저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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피터 쉬프는 트럼프 행정부 경제 성과가 과장됐으며 대형 경제위기가 임박했다고 주장한다. 2008년 금융위기보다 더 심각할 수 있고, 그 책임은 트럼프가 지게 된다는 견해다. 주가 버블과 연준의 과잉 유동성을 핵심 리스크로 지목한다. 그린스펀·버냉키 시기부터 누적된 버블을 트럼프가 물려받았고, 터질 때 비난은 트럼프가 받는다고 본다. 고용·임금·무역 지표를 반박한다. 2018년 들어 고용증가율이 2010년 이후 가장 느리고, 임금 상승은 노동시간 감소로 상쇄되며 물가 반영 시 실질임금은 하락한다고 주장한다. 무역적자는 첫해 12% 확대됐다고 한다. 성장률 주장도 부정한다. 4분기 GDP 2.6%는 하향 수정될 가능성이 크고, 연간 성장률 2.3%도 낮아져 오바마 2기 평균보다 낮을 것이라 본다. 감세는 정부지출 축소 없이 부채와 인플레이션으로 재원을 마련하므로 결국 더 비싼 비용을 치르는 '신용카드' 방식이라고 비판한다. 이 과정에서 스태그플레이션 국면이 나타난다고 본다. 정치적으로는 2020년 민주당이 '고통지수(misery index)'를 내세워 트럼프와 공화당을 공격할 것이고, 이후 버니 샌더스 같은 사회주의 성향 후보가 집권해 감세를 되돌릴 것이라고 전망한다. 증시 방향, 환율, 금리, 개별 종목에 대한 구체적 가격 전망이나 매수·매도 권고는 없다.
다듬은 글
he owns everything he owns the bubble economy he owns the bubble in the stock market because according to trump everything is now great all the all the problems that he criticizes a candidate somehow they're all gone everything is great all of a sudden the unemployment numbers are legitimate they were fake when he was running for office now all of a sudden we're supposed to believe them just because he's the president right so but we are headed for a major economic crisis it will make the 2008 financial crisis look like a Sunday school picnic this similarity will be capitalism will get the blame just like it did last time Bush got the blame because he was in the White House it was it was Greenspan that really created the problem much more so than Bush just like Bernanke and yellow and have inflated the bubble that Trump and inherited but he is going to get the blame when it pops right all the people had voted for him that were so enthusiastic because he promised everything remember you know you always want to under promise and over deliver Trump has over promised and he's going to deliver nothing he's gonna deliver pain and misery to so many people who voted for him remember the misery index that we had during Jimmy Carter that's what's gonna come back I think that the Democrats are going to use the misery index against Trump and the Republicans in 2020 and that's going to pave the way for real socialists like Bernie Sanders or maybe somebody to left to him to win right and that means all those temporary tax cuts or all those permanent tax cuts are temporary because they're all going to end in 2021 when the Democrats have both houses of Congress and the White House right they're gonna jack taxes up I mean he is so caught up in this bubble now in the stock market he's you know he's branded it might as well the stock market has a big T on it for Trump like one of his one of his buildings and the economy and so when it comes crashing down I mean to me it's just like you know his casinos in Atlantic City but you can't cut taxes and not cut government spending because taxes pay for government inflation and so if you're just going to cut people's taxes but say we're not going to eliminate any government in fact under the Trump administration the government is getting bigger so they're increasing the size of government and the amount of government spending and they're reducing the taxes so how is that government going to be paid for it has to be paid for so the government is going to pay for it by creating debt and by creating inflation and the truth is that paying for government with debt and inflation is more expensive than current taxation so all the people who are getting a tax cut are really getting a bill right we're just putting this government on a credit card and when you put things on a credit card you don't get it for free it's actually more expensive because now you have to make the interest payments so this is not something for nothing this is a bad deal that voters are getting they just don't understand how bad it is and Trump is taking credit for it and it is not good yeah I like lower taxes but only if we have smaller government so that means if you shrink government you can relieve the taxpayers of the burden of paying for it but you can't have all the government and then just cut the taxes that's the Republicans version of a free lunch right and there is no free lunch then Trump sends out a tweet early this morning and he's like oh this is great fantastic we've got more money to for our military like like our military didn't have enough money like we were really in danger like somebody was about to attack us because we're not spending enough money on our military you know we don't have enough money on our military hey bring our troops out of Afghanistan that'll save us some money there are a lot of things that we could do to save money in the defense budget if we need money for other parts of the defense budget but you know Donald Trump he campaigned to drain the swamp well now the swamp is deeper than ever right he just allowed more water to be poured into that swamp because the swamp is the size of government right government is the swamp draining a swamp means shrinking government and now the swamp is deeper than ever because these deficits that have now just been allowed are massive first of all the myth of the economic you know expansion under Trump has been highly exaggerated I mean first of all since Trump's been president we've had the slowest job growth since 2010 so the jobs are not roaring back wages are not exploding yes you did have that 2.9 percent jump in year over your rage wages but but hours worked went down so people earned a little bit more money but they didn't work as many hours so real incomes up 2.6 but it's not real because it hasn't been adjusted for inflation and I think prices rose by than that so I think real wages are actually falling they're not rising what is rising is a trade deficit the trade deficit expanded by 12% in the first year of Trump you know he ran as a candidate saying that we were losing on trade deficits you know well now we're losing big league you know we're losing even more wealth while he's president so there is no job growth the trade deficit is getting bigger the GDP you know the trade deficit was so big that they're gonna have to downwardly revised the fourth quarter GDP which was only 2.6 who knows where it's gonna go but by the time they revise the entire year which I think was 2.3 I think they're gonna revise it lower and it's gonna turn out that the first year under Trump the economy grew by lower than the average of the four years of Obama's second term so growth hasn't even picked up it's actually slower so this is all nonsense the economy is not improving nothing all that nothing is happening except we're going deeper into debt and this is a huge problem and yes we have some tax cuts and we borrow the money to pay for them so we're putting all this government on a credit card but that is a more expensive way to pay for it because we got to pay the interest and of course we end up with more inflation because the Fed ends up monetizing it and that is what's going on you're getting returns of stagflation
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