The Fed is on hold, don't expect rate cuts at next meeting, says DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach

요약 보기

Fed는 금리 인하를 서두르지 않고 데이터 의존적으로 대기 중이며 다음 회의 인하 기대는 낮다. 2년물 금리는 9월 첫 인하 이후 60bp, 10년물은 85bp 상승했고 장기채 ETF는 가격 기준 약 11% 하락해 채권 랠리가 나타나지 않았다. S&P500 CAPE는 30대 중반으로 밸류에이션 여지가 작고 이익 주도 장세다. 신용시장 스프레드는 매우 낮으며 CLO에서 BBB 등급 쪼개기 등 2000년대 중반 위기 전조가 보인다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. you said on social media leading in that this was the most predictable quote no change in years meeting um what do you make though of what you heard the market seems to have taken this at least a bit hawkish is that your takeaway as well yeah it's a little on the hawkish side I think I mean the words of this press conference are you actually nailed it in your intro Scott it's no hurry we're not in any hurry to uh to cut rates and uh that's a appropriate I I think uh we've had a range-bound interest rate market for some time now and the 2-year treasury is about 4.25% or 4.2% and the FED funds rate is at 4 and 38 so they're very much in sync so I heard a very um wide openen view of what the next move might be uh no hurry to cut rates doesn't seem be there's any inclination to raise rates at this point in time and he's obviously focused on on the stability and the unemployment rate right now in terms of not feeling a need to cut rates the uh inflation rate has been drifting Higher by a little bit I mean the CPI is up in the high twos and it was down in the mid tws and with the commodity complex uh being above its 200 day moving average on the Bloomberg commodity index and looks like it may have bottomed out and the price of oil is uh in the low 7s and uh Trump wants to get the price of oil down so he says drill baby drill but the price of oil hasn't uh hasn't changed very much it's still somewhat elevated so what's really fascinating is since the last fed since the First Fed rate cut back in September the two-year treasury yield is up by 60 basis points the 10e treasury Y is up by 85 basis points the long Bond ETF uh is down by on price only forting about the the the coupon it's down by about 11% so we have had this very unusual move that with the FED beginning a cutting cycle we have not seen a bond rally in fact um the general high quality bond market hasn't made much progress so I I think no hurry and uh we're very very data dependent it seems like a new high has been reached in data dependency and I worry a little bit as I have periodically since the hiking cycle started and now the cutting cycle I worry that they were running into a high degree of short-termism that we're going to wait and see what the data does in just a few months ahead is what I think we're looking at but I think Market participants takeaway from this is the Fed is on hold and uh they're just going to wait for data and so what came out of this meeting was completely expected and not a lot of insight on where we're headed uh other than data dependency I feel like we we might have gotten some insight if nothing else into the psyche of the Fed chair when he said policy is quote well positioned I mean I think he made the case that they think they're in a really good place and they can afford to not be in a hurry as as he said you agree with that or do you call that into a little bit of question I think when he says we're in a really good place in terms of policy and the economy he's basically saying we're on hold and yet contradicting that he says we're above the neutral rate so the implication is that we're on hold until the inflation rate goes down and unfortunately it's probably not going to go down very much uh in the several months ahead so I wouldn't be looking for rate Cuts uh in at the next meeting certainly we didn't expect one in this meeting and so we have a relatively stable place where we're where we're standing and it kind of supports the fact that uh the market is is in a calm position right now and so is J Powell apparently there are some things that are troubling though regarding markets I notice how high the cape ratio is on the S&P 500 it's up in the mid-30s it's interesting that when Ronald Reagan took office the cape ratio was down at at about 10 and so now it's about four times higher or or eight times higher anyway than it was when Reagan took office so is it doesn't seem there's any room for valuations to expand and so it's it's an entirely earnings driven Market we're it it's to see how that develops at the same time the credit markets are very very low incremental yield versus treasuries this has been a theme that's been developing now for a year and a half and there's not a lot of room for error and in fact some things have happened if you get a little bit down in the weeds that are qu somewhat uh disconcerting because they're reminiscent of what was going on in the mid oos heading into the global financial crisis about 20 years ago and that is that we're starting to see rring of credit risk you remember is the credit ratings that screwed everything up in the subprime market back in 2007 or so well now we're starting to see in the res securitization markets of of bank loans which is called the the clo Market we what we're starting to see is retching of traditional letter rating so for example there's triple triple B rated bonds and all of a sudden they're they're retching them into uh senior triple BS and Junior triple BS why are they doing that they're doing that because the average interest rate that's paid by truning it into two pieces is lower than the interest rate if it was just a tripleb and this is a slippery slope it's only getting started now I don't think that it's an imminent problem one thing I've learned in over 40 years of the investment business is you might be seeing signs that are worth taking note of but by the time that they really develop into a consequence it takes much longer than you think