저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
요약 보기
90세 투자자 제레미 그랜섬은 현재 AI 주식이 인류 역사상 최대 버블이며, 버블 붕괴 시 주가가 약 70% 폭락할 수 있다고 주장한다. 그는 일본 부동산, 닷컴, 2008년 위기 등 과거 세 번의 버블을 정확히 경고한 이력을 근거로 든다. 월가 내부에서는 밸류에이션 과열을 인정하면서도 대외적으로는 낙관을 말하는 구조적 인센티브가 있다고 설명한다. 그는 SpaceX의 우주 서사와 엔비디아의 실적을 과열 신호로 지목하며, 빅테크의 AI 투자가 상응하는 수익으로 회수되지 않고 있다고 본다. 버블 붕괴는 기술 업계 구조조정, 소비 위축, 레버리지 청산 악순환으로 일반인에게도 전이된다고 경고한다. 대응으로는 자산 분산, 금 등 실물자산과 현금 보유, 저점 매수 시도 자제를 제시한다.
다듬은 글
Are the AI stocks you're holding right now being touted by everyone as great companies in long-term growth sectors that will multiply your money if you hold them for five years? But have you ever suddenly panicked while checking the market in the middle of the night? With such a perfect narrative and such universal bullishness, why does something always feel off?
Your panic is justified. Because just as the whole market screams "AI revolution" and retail investors rush in, a Wall Street legend nearing 90, who has accurately called three massive bubbles in his lifetime, has privately exposed a secret everyone knows but no one dares to say: current AI tech stocks are the biggest bubble in human history, and those industry leaders you worship will crash by 70%when it bursts.
This man is Jeremy Grantham. From the Japanese real estate crash and the dot-com bubble to the 2008 financial crisis, he has stood up to warn of risks at the peak of every collective mania. Each time he was branded a stubborn skeptic or a bitter person who missed out, and each time, he was proven right.
This time, what he’s saying is even more terrifying than before: this isn't just about the rise and fall of a few stocks ; it’s a performance the entire Wall Street is putting on. Inside, almost everyone admits the risks are enormous, yet when speaking into the microphones for retail investors, they all claim the outlook is great and urge everyone to get on board.
The cost of this bubble bursting will eventually trickle down the entire supply chain and land on every ordinary person, even if you’ve never bought a single stock. In today’s episode, we will thoroughly dissect this bubble—from the unspoken survival rules of Wall Street and the historical patterns of bubbles that humanity has never escaped , to why the two "darling" stocks are the most dangerous, and finally, three practical risk-hedging principles for the average person.
This content is daring, so I suggest you like and save it now. You will gain a solid understanding on four levels: grasp Wall Street’s hidden industry rules and why public sentiment is always overwhelmingly bullish; learn to ignore misleading hype; understand the historical link between technological revolutions and financial bubbles, moving beyond the misconception that " real value means no bubble"; objectively evaluate AI’s long-term value against short-term risks; identify the underlying logical flaws in the current AI boom; and receive three directly executable hedging strategies to protect your savings and stand firm in the coming volatility without needing to understand complex financial derivatives.
If you hold tech-related assets, follow the AI sector, or just want to understand the true logic behind global financial markets, you must watch this episode until the end. Many people lose a fortune in the market not because they lack opportunities, but because they lose basic judgment when everyone is irrational, rushing in with the crowd and ending up paying the price when the bubble bursts.
Please hit the like button, subscribe to the channel, and turn on the notification bell. I will continue to provide first-hand breakdowns of forward-looking analyses from top investors, global market risk signals, and asset allocation strategies. Please share this video with your investing friends; staying clear-headed during times of mania is worth more than a ten percent gain.
Do you think there is a bubble in today's AI tech stocks? Leave your verdict in the comments section and let's see which side more people are on. Why is it that the vast majority of analysts and financial bloggers you see are constantly talking up the market? Why is there always someone telling you that now is a great time to jump in and that prices will definitely rise in the long run?
Is it that they can't see the risks? Of course not; Jeremy Grantham directly poked through this facade in an interview. There is an unspoken rule in the financial world regarding backroom voting. In closed-door meetings attended only by top institutional practitioners, anonymous votes reveal that almost all executives admit current market valuations are significantly overstretched and carry a high risk of collapse.
Yet, when they turn to face the media and retail investors, they lightheartedly claim the outlook is excellent, encouraging everyone to build their positions. Why is this the case? It is not because they lack integrity, but because of the professional risks inherent in the industry. There is an unspoken survival rule on Wall Street: it is always better to be wrong with everyone else than to be right by yourself.
If everyone is bullish and you follow suit , and the market eventually crashes, everyone loses together and no one will blame you. Your boss will consider it a force majeure event; you'll still get your mid-year bonus and keep your job. If you insist on being a contrarian, warning of risks and trimming positions while everyone is partying, and the bull market continues for another six months or a year, your clients will call you an idiot, your funds will be withdrawn, and you could lose your job immediately.
No one will remember that you were right in the end; they will only remember that you stopped them from making money. Jeremy Grantham himself was a victim of this rule. Back during the height of the dot-com bubble , he insisted on avoiding overvalued tech stocks; as a result, his firm lost nearly half its clients, and everyone thought he was old and out of touch with the times.
The bubble really burst , and countless people lost everything. History proved him right, but those clients who pulled out their investments never returned. Because for most, admitting they were foolishly following the crowd is harder than losing money. They would rather lose along with everyone else than admit they backed the wrong person or made the wrong decision.
So you see, it’s not that there are no sober people on Wall Street. It’s that most of those who are sober choose to keep quiet or join the frenzy. After all, when the car is driving off a cliff, if everyone is on board, no one will blame the driver. Hearing this, some might argue that even if Wall Street is wrong, this time is different.
Previous internet bubbles were pure concepts, but now AI can actually work and boost productivity. How could something with real value be a bubble? This is precisely Grantham’s core argument: because AI is truly great, it is destined to inflate a massive bubble. Many refute this by saying AI is real and has actual value, but Grantham’s response is that behind every fatal bubble in history was a truly great technological revolution.
It is precisely because a disruption is significant enough to change the world that it makes everyone lose their sense , attracting massive amounts of capital and inflating a bubble far beyond its actual value. He cites three classic examples, each precisely repeating the same script. The first was the canal and railroad craze during the Industrial Revolution.
When people realized trains could replace carriages and canals could streamline transport, society went wild. Everyone felt this was a destiny-changing opportunity. Capital flooded in like a tide, and railroads and canals were built everywhere. And the result? After overbuilding, most railroad companies couldn't recover their costs.
Mass bankruptcies triggered a nationwide economic crisis, and countless families ’ savings were wiped out. Did the railroads disappear? No. Once the speculators were cleared out, the low-cost railroads became essential national infrastructure, transforming the efficiency of society. The technology was sound, but that didn't stop it from first inflating a bubble that pillaged wealth.
The second was the radio and electrification revolution. Electric lights illuminated the night, and radios carried voices across the nation. At the time, everyone believed humanity had entered a golden age of eternal prosperity. Stock prices rose round after round, seemingly never to fall. And the result ?
Severe overcapacity and demand failing to keep pace with expansion caused the bubble to collapse, directly triggering a decade-long Great Depression that plunged the whole world into misery. Electrification and the radio were certainly great inventions, yet they could not avoid the birth of a bubble.
The third instance is the most familiar one: the internet. Back then, if a company added a ".com" suffix to its name, its stock price could skyrocket even without any real business. Later, the bubble burst, the Nasdaq index lost more than half its value, and the vast majority of internet companies simply disappeared.
But did the internet itself disappear? No, the surviving companies truly changed the world, but that didn't stop them from bankrupting countless investors before they changed the world . Have you spotted the pattern? Every bubble starts with an incredibly correct, incredibly great real trend. The problem is that once humans see a beautiful future, they fall into collective irrational excitement, pricing in the expectations of the next decade or even several decades into today's valuation.
Grantham’s team studied hundreds of financial bubbles throughout human history and reached a very clear conclusion: as long as an asset's price deviates far enough from its long-term trend to meet the criteria of a super-bubble, it will 100 %revert to the mean, meaning it ends in a crash—there has never been an exception.
In his view, today’s AI tech stocks perfectly fit all the characteristics of a super-bubble. Since it is a super-bubble, where exactly is the core of this bubble? Grantham specifically pointed to two star assets that global investors now worship: one is the aerospace myth, and the other is the AI core.
Why have they become the iconic symbols of this bubble? Next, we will break down these two cited assets one by one: one is SpaceX, and the other is NVIDIA. One represents the ultimate imagination of the future, while the other represents the most solid performance logic of current AI. In the eyes of most, they are undisputed high-quality assets, but to Grantham, they are precisely the signs of extreme market mania.
Let’s start with SpaceX. Grantham’s evaluation of the space craze is direct : it is a brilliant and fascinating story. Mars colonization, asteroid mining, satellites blanketing global orbit—every term sounds thrilling, as if the future of humanity is about to begin right now. The problem is that its current valuation has already factored in these sci-fi visions that may not even be realized for decades, even calculating the potential market scale as a massive proportion of the global economy.
This is no longer valuing a company; it is valuing the future of humanity. Grantham says that when a company starts telling ultimate stories about saving humanity or exploring the universe, and the market is still willing to pay for it, it’s a classic signal that market sentiment has peaked. Investors are no longer calculating based on business logic, but pricing based on sentiment and imagination; such moments are often the pinnacle of a bubble.
Let’s talk about NVIDIA, which everyone is more familiar with, the absolute core of AI chips. Many will say, this can’t possibly be a bubble, right? Its profits are genuinely rising, orders are backed up far into the future, and its performance is rock solid. But Grantham asked a very fatal question: has the money spent on buying these chips finally been recouped from end-users?
The current AI boom is essentially an arms race among tech giants. Microsoft, Google, and Meta, in order not to fall behind in the AI era, are frantically spending money to buy chips and build data centers. Astronomical capital expenditures are pouring in, and NVIDIA, as the upstream chip supplier, is naturally raking in huge profits.
But has the money these giants poured in ultimately transformed into equivalent new revenue? Has the corresponding cost been recovered from ordinary consumers and corporate clients? The answer is nowhere near it. For current internet giants, the core source of revenue is still advertising. AI has indeed improved efficiency and optimized experiences, but it has yet to create a brand-new "killer app" that everyone is willing to pay for continuously.
In other words, the current prosperity is a cycle of giants using cash on their balance sheets or borrowed money to constantly feed the upstream. It’s more like a shell game , rather than a true business loop oriented toward the end market. The fatal weakness of this game is that once the giants realize the money they’ve poured in cannot generate the expected profits, boards will immediately order budget cuts and slash AI-related capital expenditures.
As long as the top few companies reduce a portion of their chip orders, the myth of profit built on perfect expectations will collapse rapidly. After all, in the business world, no high monopoly profit margin can be sustained forever. Either demand will drop, or competitors will enter; in short, profits that grow to the sky will eventually fall back to earth.
And high valuations have always been supported by high profits; once profits turn, valuations will follow in an avalanche. You might think this is all about the US stock market and has nothing to do with you since you don’t trade stocks or buy funds. But you must realize that in today's globalized world, no one can truly stay above the fray.
Once this storm arrives , it will ripple through the industry chain, layer by layer, eventually affecting everyone's daily life. Many people think market fluctuations are a game for the wealthy and irrelevant to the working class. In reality, everyday people end up paying the price for major financial turmoil; the transmission is just less direct, and by the time you feel it, you're already affected.
The chain reaction Grantham described unfolds in three layers, each hitting closer to home. The first is the contraction and hyper-competition within the tech industry. Global tech companies, whether in the U.S. or elsewhere, are aggressively hiring AI teams and pouring money into large models, largely pressured by capital markets.
If you don't keep up, the market deems you stagnant and your stock price falls. Once the AI bubble bursts and the capital winter sets in, companies will instantly sober up. AI projects without short-term profitability will be slashed, teams will be laid off, and displaced tech talent will flood into other sectors, intensifying competition for ordinary jobs.
The pressure of this "rat race" will cascade down the career ladder— no one is immune. The second layer is the contraction of global consumption and supply chains. When the stock market falls, people's assets shrink, leading them to instinctively tighten their belts and cut non-essential spending. They save on new phones, computers, clothes, travel, and entertainment.
As overseas demand drops , global manufacturing and trade industries take the first hit. With fewer factory orders, workers 'incomes suffer, leading them to further reduce spending, which in turn hurts local catering, retail, and service sectors. Like the butterfly effect, a fund manager’s loss on Wall Street can eventually result in a quiet shop right in your neighborhood.
No man is an island; the global economy is deeply interconnected. The...Third layer is the accelerated collapse caused by the deleveraging process. Compared to past bubbles, there is a more dangerous hidden factor this time: the sheer amount of leveraged capital in the market. Whether retail investors or institutions, many are trading stocks with borrowed money.
When the market rises, leverage amplifies gains and everyone is happy. But once it drops to the liquidation line, brokerages force the sale of stocks to cover debts, which drives prices even lower and triggers further liquidations. This creates a vicious cycle of selling on the dip, where the speed of the decline is much faster than anyone anticipates.
Many get trapped before they can react, and the wealth erosion from this deleveraging further worsens consumption, creating a downward spiral . dragging the entire market down further, so don't think the bubble has nothing to do with you. It might not make you lose money directly, but it will slowly seep into your life through employment, consumption, and supply chains.
Being a little more vigilant is better than being caught off guard. Since the risks are real, how exactly can ordinary people like us protect our savings? We can't just sit here and wait, can we? Grantham also provided three very practical principles; you don't need to understand complex financial products, just follow these to avoid most risks.
Facing potential turmoil, don't panic or give up; do these three things to greatly increase your resilience. Don't seek immense wealth, just stability. First, diversify your assets completely and stay away from the eye of the storm. If you have global assets, don't put most of your money into hot U.S.
tech stocks ; where growth is highest, the crash will be the hardest. Spread your capital out, move a portion into reasonably valued, profitable non-U.S. assets, or traditional industries unaffected by the AI hype. These areas may look slow normally, but when a storm hits, they act as a safe haven and are much more resilient.
Always remember, where there are the most people, there is the most risk. Don't put all your chips on the hottest bet. Second, secure hard assets and keep enough cash on hand. You must have a " ballast" in your portfolio, like gold or silver—globally recognized hard assets. They may look unremarkable or slow-growing, but when financial order is shaken and fiat currency falters, they are the proven, ultimate stores of value for millennia—your asset's bulletproof vest.
Besides that, you must keep cash on hand. Many think cash devalues in your hands, but during a crisis, cash isn't idle; it's your lifeline and your ammunition to buy cheap assets. When the market is full of discounts, those with cash are the true winners. Third, abandon the fantasy of "bottom-fishing." Don't try to catch a falling knife.
This is the easiest trap to fall into, and a point Grantham repeatedly emphasizes. When a bubble bursts, those who suffer the most are never those who held the bag at the peak, but those who thought they were clever by rushing in to "buy the dip" halfway down. You see the stock price drop and think it's cheap—a once-in-a-century opportunity—and even add leverage to jump in, only for it to fall much deeper than you ever imagined.
A historic bubble burst means wiping out all the gains that were front-run over the past few years. The so-called "bottom" is only visible in hindsight; when you're in the middle of it, you never know how many layers lie beneath. Keep your hands in check, don't talk about "bargains," and stop trying to buy at the absolute lowest point.
When the macro trend is downward , simply avoiding reckless moves puts you ahead of the vast majority of people. Today, we started with Jeremy Grantham’s warning, unpacked the unspoken rules of Wall Street, discussed the historical patterns of technological revolutions and bubbles, analyzed the bubble logic of two star assets, covered the chain reactions, and finally offered three risk-avoidance principles for the average person.
In closing, I want to share a personal thought: Grantham has seen countless market frenzies and collapses in his lifetime, yet in his later years, he donated almost all his wealth to charitable foundations to study climate change, resource depletion, and public health—things unrelated to stocks. Why would someone who spent a lifetime battling in the world of money eventually turn his focus to these issues?
Because he saw through the essence of finance: all bubbles and all manias are, in the end, projections of human desire. We always think technology can solve everything and look to get rich quick through speculation, often forgetting our true foundation: a stable life, a healthy body, and the real ground beneath our feet.
AI is certainly a great technology, and it will surely change the world, but the path to changing the world is never a straight line upward. There will be bubbles, there will be reshuffling, and countless people will pay the price along the way. Don't lose yourself for the sake of short-term wealth, and don't be paralyzed by potential risks.
Avoiding the herd, resisting greed, stabilizing your life, and protecting your savings is the best survival strategy in any era. If you found this episode helpful in gaining some clarity, please hit the like button, subscribe to this channel, and turn on notifications for more forward-looking insights on global market risk signals from top investors.
I will continue to update methods on asset allocation, and feel free to share this with friends who invest; staying rational during times of mania is more important than anything. Would you reduce your holdings in popular tech stocks to mitigate risk? Leave your answer in the comments so we can discuss it together. Thank you for watching, and see you in the next deep-dive financial video.
Comments 0