저자: MarcinWenus · 외국인
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IBM 실적 하향 및 AI 투자 자금 쏠림으로 25% 급락, 시장이 AI 지출의 자금 조달을 의문시하기 시작. Michael Burry는 빅테크(MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, META, ORCL)의 AI 투자 지속 가능성에 회의적. Intel은 아일랜드 팹 투자로 상승했으나 PER 100 이상으로 부담, 7/23 실적이 관건. Siemens Energy는 전력 수요 수혜로 목표가 범위 130~235유로. 협찬 툴(Investing Pro) 홍보 포함. 출연자 소속은 채널명 기준으로만 확인.
다듬은 글
- 25% in one day. That's how much one of the oldest and considered the safest technology giants in the world, IBM, lost. It was his worst session since Black Monday 1987 . Almost two years of growth evaporated from the chart in a few hours. And what was the reason for this? The CEO went out to investors and admitted something the market didn't want to hear .
his clients' money suddenly stopped flowing to IBM and fled elsewhere, of course to artificial intelligence. And this is the most important story on Wall Street today because it shows the other, darker side of the whole AI fever. Who loses from it, who gains from it and why one of the most famous skeptics of this market says bluntly: "This account doesn't stack up." And finally, 95-year-old Warren Buffett, standing on the sidelines with a mountain of cash.
Well, he just did something he hadn't done in 20 years. Stay, because today it all comes together into one really interesting, coherent whole. This is Marcin Venus. Welcome to the Wall Street Review at Komparic Global Markets. I'm glad you're here . Today's episode has one common denominator and that is the race for artificial intelligence, or more specifically, the huge amounts of money that companies are investing in this race.
Let's break down the IBM crash we started with . But apart from IBM, today we will give the floor to the skeptic Michael Berry, who asks whether the giants will even bear these expenses. Then we'll flip the coin over and show those who are making good money from this whole madness. Intel, which is currently investing billions in new factories, and Siemens Energy, a company that analysts believe has up to 50% growth potential.
And on Dessert Classic, or Warren Buffett and his transfer of fortune. Oh, and one more thing , before we get into the numbers, I have a really cool gift for you today. and a strong promotion with the partner of today's episode, which I use almost every day when I sit down to research companies. I'll give you the details in the middle with IBM, because that tool shows something that perfectly fits today's story.
So let's start with this crash. Let's go back a few weeks. At the turn of May and June, IBM was still the market darling. The company announced a $10 billion investment in quantum computers and the construction of its own quantum chip factory called Anderon, supported by $1 billion from a government program.
The price shot up over 27% in a week to around $320. It looked like a great comeback for the old giant. But then July 14th came. IBM reported results and cut its revenue forecast from about $17.9 billion to $17.2 billion. It seems like a minor correction, but CEO Arwin Kriszna added a sentence that knocked the stock off its feet.
admitted that sales of infrastructure software simply dried up at the end of June. From one day to the next, customers shifted their budgets to artificial intelligence infrastructure, servers, memory, and graphics processors, and there was no money left for classic IBM products. Krishna himself said the company completely underestimated the scale of this spending drive.
And here is the crux of the matter. This is not a story about one weak company. This is the first hard evidence of something we discussed in our previous review, that the AI bull market is dangerously narrow. Company budgets are not made of rubber. Every dollar pumped into graphics cards and data centers is a dollar that someone else doesn't get .
Software developer, consulting company, old-generation server supplier. Artificial intelligence is starting to eat its own industry from the inside. Well, he just got a very, very brutal bill. The reaction was incredible. The price fell over 25% to around $217. The worst session in almost 40 years. And now the most important question that every investor looking at such a convention asks themselves.
Is this panic and opportunity, or is this actually the beginning of real trouble for this company. How do you even value it? value a company that loses a quarter of its value in one day. Well, I do n't guess at times like these. We open Investing Pro and here I will show you something that stopped me, because the fair value model of this tool based on several hundred indicators values IBM today at around $287 are.
With a price of 217, this gives over 30% room up, and the uncertainty level of this valuation is marked by the tool as very low. And now pay attention, because this is a clue. The same model on July 8, at a rate of $306, showed a practically identical fair value . The same approximately $287 ares. So IBM was slightly overpriced back then, about 6% above fair value.
The crash didn't change anything in the fundamentals. He just lowered the price and it went way below that value. Simply put, the market sees a fire and the utility sees a discount tag. In addition, there are fresh recommendations from before the crash, which Investing Pro collects in one place. Bank of America with a target price of 330, RBC 300, JP Morgan 291, and the boldest Berkleyce 350, City 375 and Melius as much as 390, with a buy consensus and hard, strong sides that the panic did not erase.
Free cash flow of 2 billion in the first quarter. Highest first quarter in a decade, mainframe sales up 48%, recurring software revenue reaching $25 billion, 30 years of continuous dividend increases. And the price-to-earnings ratio in relation to growth, the famous PEK, is at 0.28, which, in simple terms, means that the company is cheap relative to the rate at which its profits are growing.
Honestly, there is another side too, and Investing Pro doesn't hide it. Debt of $66 to $70 billion. Short-term liabilities higher than liquid assets. Consulting is growing by barely 1%, and the public cloud, where IBM has about 3% of the market, while Amazon has 31% and Microsoft 25. Yes, there are risks, but that is the essence of good analysis.
See both at once based on hard data, not on emotions from one red session. And this is where the promotion I mentioned at the beginning comes in. The tool that IBM just reviewed is Investing Pro. Together with our partner, we have prepared an opportunity for you that has never been seen before. The website itself now offers up to 60% off, and with our Comparic code you add another 15% to that, for a total of up to 75% cheaper, meaning you're buying for 25% of the price of what IBM dropped.
This is the lowest price I can remember. The full code and link can be found in the description below the video. If you invest in individual companies and want to have fair value, recommendations, and financial data in one place, this is the time. I really recommend it. This is a great, great tool. And since IBM took a hit because money flowed into artificial intelligence, the question arises: will those to whom these billions flow really be able to sustain it?
And here comes back to the scene a man many of you know from the movie The Big Short. Michael Berry, the one who made a fortune predicting the 2008 crisis. His thesis, widely reported in the German financial media, is quite inconvenient. Barry says the biggest players, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Oracle, may not be able to financially sustain the pace at which they are investing in AI.
And here are three reasons that are worth taking a closer look at. First, hidden costs. Companies pay employees in shares, and this cost is not always fairly reflected in the profit and loss statement. And as an example, I'll give you Oracle, which shows an annual profit of $12.4 billion, but at the same time it gives away shares worth $4.67 to its employees.
This is a real cost that eats up cash, even though it doesn't show up in the headline results. Second, depreciation. Giants settle for expensive artificial intelligence equipment for 5, sometimes 6 years. The problem is that the latest NVIDIA processor actually ages every 18 to 24 months. In other words, the equipment is still alive in the books and generating profits on paper, but in the server room it is already obsolete.
This artificially inflates the reported profits. And thirdly, and this seems to be the most important thing, free cash flow. Despite growing revenues after deducting these gigantic data center investments, the real cash position of many of these companies can be negative. Revenues are supposedly growing, but there is less and less money in your pocket.
And now look how it closes. IBM is no exception. This is the first pebble that has fallen. If Ber is right, the IBM story is a precursor, not an anomaly. Therefore, it is worth treating this session as a litmus test. For the first time in a long time, the market has started to ask not how much you are spending on AI, but how you will actually pay for these investments .
But as always, there are two sides to the coin. If everyone is fighting for computing power, then someone has to produce that power. And this is where the company that has been the whipping boy for years comes in . Well, it has been revived quite recently, very strongly, i.e. Intel. Fresh news. Intel is spending 5 billion euros, or about $5.7 billion, to expand its factory in Lakleep, Ireland.
This is 1/3 of the company's entire investment budget this year, which amounts to $17 billion. The money [snort] will go towards the latest technology for producing server processors, with the expenses spread out until the end of 2027. In short , Intel is betting everything on the fact that demand for AI chips will only grow, and the market has already believed it.
Maybe too much. Intel shares have risen 193% this year and more than 360% year-over-year. This is one of the greatest comebacks on Wall Street. The fundamentals are also improving. In the first quarter, revenue reached $13.58 billion, up 7% year-over- year, with the data center segment jumping 22% to $5.1 billion.
But I have to give you a fair warning here, because that's what we're here for. First, the stock is already down 24% from its June peak around 142, so volatility is not high. Secondly, and more importantly, the valuation is tight as a page. The price-to-forecasted earnings ratio here is well over 100.
This is a level that leaves zero room for error. Analysts are divided. KBank raised the target price to $155, while cautious STFEL sees only 120, with the average for the entire market being just 104. The key test will come on July 23 after the session. Then Intel will report its second-quarter results.
Well, this will be the moment of truth for this whole bull market. We're staying with the beneficiaries, but we're moving from Silicon Valley to Europe and to something that's far too rarely talked about in the context of AI . Well, because data centers don't run on good intentions, they run on electricity, huge amounts of electricity.
And who supplies this electricity and builds the networks that will carry it? Among other things, the German Siemens Energy is one of the hottest companies in Europe today. Komparing [snort] described the analysts' fresh forecasts, and these can fire up the imagination. The exchange rate is currently around €150.
Meanwhile, JP Morgan sets a target price of €235. Jeffrees at 215, and the market consensus is above 197. Based on today's price, the most optimistic scenarios speak of a potential upside of up to 50%. And this company is a giant. There are four engines of this size. Modernization of outdated power grids, construction of data centers, growing demand for electricity driven by artificial intelligence, and the entire energy transformation.
But as always, there are two ends to every stick. Not everyone hits. Way to go. Berkley cools down the enthusiasm and gives a target price of just €130, which is below the current price. And how does he argue this? The risk of a slowdown in the gas turbine segment, which has so far been the company's main driving force.
And this spread of valuations from €130 to €235 is the best picture of today's market. Everyone agrees that artificial intelligence needs energy, but no one is sure exactly how much they will pay for that energy, or how long the increased demand will last. And finally, someone who looks at the whole fever from a great distance, from an armchair and with a real mountain of cash, namely Warren Buffett.
Buffett, 95, announced that he will donate the remainder of his Berksshire Hawaii shares to four charitable foundations by the end of 2034. In the first tranche, he exchanged 8,000 Series A shares for 12 million Series B shares. The lion's share of 9 million shares will go to his late wife's foundation, while the remaining three family foundations will receive one million each.
Buffett himself put it simply. These shares will go to four foundations in one way or another by December 31, 2034. But the most interesting one is the one missing from the list. For the first time in about 20 years, the Bill Gates Foundation is not on the list of recipients. The reason is subtle. Buffett is awaiting the outcome of an internal review of the Gates Foundation after U.S.
Justice Department documents revealed Gates' past dealings with Jeffrey Epstein. It's a quiet but eloquent gesture from someone who has maintained a very close friendship with Gates over the years . And why am I closing this episode? Because it's the perfect counterpoint. The rest of today's story is fever.
Billions pumped in, crash, euphoria, 50% potential. And the old school, embodied by Buffett, is sitting on a record mountain of cash and calmly giving away its wealth. Berksshire shares themselves, for the record, are about 8% below their May highs. It's worth remembering that the best investors in the world tend to be calmest precisely when the rest of the market is running around nervously.
And now I will put it all together into one thought. Today's Wall Street is one big bet, no artificial intelligence. But the market finally started asking for a bill. IBM showed who is paying for this race . Barry asks if the giants can lift him. Intel and Zemens Energy show where this capital is really making money, and Buffett reminds us that sometimes the best move is no move.
What to watch out for in the coming days? First up, Intel's results on July 23rd. This will be a test of whether demand for chips is really as strong as the market estimates. Secondly, will the IBM Crash stand alone or will it drag down other companies outside the AI premier league, because if Barry is right, this wasn't the last day like this.
And thirdly, will IBM's fair value, the $287 ares from the Investing Pro model, prove to be an anchor to which the price will return, or rather an illusion that the market will verify downwards? Write down these three points. We will return to them in the future. And if you found the episode useful, leave a thumbs up and subscribe to the channel.
This really helps us. And for the Investing Pro tool with our promotion of up to 70% off, check out the description. And my name is Marcin Wenus. This was another look at Wall Street, or rather global markets, on Compar Global Markets. See you next time. So, invest wisely. Yeah.
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