저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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결론: 지정학적 재편과 금융 불안이 커지며 향후 몇 년간 시장 변동성이 클 것이며, 달러는 단기적으로 안전자산 수요로 강세가 예상된다는 견해. 지정학: 미국의 TPP 탈퇴와 러시아 제재로 중국·러시아·이란의 결속이 강화되고 유라시아 재편이 진행 중이라고 진단. 독일도 중국·러시아와 교역을 늘리는 방향으로 움직일 수 있으며, 이는 NATO 재편 가능성을 시사. 역사적으로 이런 변화는 큰 전쟁으로 이어진 사례가 있어 우려된다고 언급. 농업: 과거 러시아 농업 투자를 강조해 시장이 두 배로 오르는 성과를 냈고, 향후 2~3년 내 나쁜 시기가 있을 수 있으나 농업은 낙관적. 러시아 비료 회사 임원직을 맡고 있다고 밝힘. 경제 구조: 미국 의료비가 GDP의 16~17%이나 기대수명은 낮아 비효율적이라고 비판. 교육비도 급등했다고 지적하며 물가 통계가 축소 표기됐을 가능성을 제기. 달러: 시장 불안이 오면 안전자산 선호로 달러가 더 오를 것으로 보고 달러를 보유 중. 달러가 과열돼 버블이 되면 매도 후 다른 자산으로 전환할 계획. 비트코인: 과거 5달러일 때 매수하지 못한 것을 아쉬워하며, 현재는 비트코인 투자자라는 취지의 발언. 중국 일대일로: 철도·인프라 투자로 지리적 변화가 일어나며 큰 부를 얻는 사람과 사라지는 사람이 나올 것이라 전망. 중국 철도 기업을 보유 중이라고 언급. 경기 사이클: 미국 경제는 4~8년마다 위기를 겪어왔고 2008년 이후 8년 넘게 조정이 없어 다음 위기는 더 클 것이라 경고. 연준이 자산을 매입하는 것은 중앙은행의 역할을 벗어난 것이라 비판. 미국 상황: 워싱턴의 정책 혼란과 중동 개입 등을 비판하며, 향후 몇 년간 심각한 세계적 문제가 있을 수 있다고 경고.
다듬은 글
welcome back to the Kaiser report I'm Max Keiser time now to turn to Jim Rogers of Rogers Holdings a man who needs little introduction Jim welcome I'm delighted to be here max it's been a while yeah exactly so Jim you've made your reputation really going back a few years as an international investor I remember back in the early days of the Barron's round table you always came in with these great ideas from countries around the world and this is really where you've looked at the book investment by Kerr actually traveling around the world and looking for value so I wanted to talk to you about what's happening in the geopolitical front the world's seen a headline from Bloomberg News around the time of the g20 read that China and Germany step up as US retires from world leadership that's the headline your thoughts about this is the u.s.
receding and China is sending and is there a relationship between China and Germany that is emerging gentlemen well first John trumpets first day withdrew from TPP trans-pacific partnership which immediately threw the Pacific Ocean area into China's hands when America basically left everybody had to turn to China and China of course turned to them so yes we're seeing that America is pulling out of the Pacific in some ways at the same time America put sanctions on Russia for a variety of reasons so that's pushed the Chinese and the Russians together so many people are getting very involved with inter Persians the Iranian czar also being forced into the arms of the Chinese by by America so you have just about everybody on the Eurasian continent turning towards the Asian that towards the China right now and yes everybody is the with the u.s.
is withdrawing or they're withdrawing from us or both get your thoughts on this that it seemed as though Germany is being pushed into the arms of Russia and can you speak on this a little bit no of course they got a trade with somebody and the Russians are right there the Russians have a lot of naturist and China the Chinese and the Germans of the Germany's the second or third largest trading country in the world so it's natural that they're looking for new partners and the Russians are right there the Russians need the Germans the Chinese need the Germans the Germans need them but that's an incredible rebalancing of NATO potentially if you need seen I'm driving out there no max you go back and look at any period of history and you see that when these things start changing it's snowballs and a lot of things happens I don't want to get to a word here but before the First World War all sorts of changes started taking place which were revolutionary at the time we weren't so revolutionary had a big war as a result and we're seeing a lot of changes like that take place again let's hope it's not a war a few years ago you got a lot of press you were telling hedge fund managers to trade in their Lamborghinis for tractors and that agriculture would be a huge play certainly in Russia that's been correct you went very long Russia a few years ago that markets doubled that's been a huge winner and that's where the agriculture at play is really blossoming is that still on the table is that still happening big-time big-time of one of the best and I expect bad times to happen in the next few years two or three year we're gonna get to that but agriculture I'm optimistic about agriculture no matter what happens in the world for a variety of reasons but especially in Russia we put sanctions on the Russians so they had to buy their food from themselves they couldn't sell to other people so all this food in Russia is now booming I mean agriculture as a hue it's had a huge boom in Russia which is getting better but I'm a director of a Russian AG fertilizer company it's wonderful for them yeah I look at the Russian economy and of course when critics of Russia say that it's a gas station posing as a country I mean Russia the energy sector is something 9% of GDP then my numbers could be wrong you can correct me but if you look at the US if you look at their health care industry which is 16 to 17 percent of GDP I see you nodding your thoughts well I I've cringed because yeah we're health care in America 16 percent of net gross national product we don't have the life expectancy in the top 25 in the world we're spending far far and away more on health care than anybody else in the world and we're not getting anything for it that's why I was cringing it's all going to lawyers and bureaucrats and who knows what a lot of people yeah we are playing full boat I'm not on Medicaid you know and I'm playing the full Obamacare rate and it's quite steep and getting hired up 24 percent a year they say there's no inflation Jim but how is it possible if these are prices are up 24 percent of the year well not just healthcare entertain my education if you tried to go to college these days oh my goodness you can't believe how much college cost now why are those numbers so misstated is it because the feds trying to keep interest rates low to keep their bonds rolling on those insolvent banks max you believe government's what's happened to you you believe you get your investment advice from the government oh god what has happened you've become deranged you mentioned it's kind of tough times ahead for markets and I guess the US and you know we've talked many times with the dollar and the fate of the dollar it's it looks like a great short but it has been resilient are we now on the cusp you do you think of more of a dollar weakness and kind of this new world order emerging and market turmoil well I expect market turmoil in the next couple of years but one result of market turmoil is the dollar is going to go higher because people are going to look for a safe haven now they think the US dollars a safe haven for historic reasons and because there's not much else these days so I own a lot of US dollars expecting the turmoil to drive the dollar higher I hope what I plan is when the dollar gets overpriced it may turn into a bubble depending on how bad the turmoil is and people flee to go somewhere my plan is to sell it and buy something else you see how easy it is to get rich thirty years you're responsible for my first million I think back I didn't get any of it no I tried to buy it gay to buy Bitcoin when it was five dollars if you recall Jim yes yes yes I I wish I was smart enough to about bid I was trying to return the favor I wish I'd been or dumb enough to buy Bitcoin it wouldn't have mattered it's gone up a great deal well let's let's let's talk about China for a second of course you live in Singapore you're in Asia your your daughter is an award-winning prize-winning accomplished speaker in Mandarin it's fantastic congratulations on that your thoughts on this Chinese one belt one road policy that seems like they're investing in infrastructure while in America and in the New York the train system is falling apart there's no investment there your thoughts you fly into JFK Airport in New York you're a media in a third world Airport and you get in a third world taxi and you ride on a third world highway to a third world five-star hotel it's not often that geography changes max when the Spanish and Portuguese started sailing around the world geography changed the railroad 200 years ago changed geography well the Chinese are now changing geography this is an unbelievably important and exciting thing some people are gonna make vast fortunes some are gonna disappear okay the one belt one Road it's this huge infrastructure play you are the macro guy what do you when you drill down and you think okay I want to be I want to be a part of this I want my money working here how do you approach that what do you look at give people a look inside into your process well I own some obviously people who build railroads and have trains are going to do well because it's all most of its going to be on the railroad that's one way to play I own some Chinese railway companies but you look at a map it's gonna go through Kazakhstan but something's going to change in Kazakhstan all the places where the trains are gonna go are gonna change dramatically you've heard of Denver Colorado Denver wouldn't exist if geography hadn't changed and they hadn't put in the railroad that's gonna happen throughout Eurasia and it's gonna have gigantic changes we're in Las Vegas I was fascinated to learn that Las Vegas grew up in part because of the atomic bomb testing oh that took place nearby and you come to Vegas you can watch the mushroom clouds it was part of the entertainment oh really go I didn't know alright so moving right along so you have been vocal recently that you are looking for some market turbulence and some what do you max it every four to eight years through since the beginning of the Republic we've had problems in the US economy it always has happened I don't know why doesn't matter it always happens and it always will now Janet Yellen the head of the Federal Reserve in America says it's not going to happen anymore everything is solved now well if you take your advice from her you will think I'm wrong but my view is it's been over eight years since we had our last turmoil in America it's coming again there are many reasons it's coming again and then next time is gonna be worse than anything in my lifetime because in 2008 we had a problem because of too much debt max since 2008 the debt has gone through the roof all over the world so the next time we have a problem and we're going to have one unless you believe Janet Yellen it's gonna be very very bad it's supposed to be the lender of last resort not to buy our first order right they buy stuff they buy stuff and they have said that they can buy anything that can buy gold mines and buy stocks they can do whatever they want by liquor stores who knows what they'll do to save us but that's a repudiation of their mandate in the strongest sense there they are become a rogue element in the economy they're undermining the economy they're dangerous Jim you've just noticed that things are going wrong in Washington DC max why don't you watch your show yes things are going wrong in Washington DC in many ways well let's not talk about Jamie Dimon for a second over there JP Morgan you know he said recently he's ashamed to be American because of the current administration and what's going on in America you're a world traveler he says when he travels this is the sentiment people have what is this a common theme out there what do you think of his comments we love to bash Jamie on this show because we think he's a charlatan and a crook okay but we'll tell you that everywhere I go people are very perplexed I've told you that America is pushing the Chinese and the Russians together and pushing the Iranians and the Chinese together everybody sits and says what are they doing why are they hurting themselves now Washington may not know they're already answer but everybody sees what's happening what's going on and everybody's perplexed I'm perplexed and I'm an American I don't particularly like that they're pushing the Russians and the Chinese and the Persians together that's not going to help us that's gonna hurt us and recently mr.
Trump threw missiles at Syria people went said why do you do that the reason he gave turned out not to be legitimate he dropped a huge bomb in Afghanistan the BBC went over there afterwards and said what he said didn't happen you know they sent their own reporters to check recently he went to Saudi Arabia and he said you can point he cut Qatar if you want it he didn't know that America's largest basin and at least is in Qatar so we're going to have Americans fighting Americans over things that are happening I mean this this is all happening I don't particularly war profile you would say the risks of something going wrong are pretty high I told you we're gonna have very very serious problems in the world and the next couple of years you should be worried you should watch TV all right Jim Rogers I got to watch more of myself
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