저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 시장 과열 여부는 기술주에 달려 있으며, 성장 중심 흐름은 이어질 수 있다는 낙관적 시각. 기술주 전망: 페이스북, 아마존, 넷플릭스, 알파벳, 애플 등이 실적 기대에 부합할 경우 시장 우려를 상당 부분 해소할 수 있다고 봄. 특히 인스타그램 광고 효과를 강조. 반도체 흐름: 어플라이드머티리얼즈, AMD, 마이크론, 엔비디아, 램리서치, ASML 등 반도체 종목이 신고가 부근에서 상승 중이며, ASML의 호실적과 AMD의 인텔 사업 잠식을 언급. 밸류에이션 우려: S&P500 실적 성장률은 -0.8%로 멀티플 확장만 있고 이익 성장이 뒷받침되지 않는다는 점을 지적. 실적이 따라와야 고평가가 정당화된다고 봄. 거시 지표: 10년물 금리 1.76%, 유가 7주 최저 등을 근거로 시장이 성장주를 찾는 환경이라고 해석. 월가 전망: Jim Gorman, Jane Fraser 등 다보스 발언과 Jonathan Golub의 S&P500 목표가 3600 상향을 언급하며 강세론 소개. 개별 종목: 사모펀드(블랙스톤, KKR) 연초 약 10% 상승, 치폴레 880달러, 맥도날드 신고가, 나이키 신고가 언급. 세일즈포스는 과열 우려 속 차익 실현 고민 언급. 출연자 행동: 최근 일부 이익 실현 후 현금 비중을 높였다고 밝힘, 기술주 과열 신호에 대한 경계 표명. 리스크: 실적 미달 시 멀티플 조정 가능성, 핀테크·클라우드 고평가 우려.
다듬은 글
I turn to you with the question we we really asked at the top and what's your opinion on this is whether the market is overvalued in a danger zone or not well I think it depends on tech it actually depends on tech 20% of the market is tech but it's it's certainly the mind chair is so great that if you could have great numbers from Facebook which I think it's gonna have it Amazon not being kept down by the fact that maybe the Amazon Web Services has erased the bottom there versus Azure obviously Netflix I didn't think was that bad I think alphabet could be good I believe that Apple might be a real growth story so if those happen I think it's going to take up a lot of the worry and I think that everyone I'm good which is really rather remarkable because these are all in the sweet spot I think this Instagram for Facebook has really taken off is they really the single best way to advertise and I didn't think hurry or anything at all on the Netflix call the disagreeably ID so it's the key to the market okay so on that point you've got new highs today for Facebook you got new high for alphabet in terms of tech Adobe Applied Materials Advanced Micro Devices Salesforce scale a 10 core lam research micron service now Nvidia Texas Instruments you know where I'm going I mean these stocks just going up so you have a SML reporting a blowout quarterly so that gives you a lamb research cover and the note this morning basically says listen its back on its continuum it's got some new chips AMD taking a lot of business from Intel I guess what I'm saying I could go on and on because those stocks those companies could have breakout earnings and what happens is is that instead of just this whole market being on higher priced journeys multiple which we know we don't really like it when we've gotten this so-called levitation from higher multiple we like better earnings which then justifies the higher multiple that's what might be happening by my numbers Joe sp500 earnings growth thus far is minus 0.8 percent so to Cramer's point you've had a lot of multiple expansion you better get the earnings growth to back it up yet you've got people like Jim Gorman out in Davos hard to fight the stock market Jane diamon out in Davos markets in a Goldilocks place yesterday you got Jonathan Golub on the network a lot raising his price target on the S&P to 3600 they say there's more upside than you think you know bullish bullish bullish bullish and maybe it's justified maybe that's just fine Jim says that you can make a story for the stocks that continue to go up can you make a credible story for the market that continues to go up yes if you are focused on growth and I highlighted that yesterday there's a distinction between growth and value and a lot of the story is underneath the surface look at where the yield is trading right now for a ten-year it's 176 again what does that tell you to tell you the world is gonna search for growth look at the price of oil seven-week low for the price of oil again what's the signal for that so I think it's growth I agree with Jim I think it is about technology I've said that at nauseam I have also been a net overall seller of equities during the month of January and I think that's the type of behavior that leads to a higher stock market but there's other stories that are continuing the growth and momentum from 2019 look at private equity private equity has now become the new hedge fund world look at the performance of Blackstone and KKR they're both up about 10% so far just year-to-date Chipotle 880 it's trading at 880 right now McDonald's coming back once again McDonald's we thought below $200 we were going to leave that it wasn't gonna be an opportunity to 12 for McDonald's Nike all-time high pull up a chart of lenore today so there's other stories but it's all about growth I think that's where you have to focus again back to you for a second I've heard on this desk for the last you know several days people who were looking to trim some of the gains that they had rather than putting a lot of cash new cash to work in the market you run your own book of stocks well we did trim every trimmers wrong sometimes that's what happens I feel very greedy feel greedy in Salesforce you know if like Salesforce since was it he just feel greedy don't know what's happening there that could merit this run at the same time it was at 180 now I know that's the problem MasterCard I put it three or five pigs we're pigs Bulls make money bears make money pigs Hitler he jumps another 20 points but maybe that's what has to happen people realize you know what I don't have enough stock on are these stocks expensive FinTech is expensive the cloud stocks are expensive but she said her new you
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