intelligence agencies do you think he's purposely putting people of different ideas in there or do you think it's just something that he's putting them together and said and saying let's see what happens I think it's Mr Trump doing what Mr Trump does he his whole approach is lots of approaches lots of ideas I don't I have never seen Mr Trump sit down and give us give anyone a wellth thought out you know planned purpose uh he is all over the block which is fine there's nothing wrong with that but I just I don't see that Mr Trump has ever sat down and written out 10 or 15 principles that he would pursue he pursues whatever comes into his brain which is fine as long as good things come into his brain we would hope so we would hope so and so what do you make of uh the cabinet pick Mr bessent Scott bessent because I had just read that Scott bessent actually worked at the SOS fund with you and you sort of mentored him in a way I know it was a long time ago but do you know him as a person who is very professional in the world of finance and therefore he might do some good things in the treasury Department uh I have not seen Scott in 40 years so you might as well ask me about my first wife or who knows that you might as well ask me about I have no idea what Scott is going to do or I know what I read and I hope some of it's true I hope he's in favor of cutting regulations and all the rest of it but Mr Trump is also in favor of tariffs on everybody in sight so I guess Scott is also in favor of tariffs on on everybody inight you know restraints of trade are usually not good so I don't know what they're going to do I don't know if they know what they're going to do it sounds horrific actually especially from a Libertarian point of view Trump had or the transition team just announced that he's going to put a 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico do you see that as affecting the economy adversely or do you think that the lifting of regulations will sort of be able to smooth that out well if you put that kind of tariffs or taxes on anything it's going to hurt somebody and it's going to hurt even the people who impose those tariffs and those taxes so no I don't see it as being good I mean free trade is pretty clear the more trade the better and the better off everybody is but there are many people who say no no no those people are evil we must raise taxes or tffs on them because they're evil or something they're not competitive whatever they say and I repeat I think history is pretty clear that the more open trade is the better the economy is without a doubt I've heard you say on in shows in the past when I watched you in many interviews you would say when they said how about have a consumption tax instead have an income tax and you said while I don't like taxes let's tax consumption well Trump has sort of a proposal or it's been floated that he said that we would do away with an income tax and just have tariffs instead do you think that might be a positive movement well it might happen doing away with income tax is certainly good doing away as many taxes as you can is good history is pretty clear but if you're going to do just taxes on trade that's not good either I don't know many taxes that are good uh I hope that Mr Trump can come up with some we know that income taxes are not great but I cannot think of any taxes that are great if Mr Trump or Scott has some hooray I don't know them now we see that whenever Republican wins historically markets go up at least for a time what what's your Trump trade so to speak or what trades would you be looking to make or general investment strategy to leverage maybe the next four years of just allaround exuberance perhaps well I I will tell you that the American Stock Market has been going up for the longest in history since 2009 America has never had such a long period of good times though history would indicate it's coming to an end though I I guess what I would suggest people do is learn how to sell short because if it is going to come to an end the way to make money is to sell short and you don't think I'm not suggesting it is going to come to an end but it's been a very long time of Happy Days and you don't think the Trump Administration could postpone that for a little while are you think it'll happen on his watch you say Can Happen of course it could happen will it happen history would indicate it will not and cannot but it' be great if if they can pull off something that's never been done in history that would be great if it were different this time I am all for doing something that's never been done and certainly something that's different this time all right or the contradicts economic law maybe well if they've come up with something new and different Hallelujah now just going very quickly into the geopolitical implications and I've heard you talk about in the past investing in countries like perhaps North Korea or Russia or perhaps maybe even Iran because as we see Trump had like heg Seth and some of these horrific picks for his cabinet who seem to be neocons in proar but if you look at John Bolton Trump had said that he employed Bolton so that he could scare the other count basically and say well he's with us we might as well negotiate with him if this may be his tactic now do you see Trump opening up to Iran opening up again to North Korea countries like Cuba and even Russia and what are the investment implications of that well I will say again that open trade open societies open visitors you know open tourism is good for everybody it doesn't hurt anyone or it hurts very few people so yes I'm all for but I hope Mr Trump will do it if he opens North Korea that would be great you know there's no reason that Korea's a divided nation if he can figure out a way to solve that problem Hallelujah Asia's going to be better Korea is going to be better America's going to be better I don't know if he even thinks like that but if he does it would be good for everybody and likewise the rest of the other countries you mentioned of course I would love to see Iran open oh Iran is has been historically a terribly successful country uh not recently obviously but it's a very big country it has been extremely important country in the past you know Persia was a very very important country in world history I would be wonderful if he can open up that again he would and he would win the Nobel Prize if he can went do some of these things I hope it's possible and it would be a great thing and there would be a lot of trading in investment opportunities well you know Trump thought he was going to win the Nobel Prize for opening Korea but then the American Army said no Mr Trump we're not going to leave you know if Korea if there were peace in Korea American Army's got to leave obviously has no no reason to be there but the American Army said to Mr Trump we're not going to leave and the reason for that is it's the only place that can we can keep troops on the Chinese border and the Russian border so they said we're not going to leave so Mr Trump got angry and said okay and that's when they made it illegal for Americans to go to North Korea anymore I've been to North Korea twice now I cannot go because Mr Trump got angry at the American Army and said okay then nobody can go to North Korea if I can't win the Nobel Prize nobody can go to North Korea so it's a bit of a stale the world would be better off if everything was open but I hope it happens sure and there's been news from Canada recently I remember you said on one of our podcasts that your long dollars because even though the Dollar's bad everything else is worth uh the Canadian dollar has been going down precipitously recently due to their loose money policies do you see any investment implications of that or do what do you see happen and the Canadian economy in the next few years well I would suspect the one thing about Canada Canada has gigantic natural resources if you look at the economy or even study it slightly you will see that they have huge natural resources and they could all get rich if they continueed to exploit the problem is of course it has been hard to exploit them but if they do it oh my gosh they've got everything agriculture Timber Metals oil everything we need so it would be wonderful is it going to happen I don't know I have to ask you we will see on that so generally you still believe that the crash is coming and it's going to come relatively recently relatively recent future I'm not sure I've ever used a term crash I certainly know that every few years every country in the world has economic problems including the United States so I know we're going to have economic problems again it's been the longest in American history without an economic problem so I know problems are coming I have no idea when if you can tell us all when you'll get rich we'll get rich but I know they're coming I just don't know when ice cream oh you're what I said you're having ice cream huh I hope so I hope so now just finally what do you make of the new uh tensions here or rather the uh increased tensions between Ukraine and Russia due to Biden in the final days of his term approving these missiles to be sent to the Ukraine I'm sure you've heard about this of course and then Russia sent something resembling an ICBM to Ukraine for the first time in history where do you see this going well wouldn't you if somebody started sending guns of missiles bullets to your friend your enemies or even your friends you would get worried and so I'm sure that the Russians and everybody in that part of the world is taking note and if all of a sudden your even your friend has a lot of new guns and new bullets you're going to be worried and of course it's causing animosity it's causing tension in that part of the world are we right I don't know if we're right or wrong I just know what's going to happen and it's going to make things worse not better let's hope for our all of our sfe that it calms down and one last question we talked about RFK Jr in our last podcast of course he did not win but he is the pick for the Department of Health and Human Services do you think this is a good thing and do you think he will be able to stand against big Pharma and what would your bets be on that because immediately when it announced that he was going to be Secretary of health of course fizer and modna both plummeted wow I I don't know enough about Mr Kennedy at all I do know he has lots of new ideas new ideas are usually good because it Stires new thinking causes new thinking but I just do not know enough about it I do approve of new ideas I do approve of somebody coming and stirring up all of our thinking and making things different even if it's bad it might be bad only for a short time and then they will turn into good things but I don't know enough about the man to say that's the LA trade well Jim thanks so much for coming on I just wanted to get your opinion on some of these topics and I hope you have a great Thanksgiving and Christmas over there who me too same to you and same to all of everybody who listens to you hooray well thanks happy happy turkey happy turkey much appreciation it's always great to talk to you great let's do it again sometime yes sir bye bye bye
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