저자: 워런버핏 · 외국인
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버핏은 비트코인 같은 생산성 없는 자산은 투자가 아니라 다음 사람이 더 비싸게 살 것을 기대하는 투기(더 바보 이론)라고 규정한다. 자산 평가 기준: 농장이나 사업은 매년 작물·이익을 내지만, 금이나 비트코인은 아무것도 생산하지 않아 보유자가 얻는 것은 다음 매수자의 가격뿐이라고 설명한다. 금의 과거 사례: 예수 시대부터 현재까지 금 1온스를 사기 위해 필요한 노동시간을 비교하면 실질 수익은 연 0.1~0.2% 수준이며, 도난 위험까지 감수해야 한다고 언급한다. 주식 대비 수익률: 1942년에 금을 샀다면 같은 기간 주식 수익의 1페니 미만 수준이라며, 금을 가치저장 수단으로 보는 것은 망상이라고 평가한다. 골드만삭스 암호화폐 거래 사업: 골드만이 거래 수익을 노리는 것일 뿐 가치에 대한 의견을 표명한 것은 아니며, 고위 임원들이 골드만 주식을 팔고 비트코인을 사지는 않을 것이라고 본다. 과열 경고: 튤립 버블처럼 사람들이 집을 팔아 투기하는 현상을 언급하며, 가격 상승만 보고 들어가는 것은 위험하다고 경고한다. 가치 기준 부재: 주식은 PER 같은 정량적 기준이 있지만 생산성 없는 자산은 기준점이 없어 가격이 오른다는 이유만으로 움직인다고 지적한다. 리스크: 자산 자체가 아무것도 만들지 않으므로 매수자 풀이 줄거나 심리가 바뀌면 가격이 급락할 수 있다는 구조적 위험을 강조한다.
다듬은 글
at one point this weekend you said that Bitcoin and this was basically you were asked Charlie said Vic coins like rat poison you were asked about that comment and you said well it's probably more like rat poison squared Charlie went on in the meeting to then basically called Bitcoin turns he is an expressive store I just want to ask you about that because it sparked so much controversy and particularly on Twitter and some of the places where you might expect people who are trading and encrypt a currency to be pretty loud about what they heard what what is it about Bitcoin that gets you guys so fired up well when you buy a farm you look at the crop every year and what prices are and you decide whether it was satisfactory invest buy I mean you look to the asset itself and what it produces for you when we buy a business we look at what the business earns and decide how we feel about it in terms of what we paid but we are buying something that at the end of the period we not only have what we bought in the first place but we have something that the asset produced and when you buy non-productive assets all you're counting on is whether the next person is going to pay you more because there are even more excited about another next person coming along but the asset itself is creating nothing one of the interesting things for example is gold if you go back to the time of Christ and you look at how many hours we had to give up in order to buy an ounce of gold and you take it forward to now you'll you'll find the compound right maybe a tenth or two-tenths of one percent you know and and then you have to ensure during that time but make sure you know somebody doesn't steal it from you know everything but it doesn't produce anything and productive assets you may have didn't pay too much for a productive asset but I've bought a farm in the 1980s and and every year look at how much it grows the way of soybeans and corn and at the end of that period I've still got the farm and I've gotten some significant income off of a apartment-house operating business but if if you eye by various cryptocurrencies they're not they're not got a multiply that I'm gonna be a bunch of rabbits sitting here in front of us then they're just gonna sit there and I got a hope next time you get more excited after I bought it from you and then yeah I'll get more excited and buy it from you and actually we could we could sit in the house by ourselves and we could keep running a price patrol but at the end of the time there's one Bitcoin sitting there and now we're gonna find somebody else and and they come to an end I made those yeah I mean that's a greater fool theory that's what you're saying well yeah it's it's it's buying something because you expect the pool of people who want to buy it because they want to sell it to somebody else will grow and and and it's wonderful because it does create a rising price does create more buyers and people think I've got to get in on this and and it's better if they don't understand it that's the other thing about non-productive you don't understand it you get much more excited than if you understand it I mean if you buy a bond associates gonna pay you four percent a year you're not gonna get any pleasant surprises she's going to pay a four percent here but if you you can have anything you want to imagine if you just look at something say that's magic you can do it with shark's teeth there's seashells or or anything and you know they did it with tulips and listen 17th century in and and Amsterdam and and they'll do it again I mean people they like to speculate they like to gamble and if you can get something Jennifer had something half plausible going on if you had bought gold in 1942 and you say we might lose the war we might have to run off to some other country and you know so let's put our assets in gold you would have less than a penny for every dollar you got from owning stocks less than a penny now somebody calls that a store of value I mean I think they're delusionary andrew has a question - Andrew hey Warren related to this issue of Bitcoin you saw that goldman sachs just last week announced they were going to create a effectively a trading operation around crypto currencies in bitcoin in particular you've been investor in Goldman what do you think of their decision to do that well they probably think that lots of people are gonna get very excited about not well and maybe already are but they they think there's money to be made trading them I don't think they're expressing an opinion on the ultimate value I would be very surprised at the top partners of Goldman or are selling their Goldman stock and putting it in the Bitcoin but I want to cover the subject now because my friend Charlotte come on at 8 o'clock there's no telling what he will that's my whole entire point I do want to ask Charlie about it because I think when he talked about the turds he was referring to this he said if you're trading this it's like watching other people trading turds and deciding you want to get a piece of that well you're not gonna get pretty combat on that hopefully Charlie's not awakened well people do trade on very crazy things overtime you know imagine people selling their homes to buy a tulip in Amsterdam if people think they're going to make money the next day and worse yet if they think somebody else but they know is going to make money and they aren't going to make money it just draws people in yeah aye-aye-aye can whisper something on this program and and kind of the more sillier was the more it might react because there's no quantitative limits if you buy a stock you say well I'll buy 215 times earnings but I won't buy the twenty times rate but when you get into something that doesn't produce anything you know there's no there's no check point sir listen there's nothing to reference it to it's just it's going up so
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