저자: HowardMarks/진행자KanakAgrawal제외 · 외국인
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투자 원칙 7가지 소개. 운(luck)과 실력 구분 필요, 역발상 투자와 블루오션 사고, 수익은 리스크 대비로 평가해야 함, 좋은 뉴스는 이미 주가에 반영되어 있음, 극단적 비관기가 장기 매수 기회, 결과 좋은 결정이 반드시 좋은 결정은 아님, 변동성보다 영구적 자본 손실이 진짜 리스크이며 리스크 회피도 리스크.
다듬은 글
in today's video we will listen and break down seven very important investing principles from Howard Marx Howard Marx is the founder of oak3 Capital Management and he's one of the largest investors in distress Securities with over $172 billion in asset under management distress security investor is a type of value investor who seeks to make a profit by investing in bargain opportunities presented by companies that are about to go bankrupt my name is kanak and welcome back to my channel your support is what keeps this channel running and if you find this video helpful then show your support by liking and subscribing to the channel and let me know your thoughts in the comment section below with that said let us listen to the first investing lesson from Howard marks you see somebody and they report a great return for the year the science the scientist who thinks that the world that that the investment world runs like the world of physics might think well great return that means the guy's a great investor but in truth uh it it might be somebody who who took a crazy shot and got lucky why because there's a lot of Randomness in the world you can't tell from an outcome whether a decision what's good or bad it's very important most people don't understand this let us break down this idea using a simple example imagine there are a thousand monkeys flipping a coin 10 times each out of these thousand monkeys There Will Be Few monkeys who might get a heads every single time but just because those monkeys got heads every time does not mean they are smarter or better at flipping coins than the others this simply got lucky similarly think about an investor who picks stocks without really understanding the companies or having a good reason for investing by luck the investor might beat the stock market and make huge returns but just because the returns are high does not automatically mean the investor is a great investor they just happen to be lucky this time and chances are they won't be able to repeat the success in the future my whole career has been built on on doing things that were uninvestable as you said high yield bonds in 1978 distress debt in 1988 emerging market equities 1998 these are all things that were under a cloud at the time we started and and they've been successful that doesn't mean you should buy everything that everybody else considers uninvestable but that is the place where you should start your search for bargains if you if you want Bargains you shouldn't look on the pile of things that everybody uh knows about loves and is happy with with uh those things are likely to have been bit up Howard Marx is talking about something called contrarian thinking this means thinking differently than the crowd this principle applies not just in the world of investing but also to life in general when most people think that a certain categories of stocks are a bad investment or not worth investing in the price of those stocks might actually go lower than the actual worth of those stocks and if you're are a contrarian thinker you can find really good deals in places that most people avoid this idea is also connected Ed to the business philosophy discussed in a book called Blue Ocean strategy the author explains how businesses can create a lot of value by either finding or creating new opportunities in places where nobody else is looking this is because places where everybody else is already doing business becomes too saturated making it hard to create anything new or valuable there I think that the distinguishing Mark between a great investor and a not grain investor is not merely how good the return was but how much risk they took to get it if you you know you can take you can lever up an S&P now nowadays with derivatives or ETFs you can buy an an ETF that goes up or down four times as much as the S&P or maybe eight times and if you if you buy that and you go into a very positive period in the market you'll have an astronomical return but it doesn't mean you're a great investor because they'll say look at that guy he went up eight times as much as the S&P well guess what if it had been a down period he would have gone down eight times as much as the S&P he added no value who's not a good investor I think that an exceptional investor is someone who has a good return disproportionate to the risk born a good return with the risk under control let us break down this idea with an example comparing your investment style to that of your neighbor picture your neighbor investing all his life savings into just one stock and over the course of five years he generated a return of 15% meanwhile you invested all your savings into lowcost S&P 500 ETF and after 5 years you generated a return of 12% even though your neighbor made more money than you did he took a huge Risk by putting everything into just one stock and if that stock had crashed or the company went bankrupt your neighbor would have lost all his savings on the other hand even though you earned 3% less you did not put all your eggs into one basket by investing in a well Diversified ETF you did not expose yourself to the same risk of losing everything if that one company failed so as Howard Marx said being a great investor means generating good returns while minimizing risk people who do not understand how the markets work or who haven't been around very long tend to think good news appreciation it doesn't necessarily work that way because the good news could already have been anticipated which means that even though the news is good it's greeted with the on have you ever noticed that sometimes a company posts a big profit but its stock price does not go up this happens a lot because the stock market is a discounting machine it means the stock prices already factor in the near future of a company now you might be wondering how the stock market already knows the future well there are thousands of analysts and active investors On The Wall Street whose job is to estimate what a stock should be worth based on what they think is the future of the company the collective guesses of these these people result in the stock price to reflect the near-term future today itself so when something actually happens whether it's good or bad the stock price does not change much because the market already anticipated it that's why good news does not always make the stock price go up because the market was already expecting it that sometimes things people are so pessimistic that no matter what assumption you make they still say no you're not being negative enough and when there is no limit to negativism then skepticism requires us to say that's too bad to be true and I concluded that that was the condition in '08 and that's why I wrote the memo and and of course uh in October 08 all you needed to make money was two things money to spend and the nerve to spend it you didn't need caution concern conservatism risk control patience selectivity discipline analytical ability you didn't need any of those things all you needed was money and nerve and if you had it you made a lot of money and if you had those other things they held you back let us look at historical examples to understand how investing during pessimistic times can pay off first is March of 2020 at the start of the covid-19 pandemic when everyone was worried about the future if you had put $10,000 into S&P 500 Index your money would have doubled Within 3 years by the end of 2023 that's a huge 33% rate of return second is January 2009 during the global financial crisis when people feared the worst for the financial system if you had invested $10,000 into S&P 500 your money would have doubled within 4 years by 2013 that's a solid 25% rate of return third is October 2002 after theom Bubble Burst when the stock market hit rock bottom and everyone was feeling pessimistic if you had invested 10 ,000 your money would have doubled in just 5 years that's a market beating 15% rate of return so as Warren Buffett famously said be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful this means that when people are negative or pessimistic about the stock market it is actually a great time to invest for the long term when there is a lot of negativity the market often offers Bargains with the potential for big returns in the future you can't tell the quality of a decision from the outcome now this is counterintuitive and in fact perplexing and most people who who are not analytical or insightful would say well of course you can good decisions work bad decisions fail but the truth of the matter is that in the world there are a lot of things that are unpredictable and random and as a result good decisions fail all the time and bad decisions succeed all the time and we all know people we say oh he he was right for the wrong reason MH or he was lucky or he was unlucky you can't think of the world as a place where good decision good outcome bad decision bad outcome it doesn't work that way let me illustrate this idea with a dramatic example picture someone who sells their house and puts all the money into a penny stock luckily that penny stock skyrockets making the person a multi-millionaire on the surface it seems like a great outcome they got rich by taking a huge risk and putting everything into a penny stock but was it really the right decision probably not even though things turned out well it was still a risky move to put everything into such a volatile investment just because something worked out in the end does not mean it was a smart choice from the start Howard Marx explained this by saying the quality of the outcome does not necessarily reflect the quality of the decision in life sometimes bad decisions lead to good outcomes but that does not mean it is wise to make bad decisions on purpose most people have subscribed to the view that volatility is risk I don't think so I think that the important risk is the two most important risks are number one the the risk of permanent impairment of capital or the risk of not taking enough risk and underperforming but you know we care so much about volatility and of course a lot of performance is evaluated based on the sharp ratio which is essentially the relationship between return and volatility but why and Buffett says I'd rather have a lumpy 15 than a smooth 12 and I say in the memo if you'd rather have a smooth 12 than a lumpy 15 you got to think about why is it for financial reasons or is it for uh psychological reasons emotional reasons in traditional Finance risk is measured based on Stock's price fluctuation in simple words if stock Stock's price changes a lot it is seen as riskier than the one that does not change much but Howard Marx sees risk differently he thinks of risk as something that could make you lose your money permanently many people avoid investing in the stock market because they're worried about its short-term price fluctuation but history shows that over a long time investing in something like the S&P 500 can make you lot more money than safer options like bonds or savings account but by completely avoiding risk people often miss out on big opportunities and sometimes lose out on Mill millions of dollars over their lifetime so according to Howard marks not taking carefully considered and well balanced risk is a risk in itself
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