저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
요약 보기
Siegel는 Powell의 FOMC 기자회견이 좋았다고 평가합니다. 임대료, 자동차 보험료, 하락하는 원자재 가격 등 인플레이션 요인들이 물가가 안정되고 있음을 시사한다고 봅니다. 그는 여전히 금리 인하를 예상하지만, 이전보다는 그 폭이 적을 것으로 보고 있습니다. 소비자들은 가격에 민감하지만 아직 경기침체의 조짐은 없으며, 실질 GDP는 약 2~3% 성장하고 있다고 말합니다. 올해 주식시장이 연간 상승으로 마감할 것으로 예상하지만, 작년만큼 강하지는 않을 것이라고 합니다. 그럼에도 주식은 여전히 채권보다 높은 수익을 낼 것이라고 봅니다. 그는 연준이 장기간 제로금리를 유지한 것은 잘못된 판단이었다고 말합니다. 2020~2021년의 약 9조 달러 이상 규모 경기부양책이 인플레이션 급등을 초래했지만, 통화량은 최근 2년간 안정적으로 유지되고 있다고 설명합니다.
다듬은 글
for more on the markets in the FED want to bring you arden School of Business Chief Economist at Wisdom Tree good morning to you we heard what Jay palet to say yesterday I don't know if you're a believer that uh the next time he even touches rates that he's lowering them or he's maybe raising them uh I don't think he's raising them odds are overwhelming against that I thought it was a very good uh news conference I mean the only thing I quibble with is he's still trying to blame uh inflation three years ago on supply side well when I think it was a uh you know an excessive burst of money uh and the stimulus but nonetheless uh I think he got it absolutely right um I I think in fact there will be rate Cuts uh you know not as many certainly as we thought six months ago but uh when I look at the factors that have made this inflation sticky over the last three four months namely rentals uh uh car insurance um uh we saw a break in commodity prices this week for the first time in in two months that's a good sign uh so forward looking I do think they're very favorable signs that inflation uh is going to calm down what is your sense of when you when you think about the stock market and you think about stocks in particular we've seen the tech companies have been big Winners that's been clear we talked just earlier about Starbucks we've talked about McDonald's uh we've talked about even Andy jasse even though they've had great success um in large part he's talked about the trade down that he's seeing among uh consumers how worried are you about that I'm not too worried the sensitive indicators I see are not yet turning downward uh you know you do see some caution and resistance to higher prices I think that's one of the things that's going to keep that inflation under control uh you know Starbucks prices I mean it's great quality but it's high and people are saying hey you know uh you know I'm not necessarily going to go for that I think that that is one of the factors that's going to keep inflation lower listen I mean you know consumers are are going to be Thrifty but I don't see a downturn I mean the sensitive indicators obviously Friday we're going to get the employment report uh I think actually what in a less than a half an hour we get that uh the unemployment claims I like to look at that as a weekly indicator so the spending weekly indicators I see do not see a decisive uh weakening uh I I still think this economy is moving along 2 3% real GDP rate and then when you think though about the stock market you're walking into an election uh cycle I mean we're we're already in it obviously but given the volatility that some people are projecting I don't know where you think we end the year I I think we end the year up I don't think it's going to be as good as as last year I mean we we're getting spoiled we we have to realize you know long term the Market's up around 7% a year on average uh you know we get 20 and people keep on thinking boy if it's less than that I'm going to be disappointed uh 78% uh return with a even a a dividend of one and two uh is still definitely better than bonds at this point so uh I still think stocks are going be the winner Jeremy one of things you brought up again and again was how long the FED uh stay at zero uh you'll never forgive him for that I don't think I will never forgive that that was a miscalculation on inflation and the point you just made that you're you're convinced you've always thought it was uh demand engendered not supply engendered but the stimulus is still there the all the none of these programs are are finished and you know we keep getting new ones we keep you know some art school that uh people had to borrow we're going to pay off that six billion there there's a lot we're still doing why don't you think the FED could be once again wrong about the threat of inflation because the demand push is that that you talk about is still present how do you know for sure that that it's under control well it's still it's not at the degree uh Joe is what we had we had N9 plus trillion dollar of stimulus within what two years uh of the onset of the covid crisis now the first package we could say when no one knew it was going to happen Okay and then we had a second Trump package not really and then we had huge Biden packages as the economy was roaring back and which the FED just printed money and gave it right to the government to spend on all that that's over now certainly the infrastructure infrastructure is a long-term uh and and that is still going on and of course we still have a lot of spending on all those other things that we kept on going but the big bulk of the Splurge of spending uh is gone um and that's what and and and I look at the money supply and that's been very stable over the last two years so we're not in that situation that we were in in 2020 2021 which of course I think was the the real cause of of the burst of inflation we had
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