“BECOME THE TOP 1%” - Howard Marks | Stocks | Investment

요약 보기

유튜브 영상은 투자에서 초과수익을 얻는 방법으로 세 가지를 제시한다. 첫째, 공개 정보를 남들보다 더 잘 해석해 중요도를 추출하는 것(누구나 아는 정보는 이미 주가에 반영됨). 둘째, 정성적 요소(경영진, 연구역량, 제품 파이프라인, 창의성)를 더 잘 평가하는 것으로, 2016~17년 메모 '사람 없는 투자'에서 컴퓨터가 VC 사업계획서 중 어떤 것이 아마존이 될지 미리 판단하기 어렵다고 주장. 셋째, 미래 지향적 통찰로 현재 정보가 모두 알려진 상황에서 미래를 더 잘 아는 것이 관건이라고 강조. 미래는 알 수 없고 누구도 완벽하지 않으며, AI가 대다수 사람보다 나은 통찰을 가질 수 있어 상위 1% 수준이 아니면 투자업에 들어가지 말라는 취지로 마무리.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. If you want to be a superior investor, what can I can think of three possibilities? Maybe there are others. Number one, you take that information and you do a better job of extracting its importance. Now again, everybody has the same computer. They all run the same software. They can all do the same screens.

02. So that's not going to be the secret. But, you know, when Andrew was in uh college and studying to become uh an investor, he would come home on breaks and he would say to me something like, "Dad, uh, we should buy Ford stock cuz they're coming out with a great new Mustang." And my answer was always the same for pedagogical reasons.

03. I would say, "Andrew, who doesn't know that?" So the point is that if if you know something and everybody else knows it, then it's already probably uh discounted in the price of the stock, you can't gain a march by investing in the stock because everybody else has already incorporated that factoid in the price and you're being paid for that truth.

04. So you have to know something other people don't know. you have to do a better job of interpreting the information um and extracting its importance. Number two, you maybe you can do be a better job uh because you do a better job than anybody else of understanding qualitative things. Not everybody knows the qualitative and by definition uh qualitative things are harder to assess.

05. So you know which company has the best research effort, which has the best product pipeline, which has the best management, uh the most creativity. I wrote a memo in 2016 or 17 called uh investing without people about uh indexation, passive investing, uh uh algorithmic investing, and then ultimately even AI and machine learning.

06. And I said in there that I don't think that a computer can sit down with five business plans from uh VC companies and figure out in advance which one is Amazon. I think that requires a unique human insight. Of course, most people can't do it either. So, so merely taking the computer out of the equation and turning it over to people is not a but at least at least when a person subjects themselves to a sub to a quantitative qualitative task like that they have the possibility of doing something in an exceptional way.

07. So that's number two qualitative and number three is future oriented and it's if if the if all the information about the present is universally known then clearly the the superior investors will be the people who know more than others about the future. Yeah. Yeah. And you know the greatest the greatest oxymoron at all or the greatest challenge is that investing what is investing?

08. It's positioning capital to benefit from future events. That's all it is. And yet, I believe the future is unknowable. So, how do you do it? And the answer is nobody does it flawlessly. Nobody knows at all. Some people have more insight than others. And I I like to believe that that that the smartest computer in the world will not have as much insight as the most insightful individual.

09. But the the the the problem for the profession is that the smartest computer may be have more insight than 80% of people or 90 or some number like that. So, uh, the answer is you you better try to not go into the investment business if you're not in the top