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Yes friends, now we have a latest news coming in about Michael Burry, if you know him, basically most of the people would know him, still let me tell you that in 2008 when the stock markets fell in the US, when the housing bubble was created, then he is the person who had predicted it in advance and had created huge short positions in the US market and had earned a lot of money in that fall, so the news that is coming in about Michael Burry again is basically that he has created huge short positions in the US market and somewhere he runs a hatch fund, whatever portfolio he has, there he is basically a hatch fund manager, so he has sold his entire portfolio and has come into cash and at the same time has also shorted the market somewhere.
There's also some talk of Nvidia that they've built up some pretty large short positions on Nvidia. So now if you look at the US market, basically in the last one month or one and a half months since Trump took over, there was basically Liberation Day on April 3, when tariffs were imposed on all the countries of the world, then somewhere or the other a huge fall was seen in the markets.
Almost if you talk about the index, we saw a fall of 15 to 20%. But today, when I am making the video, exactly after 1 month, if you see, all the indices have almost recovered all their losses, the 15-20% fall that had occurred in the last one month. 70 to 80% have recovered and some are yet to recover.
So will there be another fall from here as Michael Burry is predicting or will it now set a new oil all-time high? I will also give you my point of view and if it happens that the fall continues again in the US market, will the Indian markets also follow it and how can the Indian markets behave, how are the charts made, I am going to share a little bit of that with all of you.
Apart from this, the one major indicator which supports this thing a little bit, you will see that basically if you look at the US Treasury yields, the 10 year Treasury yield or the 30 year US yield is still at 4 1/2 5%. That means, if you look at the 30 year bond, its yield is still working around 5/5%.
Same, if you look at the 10 year period, it is working at 4% also. Which is still not coming down. Meaning, now a lot of good news has come regarding the tariff. And Trump has also said it two-three times. A meeting has also been held with China. But somewhere bond yields are not coming down. Which is giving a negative signal.
Now when the rally is going on, when the stock market is going up, then many people ignore these things. But this is something which is a fact and you should definitely keep it in mind that what is happening is that the yields are not coming down. Secondly, now let me take you to the chart once. Here I will see a little chart of the US market as well as the chart of the Indian market and I will share with you some similarities between the two which are almost the same in India and the US.
If that happens then can we continue it, I will share that with you also. So here I am on the chart of Dub Dub Joss. If you see, this is basically the main index of the US market and on top of this I have applied a Fibonacci retracement and if you see here, then before this fall, its high was around 45,000 and after this Liberation Day, our bottom was around 36,000.
So if you see almost, we saw a fall of 10,000 points. So there was a correction of 20-22%. But after that, this rally has come and if you see this rally, then 78%, the way retracements basically happen in Fibonacci, 38% 50% 61% 78%, its last level is somewhere or the other. So if you look at this basically, the market which is working here today, right now when the US is on dub joss, when the dons is currently at 42637, when I am making the video, then you will see that basically the 78% retracement is basically 43 to 54, from here it is 700800 points and above.
So the market might come to this and often when there's a trend, if I show it to you on a slightly larger chart. If this is a trend, I have opened its weekly chart today that if this is a downfall trend and this is a bounce, then it can definitely come up to 78%. Now in the same case I talk about Nifty.
If you see the same thing in Nifty, I have now applied retracement here on the weekly chart of Nifty. We had fallen from 26,290 and our low was 21755 and from here we have bounced and you will see that our 78% retracement is coming to 25317, so if we reach 25317 then basically we will retrace the entire fall somewhere by 80-78% and it is possible that after that we may start a new downward trend.
Aa, you saw that the same is happening in the US market and if you see here also, our closing today in Nifty is above 251 in 2019 when I am making the video and if you see then basically from here another move of 100-200 points is happening upwards, so which can be a major hurdle, so both these things are pointing towards this somewhere because the fall has not yet completely happened i.e.
retraced back. Right now it is around 78% and we have seen this many times in history that it does not retrace up to 78% in normal cases but as an exception, it retraces up to this much in rallies that happen in BA markets, meaning it does retrace up to this much. It does not mean that it cannot retrace.
So according to me, now is the time to be a little cautious. Just thinking everything is bullish is a good thing. But if you are creating a portfolio or making any allocation in it, then definitely keep this thing in mind and take this point of view into consideration. How did you like the I Hope video?
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