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well holy smokes The Q's just broke their downtrend on the day the downtrend was pretty nasty we were watching it the stock market open live stream the free one over at the meet Kevin live Channel and boy oh boy things are rallying why well the only thing that came in right around this time was at 8:00 right there right there the bottom basically all we got were the New York oneyear inflation expectations which actually came in slightly higher than the previous or or than the pre the the current survey survey was 3.01 it came in at 3.02 which is a little higher why then are the Q skyrocketing right now well it's because the inflation expectations are down from the 3.17% in the prior and we got to start considering some of the other seeds that are being planted right now first of all Nick T over at the Wall Street Journal he had a fantastic post on some things to pay attention to regarding the fed and where we're going potentially with Fed rate Cuts right now we're looking at the smallest gain in average hourly earnings since 2021 nothing alarming enough to force rate Cuts in July but eventually further weakening in the labor market won't be desirable and if we get a soft CPI and PPI report this week Thursday Friday we might end up being in talks for September cut so Nick T is starting to do the Nikki leaks part of his job job which is starting to leak kind of what the Federal Reserve wants markets to think and basically the Federal Reserve is starting to Prime us to say look if we get a weak inflation read on Thursday and Friday we're going to start cutting and the Market's probably going to pump it up on that News until we actually start having to price in a recession which at this point isn't too exciting or nobody wants to talk about that right now that that doesn't mean the market isn't due for a correction but the point is it's really hard to bet against a rally while the rally is going you kind of have to keep betting with the rally the trend is your friend and then when it you turns be quick to adapt this is what we're doing in the stocks and psych group for example the alerts that I sent out today I threw money into Tesla calls those are up 45k at the time of this reading here nface call up 23k and that was like a 60k investment so that's up 35% paler calls are up 23% 20 $1,000 uh I've got two AMD calls one of them's down one of them's up uh so AMD is getting a little stuck in the mud but all of these by the way I think have have some real momentum ahead of them uh if we can get positivity about rate cuts and inflation continuing this week which I think that's why right at 8:00 a.m.
this morning when those New York fed inflation numbers came in roughly as expected the market was like license to Rally baby let's go because the market is often fearful about oh no what if we get a bad report report jpow speaks tomorrow morning uh but jpow is probably just going to reference you know the importance of the CPI and PPI numbers coming up so jpow talking in the house tomorrow will cover it to see if there's anything special I'm not expecting anything other than what we saw from Sarah Eisen last week then of course we have uh J pal speaking in the Senate the next day which will basically just be a mirr image of what we had uh or have tomorrow so I'm not too worried about that instead I'm going to be looking at CPI which is Thursday morning we're expecting C CPI month over month to come in at just 0.1% it is a little up from the prior 00 and core CPI expected to come in at 0.2 uh some like Morgan Stanley think that'll come in at 0.27 year-over-year CPI coming down to 31 is the expectation core year-over-year 34 PPI looking at the month over Monon 0.1 core month over month looking at0 2 on both the core with trade and without trade so uh and then of course you've got University of Michigan sentiment reads uh which will come out on Friday so overall all of these are things that could really promote an excited Market personally uh you know I and I'll talk specific trades here for a moment but I do want to give some Credence to the potential risks that we're facing in the economy so we're going to go ahead and pull those up from ehack uh.com but uh some of the things that uh I'm paying attention to uh at least in trading uh is I'm I'm specifically watching the uptrend on uh paler there's substantial uptrend momentum on paler I'm watching the uh breakout above 165 on AMD that's a really big deal since AMD is one of the biggest laggards in the AI race the fact that it's breaking out above 165 and it's only done that so far for one full day on the candlesticks is a good technical indicator you've got the momentum at palent here which is great the social sentiment massive uh n phase you just had an upgrade on sedge which is probably uh why n phase is moving up as much as it is today and honestly it's probably just going to keep going I mean no I can't guarantee anything obviously I don't have a crystal ball ultimately you have to make your own decisions but what I think is interesting about end phase is we just had a local bottom at 95 and then you got this industry upgrade I think you're potentially setting up for a Tesla moment at end phase so I'm starting to get really excited again over at end phase uh before it actually starts going euphoric here and uh and Tesla is about to test the 258 level once we break 258 okay uh personally I think most of the order book at 250 has already been cleared we in fact we came back down we tested 250 we bounced off 250 how much more of an invitation do you want on Tesla okay the 250 order book I think is the big sell order book 258 is technically the FIB level but I don't actu here it would make sense if we have some because it is a fib level but guess what happens after 250 folks 295 and Tesla in my opinion doesn't get euphoric until we hit 331 so between now and Robo taxi day let's just say I have a I got some calls on some of these okay and remember if you want to see exactly when I'm entering and exiting trades no guarantees we can make money but I sent all my alerts to those of you in the stocks and psych group link down below next price increase is Friday we actually extended the July 4th uh through this week just because we have CPI PPI there's a lot a lot of people are a little uncertain so they're kind of waiting to see what happens with data so far data seems to be good doing well but there are some risk factors look at this you've got uni credit that says look we we've got to seriously start worrying about the cooling in the labor market because we have just late cycle jobs that we're creating healthc care and government jobs are late cycle a cyclical jobs in other words when the economy goes down and starts faltering these are sectors that might still be adding and that's dangerous because they give you this false read of how strong the economy truly is because if you remove those you might be closer to uh you know a 50,000 job gain rather than a 200,000 job gain right 75% is being contributed by government and education and that would be a substantially weak labor report which the Federal Reserve would likely respond to with more rapid Cuts now uni credit thinks we really need to start thinking about rate Cuts very very quickly especially since and I was kind of combining this in here construction is another sector that's that's showing growth but it's really lagging in my opinion because housing starts are trending down but you know you still got to complete the prior starts so it kind of takes time for you to see construction lag down I personally mention that I'm still at a 6.7 on the bull bear scale mostly because you know a lot of people are saying to me they're like look Kevin you know unit credits begging for rate Cuts even though they're worried about it coming across as political it seems like the economy keeps going up Kevin why aren't you maybe more allocated uh in your personal portfolio to going Allin going margin why aren't you going nuts right now and trying to milk everything I'm a big fan of trading in this environment but what what I am 100% not willing to do is end up in a recession and then eliminate my personal ability to float all of the startups that we have so we've got you know not only obviously like the YouTube business which is a very high margin business it's low expense so I'm not so worried about that but you know we've got house Haack and we've got suck a broker dealer these are and both of them sort of contribute to each other suck probably benefits house hack more but these are very very uh uh you know relative to the YouTube business cost heavy businesses and if we go into a recession I will not be one of those people who ends up having my companies fail just because there's a recession so it's one of the reasons I'm putting a lid on my enthusiasm and saying look I I'm willing to be cautiously optimistic but I'm also not going to be caught with my pants down in a recession uh so that's that's very very important so everybody this is why I always say while we talk Finance on this channel it's always very very important that you analyze finances from a personal point of view the fomo the fear of missing out should not be a reason to put yourself into a substantial risk category that ends up uh causing you substantial pain if we go we do go into a sudden recession because we we have to be real yes the S rule is getting closer to indicating a recession coming but you know thing about the S rule is it it it the S rule basically Compares back to the moving average of last year so it says hey once the unemployment rate goes up you know a certain percentage above the 12-month moving average of last year uh then we go into a recession and we're getting close to triggering that like let's say the top of this camera frame here is where the trigger is we're probably right here right now but the problem is it's not necessarily a problem it's a feature the S Ru is designed to measure volatility and joblessness so when a lot of people lose their jobs quickly the S rule triggers it's like oh this has got to be a recession but what happens is if it SL if the unemployment rate let's say stays stable at 4.1 for the next two months thanks to immigration legal or whatever doesn't matter illegal um both get counted right then the 12-month moving average of the unemployment rate will actually move up and then the difference between the two will narrow and the Su rule will actually come back down so it hasn't fired yet and it's possible it won't fire at all uh and and this is the the frustrating thing is data is just so messy right now there's there no shortages of you know Peter shiff saying Oh but you know you six unemployment's over 7% yeah dude it's been over 7% for like a year uh and I love Peter shift don't get me wrong I'm just saying like there there are no shortages of being able to find bad data right now I mean look at isms okay ISM Services I put this over here uh these red arrows are all recession indicators every time ISM Services fall under 50 you get a recession oh but wait a minute what happened in December of 2022 it triggered under 50 oh my gosh we're still not in a recession now we're under 50 again is this time different or is this time just delayed I personally lean towards this time is just delayed I think the market has a lot of euphoria between now and pain uh yeah don't don't get me wrong I do think there could be pain coming towards the beginning of 2025 but for right now the economy continues to chug along uh and the stock market is just going to keep pumping probably because of that so I that's why I think this is a very difficult Market to put down in other words by puts on uh and it's a much easier Market to just have calls on so we'll see uh then uh take a look at this how worried should we be macro surprises turn negative across a major economies so basically this is a way of saying that economists are are sort of getting surprised by bad data and uh and they're not expecting it which makes people it basically is a sign that people think the economy is stronger than it is which is not great let's be clear about that it's not great uh Academy Securities is worried that if we begin to cut in September it'll seem too political but you know what are you going to do French elections obvious VI ly didn't give us a lot of clarity in what's going to happen in France but that also is what it is it's one of those you know what are you going to do situations but um folks um this is uh This Is My overall take here I'm uh I how should I summarize this uh I think the best way to summarize it is frankly I think the market is going to continue to go through a period of euphoria and and Topping uh until we actually start getting some black swans obviously when we start getting some some really negative data uh you're going to want to be quick you know and this is going to be hard like you're going to want to be able to transition your portfolio very very quickly uh and and I I don't know how quickly people are going to be able to transition uh and I'm not saying that you know you need to run for the covers uh you know run for shelter now and hi you know quick uh hide your kids hide your wife you know everything's going to poops um we're not there yet but it would make makes sense that we're getting closer to topping out especially as we're starting to get some GDP data coming in a little softer you know I always like to jump on over to the uh Atlanta fed uh real GDP measures and uh when you look at these they're definitely falling you know real GDP is coming down right now it's being estimated at just 1.5% which you think would lead the Federal Reserve to want to cut but not really because if you go to the fomc's last summary of economic projections you know their Dot Plot they tell you that they actually expect GDP for this year uh right where is it there it is GDP uh for this year to sit at 21 and that's roughly what we've been averaging question is is 14 going to be something that's going to trigger them to cut and that I think will take much more than just one month of weakness in the Atlanta fed uh GDP rids hence for me I think we're probably lining up for a September cut which yes will appear political versus a July cut I can tell you though what the market is pricing in let's go ahead and take a look at market pricing because we generally like looking at that market pricing right now is looking at a September 81% chance of a cut pricing in 1.25 cuts for November and pricing in a full two cuts for November with 2 and A2 Cuts priced in for the end of January so anyway uh make sure to check out a bundle coupon inquiries thank you so much for continuing to watch subscribe really appreciate it not adverti d
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