저자: MichaelBurry · 외국인
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결론: Burry는 패시브 투자(인덱스·ETF) 확대가 주식·채권 가격을 부풀리고 있어 중단기적으로 큰 조정이 올 수 있다고 경고하며, 정확한 시점은 모르지만 거품이 길어질수록 폭락이 더 클 것이라고 말한다. 핵심 주장: 패시브 자금 유입이 2008년 이전 부채담보부증권(CDO)과 유사하게 자산 가격을 왜곡하고 있으며, 이 흐름이 역전되면 시장이 크게 흔들린다는 주장. 포트폴리오 설명(영상 기준, 2020년 11월 공시): 보유 종목은 10개이며 공매도 포지션은 공개 의무가 없어 제외된다고 설명. 테일러브랜즈: 비중 약 13%, 보유액 1270만 달러, 전분기 대비 40% 증가. 주가가 5년간 90% 하락했으나 저평가 가치투자 관점에서 매수한 것으로 해석. 웨스턴디지털: 비중 약 12.4%, 1190만 달러, 전분기 대비 66% 증가. 변동성이 커 스윙 트레이딩과 가치투자 모두에 적합하다고 설명. 클리블랜드클리프스: 비중 약 12.3%, 철광석 기업으로 PER 1.84 수준의 낮은 밸류에이션. 변동성이 커 예측이 어렵다는 점 언급. 페덱스: 비중 약 10.3%, 신규 편입. 택배 물량 성장 둔화와 아마존·UPS와의 경쟁이 우려 요인. 알파벳(구글): 비중 약 10.2%. 광고, 유튜브, 안드로이드, 클라우드, 웨이모 등 혁신 산업 노출. 카디널헬스: 비중 약 9.9%, 신규 편입. 시장 하락기에도 헬스케어는 상대적으로 덜 하락한다는 논리. 알리바바: 비중 약 8.9%, 840만 달러. 중국 이커머스·결제·클라우드 노출. 디즈니: 비중 약 8.8%, 6만 주. 미디어·엔터테인먼트, 디즈니+ 경쟁력 언급. 그린스카이: 비중 약 7.7%, 730만 달러. 소매·헬스케어·주택 계약자 대상 대출 플랫폼. 스포츠맨스웨어하우스: 비중 약 6.3%, 전분기 대비 27% 증가. 낮은 PER(9.09)로 저평가 가능성 언급. 리스크: 패시브 자금 역전 시 급락 가능성, 시점 불확실. 포트폴리오 대부분 종목이 과거 저평가·턴어라운드 관점에서 선택됨. 출연자 전망: 시장 전반 조정 가능성에 대해 경계적 입장을 유지하며, 현 시점에서도 일부 종목은 가치 관점에서 매수 중이라고 언급.
다듬은 글
michael bury he's the guy from the movie the big short who predicted the last financial crisis in 2008 and the funny thing is he's actually predicting another financial crisis in the short to medium term future michael bury he said passive investments such as index funds and exchange traded funds are inflating stock and bond prices in a similar way that collateralized debt obligations did for subprime mortgages more than 10 years ago when the massive inflows into passive vehicles reverse it will be ugly he said he doesn't know exactly when it will be but he does say like most bubbles the longer it goes on the worse the crash will be now what i want to do with this video is take a deeper dive into michael bury's portfolio how has he prepared himself for this potential upcoming market crash okay taking a deeper look into his portfolio you can see that he only owns 10 stocks so let's go over these 10 stocks that he owns and remember this does not include his short positions because he does not have to publicly disclose them anyway let's get straight into his biggest stock position so michael bury's largest stake is a stock some of you may have heard of before it's called taylor brands it makes up just over 13 of his portfolio uh barry has 12.7 million dollars of the stock and bury has been buying big into taylor brands uh his position has increased 40 percent from the previous quarter so what is tailored brands it's a us-based retail holdings company for various men's apparel stores okay so it just owns a bunch of men's apparel stores in the united states very simple business model now if you take a look at taylor brand's stock price over the past couple of years it's been a sad sad story for the company the stocks price has gone down 90 percent in five years time that that is ridiculous and this is just because they've been posting absolutely terrible numbers when it comes to their net income their profit over the past couple of years has been either negative or close to nothing which obviously resulted in investors panicking and the stocks price shooting down but this is where michael berry comes into the equation he loves to buy stocks when they are cheap when everyone else is panicking he's a self-proclaimed value and opportunistic investor and this is why he's brought so big into taylor brands recently i mean his position is up 40 percent from the previous quarter and it's his number one stock position moving on to bury's second largest position making up a similar size to tailored brands of the portfolio uh twelve point four three percent uh bury owns 11.9 million dollars in the stock and its size is up 66 from the previous quarter western digital is an american computer hard disk drive manufacturer and data storage company so basically it manufactures and sells hard disk drives and also products relating to storage the likes of data center systems cloud storage services and other storage devices looking at the stock it has been a crazy year for wdc uh first they dropped by forty percent then they went up by around fifty percent then they dropped again and now as of recently they are up over 70 this stock really is a swing traders heaven and also a value investors heaven if they can truly find the intrinsic value of the stock obviously michael bury feels he knows the intrinsic value of the stock which is why he's bought so much recently and my guess is he's bought around this dip over here it's a stock to look deeper into if it drops again a very interesting choice of stock here this is a stock that mines iron ore michael bury's investing firm owns 11.7 million dollars in cleveland cliffs and it comes in at 12.27 percent of his overall portfolio so as i said before cleveland cliffs is a firm that is based around iron ore they mine it they beneficiate officiated and they palletize it apparently at least according to their website they are building the future but honestly i feel like every company stays there on their website these days now probably the first thing that you'll notice when you take a look at cleveland cliff stock is their p e ratio the price is 7.26 the earnings is 3.94 which gives it a p e ratio of just 1.84 and okay the reason why this p ratio is so low is because these types of iron ore stocks they're so volatile i just take a look at the previous earnings per share 2014 and 2015 the stock had negative earnings per share then in the years to come it has been positive but if we look to the future it can be really hard to predict what is going to happen which is why the price is so low either way michael bury obviously feels he knows the stock well and that he can understand it and that's why he's bought into it this next stock in bury's portfolio is a completely new position and it now makes up 10.3 percent of his portfolio he owns 9.8 million dollars worth of fedex stock i'm sure a lot of you will know what fedex does they're obviously the career delivery services company in the united states as it says on wikipedia the company is known for its overnight shipping services empire nearing a system that could track packages and provide real-time updates on package location it's basically your general delivery service company as you can see fedex deliver an absolute ton of packages daily and in 2019 it had an average of 6.2 million packages delivered daily but the worry for fedex is that package delivery seems to be slowing down and maturing how are things going to play out with amazon and ups can they keep growing in the future you know this is the big question when it comes to fedex stock if you haven't heard of this next stock owned by michael berry then you might be a lost cause this is one of if not the most well-known company in the world google you obviously use google as a search engine most of the time probably just to search up junk on the internet and google obviously gets paid for the ads that get shown to the billions of eyeballs that use their site but you know google or alphabet which is what the pairing company is called they own more than just google they obviously own youtube which is what you're watching this on they own android as well in the in the play store they own google cloud gmail they own waymo the self-driving car company let's just say this they're in a bunch of innovative high growth industries and as i said before michael berry considers himself an opportunistic investor which is a big reason why he's not afraid to have 10.17 percent of his stock portfolio in google the thing is in a market crash we still need health care cardinal health as per the name is a health care company and it comes in at 9.85 of his stock portfolio it's a completely new position for michael bury and as i was trying to say before the healthcare sector tends to perform better than most sectors in a crash you know even in a market crash what you'll find is that pretty much all of the sectors are going to go down in price but some will go down by less than others the healthcare sector goes down by less than others because obviously humans still need their health taken care of it does not matter what the stock market is doing alibaba started by the great chinese man jack ma which he built into china's largest company now michael bury has invested into jack mars alibaba he has 8.4 million dollars in the company which comes in as 8.86 of his stock portfolio alibaba it's a whole web of different companies they've obviously got taobao timor and aliexpress which is all based around e-commerce it's kind of like china's version of amazon they have ant financial which is similar to that of the western paypal it's an online payment system they have alicloud which is like google cloud and they own a certain percentage of china's version of facebook called weibo so if you own alibaba you're gonna be exposing yourself pretty well to china walt disney classic company biri owns 60 000 shares in this company the market value is 8.3 million dollars and it's it makes up 8.76 of his portfolio disney is the media and entertainment company obviously from the usa you know they've got their theme parks very well known attraction very popular with tourists they also have the tv channel for kids and most importantly they produce films the likes of these films here are all made by disney you know you've got a lot of classics from back in the day uh and obviously you've got more modern big ones as well and you know they've obviously developed slash developing disney plus which will compete against netflix so you know this company is a well-diversified united states company based in the entertainment sector obviously owned by buri green sky it's not your everyday well-known stock by any stretch of the imagination i'll tell you more about green sky in a bit but first bury has 7.71 of his stock portfolio um in green sky and he owns 7.3 million dollars worth of it so what is green sky green sky is actually a lending platform so they enable retailers health care providers and home contractors to offer loans to their customers a very interesting business model and you know if you look at the stats they have 17 000 active merchants 2.6 million customers satisfied and 19 billion dollars of loans funded so you know they're pretty big in the finance world at least in the usa anyway let's move on to our last stock sportsman's warehouse it makes up six point three one percent of brewery's total stock portfolio and this position is up 27 from the previous year uh basically what this business is is it's an outdoor sporting goods retailer and they obviously have more than one store they can be found in 25 states across the united states you know if the sporting business is something that you're passionate about and that you can understand i ruled i would recommend digging deeper into the stock it's got some nice numbers attached to it very low pe ratio of just 9.09 and the price has been pretty stagnant for a while and michael bury has bought it so you know there's a good chance that it is undervalued anyway those are burries 10 stocks that he owns through his investment fund see on asset management now remember not included are the shorts positions of michael bury because he does not have to legally disclose his short positions a little bit unfortunate but what can you do about that either way in these market conditions brewery is still buying certain stocks all 10 of these stocks except disney are either new positions or increased positions so bury still finds value in certain areas of the stock markets
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