저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 인플레이션 우려 속에서도 빅테크(대형 기술주)가 원자재 비용 상승과 금리 인상 리스크 모두에 상대적으로 강해 방어적으로 매수할 만하다는 주장. 발표된 CPI는 전년 대비 5.4% 상승으로 2008년 이후 최대 수준이며, 시장 반응은 제한적이었다는 진단. 경기 민감·산업재·원자재 관련주(프리포트맥모란 등)는 과거 가치주로 불렸지만 실제로는 경기 사이클에 종속된 붐앤버스트 종목이며, 5월 12일 뜨거운 CPI 이후 급락 후 회복하지 못했다고 설명. 금리 인상 우려가 커지면 고성장 기술주로 자금이 몰리는 패턴이 반복되며, 기대(선반영) 기반 반응이 나타난다고 주장. 알파벳(구글): 에너지·포장·운송 비용 부담이 낮은 자산경량·두뇌중심 모델이라 인플레이션에 강하다고 평가. 연초 대비 약 45% 상승. 마이크로소프트: 원자재 비용 영향이 거의 없어 상승 지속 가능성 언급. 애플: 강력한 브랜드와 고객 충성도로 원가 상승을 전가할 수 있고, 후불결제(BNPL) 협력 등 상방 여지가 크다고 전망. 펩시코: 가격 인상 전가력이 있는 브랜드로 분기 실적 호조, 내일 추가 상승 가능성 언급. 리스크: 원가를 소비자에게 전가하지 못하는 기업은 어려움을 겪으며, 금리 급등 가능성은 낮다고 봤음. 결론적으로 대형 기술주(빅캡 테크) 비중 확대가 인플레이션과 연준발 둔화 모두에 대비하는 방법이라는 주장.
다듬은 글
ing but to educate teach put in perspective call me 1-800-743 cbc or tweet me at jim cramer okay we know inflation's raging right now we hear from all the companies that buy raw materials from fatty oils you eat to light sweet crude that you burn natural fruit or natural gas it's all sword in price this morning we got a consumer price index number that uh actually it documents it documents what i call the house of pain inflation with 5.4 increase despite the headline the average is barely reacted down hey it took down 107 points hasn't been slipping 0.35 percent now it's not declining 0.3 and most of the time the nasdaq was in the block i mean you know this is important because we certainly saw this one coming still prices for almost everything the consumers buys have gone up from used cars because automakers don't have enough semiconductors to boost production of new ones to packaging to freight and so many so many other ones so okay what do we do what do you do when you see the biggest inflation spurt in 13 years do you run for the hills do you panic do you dive do you get under the desk because they're shooting you oh simple bye bye bye you buy big tech because it is immunized against the two scourges that wall street's worried about rising raw costs and the possibility of interest rate hikes from the fed if jay pal suddenly gets cold feet and decides to tape or even tighten out of the mythic plan i don't think powell's going to change the stance but there are a lot of money managers disagree and they're more important than i am and when we see a number like this well what they sell a lot of other things they'll still sell and they buy because they want to be in house of pleasure let me put it like this there are some huge patterns to keep repeating themselves in this market and if you get a sense of them and i know i can help you see them it's much easier to pick winners it's the world view it's the stock whisperer this spring we had a furious rallying industrials you heard lots of people talk about the market pivoting from growth to value but that was a canard that was a dumb way to look at it that confused you that was just wall street gibberish the reality was that beating down cyclical stocks or industrials were coming back thanks to a resurgent economy take a look this is the prototypical one freeport mick moran fcx largest copper mine on earth is freeport really a value stock well wait a second it was certainly a value stock here when it was traded 12 bucks last august okay you got me but then it rallied to 46 hardly value yet the people on tv kept saying it's value value here stupidity here more actually it's a boom and bust stock that's hostage to the broader economy and i've known that and i've lost a lot of money on it when i got too i got too complacent which is what people did when i was up there see as long as the fed was eager to keep interest rates low freeport in its compadres could keep climbing but then on may 12th we got a similarly hot cpi number and the industrials all got obliterated they really haven't recovered since then money has flowed back into the highest growth stocks why because money managers figured that the fed would have to slam the brakes on the economy to stamp out inflation and hyper growth tech stocks are actually what works best during a slowdown because they do well anyway it's all about anticipation here not a concurrent reaction this has a real bad feel to me sure enough we got the same scenario this morning albeit with a slightly higher cpi number and what happens those same tech stocks were from the get-go because people remember the pattern from may 12th at least at first before giving up their gains you know sky-high inflation was pretty baked in the last hour was what i call sloppy i think the techs can resume their climb in the near future now i want to look at some of the winners today okay because they really tell you a lot i'm going to start with alphabet the parent of google all right now we don't talk about this gem of a stock nearly enough even as it's up 45 for the year some of that's because the principles the principles are painfully shy some of us prac because they don't particularly care about ginning up good publicity they don't think it does anything for them think about what happens to alphabet when there's inflation oil and gas prices have skyrocketed right you agree but does alphabet have an energy problem i want you to do this after the show not now go to the google search page you visit a dozen times a day check out the bottom no one looks at it carbon neutral since 2007 i don't think they have an energy problem does alphabet have a problem with plastic and packaging so sky high no way see they got an asset light brain heavy business model how about rising freight costs oh man they hobbled so so many companies are short truck drivers like all those consumer package goods place do they have to deal with the port slowdown maybe they got some important materials waiting on ships from china i don't know where where one of the chief ports has been struck by kovid of course not alphabet barely ships anything are they bothered by the forced measure of the kiliman paint now they don't paint anything i've been out there i mean a lot of the walls are even they're not even painted it's what i call a bonanza of non-inflation then there's microsoft which broke out today for much the same reason i mean you think something could happened here no it was more of a celebration of nothing as microsoft is barely any meaningful raw cost now we know that niagara the the packaged food company had to cut numbers this morning why large part because of rising costs especially for edible fats and oils now i am not seeing that kind of pressure at microsoft maybe in their cafeteria now we've heard many companies talk about a shortage of truck drivers i doubt microsoft has any drivers except for maybe people you know guys shut them people around the campus how about apple it's got a fabulous brand perhaps maybe the best in the world best customer service you know it's got the highest score all that stuff goldman sachs reported today and they spoke lovingly of their partnership with apple on their credit card then later in the day it was reported that these two have a buy now pay later plan oh do people love buying out pay later and it's in the works i think apple's got a lot of upside with minimal downside i like outbid microsoft though it makes lots of hardware which means raw costs are an issue mostly materials but apple's customers love their products so much that the big wireless carriers have to subsidize the costs as they fight each other for market share do you notice t-mobile's up again today have you noticed that att never does anything i wonder why that is randall steven no never mind that's the old days not much in the way of supply issues at apple they've been loyal and large customers for tons of expensive materials but their products are seen as necessities not luxuries which brings me full circle to the actual winner today to pepsico raymond laguardia smart fella this morning the soda and snack maker reported a monster truly monster recorder i was quite surprised when i saw it i saw at 603 am i said gotta be a mistake got to go through this no mistakes it did have plenty of inflation throughout its entire supply chain so then how the heck could pep have a good quarter simple because the other thing besides tech that works are beloved brands that allow them to raise prices ever so slightly and pass those higher costs onto the consumer the stuff will still sell and that's a big reason why pep could value two percent today and unlike the moves in alphabet microsoft and apple that was going to have some staying power tomorrow i believe numbers have to go higher still not everyone is like pepsico many companies can't afford to pass their higher costs on to the consumer because people will rebel and that's going on all over the country by the same token not everyone can handle a sudden rise in interest rates which is what many money managers are betting on too even as i think it's very unlikely so here's the bottom line if you want one industry that's immune to both inflation and a fed induced slowdown well it's big cap tech meanwhile we've heard from a dozen companies so far in the last few weeks of the kind of pre-earning season and nearly all of them talked about how they had to spend lots of time and money going where going digital so if you're really worried about this red hot inflation number why not just buy the digitizer
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