저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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금 vs 비트코인 논쟁 영상으로, 두 출연자 모두 단기 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 예측(목표가·기간)은 제시하지 않았고 장기 견해 위주다. 비트코인 가격 변동성 및 일론 머스크 트윗 영향 - 익명 참석자가 머스크 트윗이 비트코인 가격을 크게 흔든다는 점을 지적 - Scaramucci: 머스크 영향력은 시장이 아직 초기라는 증거이며, 향후 한 사람이 네트워크에 영향을 못 미치는 시점이 온다고 봄 - Schiff: 일일 가격이 개인 트윗에 좌우되는 것은 화폐로서 너무 변동적이고 조작에 취약하다는 증거 금과 비트코인의 화폐 기능 - Schiff: 금도 현재 교환매체로 기능하지 않지만 과거에 기능했고 미래에도 가능하다. 비트코인은 한 번도 그런 적이 없음 - Scaramucci: 금은 5천년 이상 자산의 일부였으며 미래에도 남겠지만, 세계는 가치저장 수단으로서 금을 넘어서고 있다고 봄 - 역사적 화폐 논의(Ferguson 인용), 지폐의 실물가치 대비 신뢰 네트워크 개념 언급 환경 영향 논쟁 - Scaramucci: 비트코인 탄소발자국은 전 세계 탄소의 약 0.13%, 채굴의 56%가 재생에너지이며 2030년대 말 100% 목표라고 주장 - Schiff: 같은 효율은 비트코인 없이도 달성 가능하며 비트코인은 지속적 에너지 소모가 큰 비용 버블과 오분배(malinvestment) 논쟁 - Schiff: 암호화폐는 연준의 통화정책이 촉발한 거대한 버블이며, 버블 붕괴 시 손실과 인적·자원 낭비가 남는다고 경고 - Scaramucci: 블록체인과 토큰화로 신원·거래 효율이 개선되고 세계가 더 나아졌다고 주장 출연자 전망 - Schiff: 비트코인 장기적으로 부정적(버블, 화폐 기능 부재) - Scaramucci: 비트코인은 계속 유지되며 가치 이전 및 저장 수단, 장기적으로 글로벌 통화가 될 수 있다고 전망(단, 특정 가격 목표 없음)
다듬은 글
what about elon musk good point from an anonymous attendee uh elon musk's tweets in fact uh on the bitcoin price has been a shock to the system the coin has value the network's so vital how can one man's opinion swing the price so much the elon factor uh yeah anthony well you know i think that's more evidence about how early we are you know peter mentioned that i'm late to the game but i actually don't think so i think we're in the very very early innings of this and elon musk's approach and his influence on bitcoin i think is evidence of how early we are there will come a time where no one person will be able to have that kind of influence over the network but as uh you know elon musk admitted in his interview with kathy wood and jack dorsey he has several billion dollars worth of bitcoin across his personal account spacex and tesla yeah well i i would think that the fact that one man's tweets can have such an impact on the daily price valuation is another reason that bitcoin fails uh as money it's just too volatile on a daily basis routinely and it's too subject to manipulation what about alan greenspan and jerome powell and and people like that peter what about those yeah yeah well you know gold gold isn't functioning right now as uh as a media of exchange either uh but it has in the past and it can in the future bitcoin never has so it's a it's a big leap of faith to say that one day it will but you know anthony you know just with all due respect i mean nobody who's late to the party thinks they're late to the party otherwise you wouldn't come so you you always think that it's going to keep going but i'm telling you the police are on the way they're going to raid this party and you you know peter when you're buying your bitcoin at 250 000 a coin i'm going to assure you that you're not that late don't worry if bitcoin goes to 250 000 it's possible i say it's not very probable i mean but nothing's impossible you know i said you know but if it happens i can tell you one thing i ain't gonna buy any so don't look to me to get out um we do disagree on this and not to say that gold won't be part of our future because it's been part of our past for five thousand plus years and so i'm really confident that gold will be part of our future but i do believe the world is moving past gold in terms of a store of value that the largest group of our populations will be a part of and so um i want to start out with the history of money i think it's very important uh and i'll cite from neil ferguson's book the ascent of money where professor ferguson says in the book there are three axiomatic facts about it number one it's a technology that we're using to transfer goods and services among ourselves to avoid bartering number two it's a trusted network and so i brought some props tonight and so you see these uh in my neighborhood these are italian signal singles and okay and now what are these things they're actually pieces of fabric we call it paper money uh but this piece of fabric here is about 25 linen 75 cotton there's a little strip in there interestingly enough for america only white dead males on our money last industrial nation that does that but what is this really worth at the end of the day it's not worth that much and one of the axiomatic facts from this professor ferguson's book is that this technology this money is always worth less than the goods and services that were transacting for but what's important about this is it's a trusted network i can pass this on to somebody and they know with great confidence they can pass it on to somebody else but as satoshi nakamoto said or the group of people known as satoshi nakamoto the inventor of bitcoin and the the group or the gentleman or the woman that wrote this white paper they basically explained that this money throughout history has been corrupted i thought we would be remiss not to mention is the environmental impacts and i'm sorry there was a question about that rather than me scroll through i'll just ask it um yes environmental impacts particularly at a time 26 is coming up in the the uk the international community is much more focused on environmental issues climate change solutions than it was i mean environmentally it doesn't seem to be the world's greatest blessing and to need to put pressure on on you a little bit on your side on that one so i just want to think people to think through that because if there's a world of decentralization coming and there's peer-to-peer transfer of value you're taking out the bank teller you're taking out the real estate associated with the bank teller the heating and cooling off of that bank the gas to get to the bank branch uh you're changing the entire society and making it way more environmentally and economically efficient moreover bitcoin's overall carbon footprint right now is 0.13 percent of the world's carbon and so i know people are upset about bitcoin uh but 56 of the mining and the tracking of bitcoin is done through renewable energy which would include hydro power wind power and solar power and the goal for the network is to get that to 100 by the end of the decade and i believe that that will happen peter is a soluble problem well you know a lot of the efficiencies that anthony was pointing out they can be solved without the introduction of bitcoin i think bitcoin is very expensive you has to continuously expend energy to keep the bitcoin network powered but also what i'm worried about is not just a waste of energy and other resources but all of the investment money all of the talent that is being completely squandered in this crypto bubble all sorts of very smart people are spending a lot of time wasting a lot of time coming up with all these crazy industries built around crypto a lot of people are investing their money this is a massive bubble this is what you call a malinvestment in the austrian school all of this being fueled by the monetary policies of the fed and so at the end of the day when this bubble pops not only are we going to be poor because people would have lost a lot of money but all of that talent all those resources that otherwise could have put to been put to productive use were wasted on cryptocurrencies you know peter says that the world hasn't been made better but it actually has and i want i want you to think about it philosophically the blockchain and the introduction of cryptocurrency and the tokenization is going to allow us to do things way more efficiently in our society in terms of transferring goods and services and i'll just remind you of this we have to take these things from the government now the money our identities are actually granted to us from the government where we get a passport or a driver's license but in the world of the blockchain and the concepts of tokenization our identity actually becomes ourselves uh and it can be expressed over that network and i just want people to think about the magnitude of that and the freedom of that and the fact that this is so decentralized that it's relatively uncorruptable and we know how frail human nature is as it relates to corruptability so i do think the world has been greatly improved and i think bitcoin is here to stay and it will be a transfer mechanism for value and a store of value and possibly a global currency over time thank you both that was extraordinarily interesting duel i certainly enjoyed it very much and learnt a lot from it
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