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this year Charlie Munger had a lot to say at meetings and in interviews about his outlook for the economy inflation currencies and geopolitical risks today we will talk about Charlie Munger predicting economic crisis Charlie Munger background Charles Thomas Munger who was born in the United States on January 1st 1924 is a businessman investor and former real estate attorney he has a net worth of 1 billion dollars Warren Buffett who controls the conglomerate known as Berkshire Hathaway has referred to Charlie Munger as his closest partner in right hand man he currently holds the position of Vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway between the years of 1984 and 2011 Munger was the chairman of the board at Westco Financial Corporation in addition to that he serves as chairman of the board for the Daily Journal corporation which is headquartered in Los Angeles California and he is a director of Costco Wholesale Corporation economic crisis prediction the recent turmoil that has been hitting the financial markets in the United States comes at the same time that the Federal Reserve is beginning to unwind its multi-trillion dollar asset purchase program which has been in place almost continuously since the financial crisis the program has been subjected to widespread criticism from a variety of individuals many of whom have accused the Federal Reserve of printing an excessive amount of money in Too Short a period of time and of disrupting financial markets all over the world with exceptionally low interest rates in the past when policy makers have tried to ease difficult Financial situations by printing more money the result has been dramatic price increases up until the latter part of the Year 2021 it appeared as though things would be different this time but after that everything started to change the cost of goods and services started to significantly increase and the trend did not appear to be temporary companies have realized that they are able to pass on higher costs to Consumers who are more than happy to pay the additional cost which has made it more difficult for companies to increase prices this indicates that there is a decreased likelihood that prices will return to the normal levels in the long run what will occur as a result of the Federal Reserve beginning to tighten monetary policy is something that Only Time Will Reveal higher interest rates are already having an effect on the housing market which we can clearly see now the interest rate on a 30-year mortgage has risen to more than six percent and businesses in the real estate industry have started laying off workers in preparation for a decrease in customer demand private company valuations have also begun to decline as investors reconsider their growth prospects and other opportunities the upcoming storm in spite of the fact that it is very simple for me to say that shareholders ought to have seen this coming with the benefit of hindsight it is something that they ought to have been preparing for all along Charlie Munger speaking at the annual meeting of Berkshire Hathaway this year warned of the impending storm the United States have been engaging in some fairly extreme behavior and while we do not yet have a complete understanding of the magnitude of the challenges that this will present if circumstances will be comparable to those in Japan or if we'll be subjected to something significantly worse I think that we are all aware that we are playing with fire and that there is a possibility that we could get into some significant trouble as a result of our actions over the course of the preceding 10 years a significant number of additional warnings that are analogous to the one being discussed here have been issued because Munger is so widely read any comments he makes on these subjects are always noteworthy this is the case regardless of the topic the time that is available to the billionaire investor is completely consumed by the activity of reading and analyzing material on a wide range of topics in a manner that is very similar to that of Ray dalio the founder of Bridgewater who has used history to construct various models of how present-day economic situations might play out Munger understands enough about the past to see how historical economic developments might have some relevance to present day in this way munger's understanding of the past is very similar to that of Ray dalio currency going to zero if you look at the Roman Republic you'll see that they maintained a steady rate of inflation for hundreds of years with their currency in the end the Roman Empire as a whole was brought to its knees therefore inflation represents the most significant threat to our society over the long term second only to the possibility of nuclear war Charlie Munger said I believe that a reasonable assumption for an investor to make is that the value of the currency will reach zero sometime within the next hundred years that is the hypothesis I am currently working with according to monger's projections the value of the United States dollar will almost certainly be worthless by the turn of the next Century this is not as ridiculous as it may appear to be at first glance the value of one United States dollar has decreased by more than 96 percent in the time since the Federal Reserve was established in addition the United States Dollar's value has dropped by 86 percent just since 1971 which is the year that the United States stopped using the gold standard as its currency benchmark his prediction is very close to being a sure thing because it is based on the patterns of dwindling purchasing power that have been observed in the past this should serve as a wake-up call regarding the long-term threat that inflation poses to savings accounts that are not invested in assets a sizable portion of his cautions are directed toward inflation and the political unrest that it inevitably brings about there are a lot of things to take into consideration an all-weather strategy unlike dalio Monger is not a traitor he does not make any attempts to time the market nor does he buy a variety of Investments that are suitable for the many different conditions the market may be in one of his greatest strengths is that he is able to recognize high quality businesses that are selling their products or services at reasonable prices and he does not deviate from the strategy on the other hand in contrast to other people who invest he has had an advantage because he is aware of the potential disasters that could take place in the not too distant future because there is always going to be the possibility of a market decline or if problems with the macro economy investors need to select their assets with this possibility in mind in order to protect themselves from Financial loss because we do not typically receive any advanced warning when the next Market downturn is about to occur it is that the utmost importance to look for companies and assets that will be able to remain stable despite the ups and downs of the market cycle some investors may decide to include gold or inflation leaked Bonds in their portfolios as a means of providing protection against uncertainty and macro level volatility it's possible that investing in commodity stocks will make some people feel more at ease every investor has access to a wide range of distinct strategies and seeing as how we each have a say in the matter we should pick the approach that we have the utmost faith in even though we each have options monger's strategy has always been to buy companies that he is confident in owning and then to remain committed to those companies regardless of the circumstances this has been the case throughout monger's entire career he will only purchase a stock if he is convinced that it is going to be a profitable investment in the very long term over a number of decades that it possesses the characteristics that are necessary for it to be successful throughout the entirety of each and every Market cycle although we are not required to follow the strategy it may be prudent to learn from Monger that the best way to avoid being taken advantage of by the market is to invest for all environments all the time what do you think of our video let me know in the comment be sure to hit that subscribe button before you go thanks for watching
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