저자: SimonSaysMoney진행자—게스트해리덴트,레이달리오,캐시우드의견소개 · 외국인
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2021년 2월 24~25일 기준 시장 과열 여부를 다룬 영상. 결론: 해리 덴트는 4월 40% 폭락을 예측하지만 과거 예측 적중률이 낮아 신빙성이 떨어지고, 레이 달리오는 일부 기술주 거품은 있으나 전체 시장은 당분간 성장 가능하다고 봄, 캐시 우드는 혁신 기업 지속 투자를 주장. [시장 동향] 2월 24일 다우 +1.3%, S&P500 +1.11%, 나스닥 +0.83%로 전날 하락 후 반등. 전날 테슬라·애플·QQQ 큰 하락, ARK ETF들(ARKK 약 -5.7%, ARKW -5.2%, ARKG -5.3%, ARKF -4.3%, ARKQ -3.6%) 동반 하락. 채권금리 상승으로 자본이 채권시장으로 이동한다는 설명. [캐시 우드·테슬라] 우드는 테슬라를 자동차·데이터·라이드헤일링 기업으로 보고 추가 매수 중. 진행자도 테슬라 600~700달러를 매수 기회로 보고 추가 매수, 신뢰도 낮은 종목은 매도해 테슬라를 더 샀다고 밝힘. 테슬라는 2020년 12월 21일 S&P500 편입 당시 주가 약 650달러 수준. [해리 덴트] 2021년 2월 8일 Strasberry Research 영상 인용: 경기 회복이 끝나고 4월경 주식 40% 조정 예상. 일본 증시 붕괴(1989)는 적중했으나 2000년 미국 증시, 2013년, 2016년 예측은 빗나갔다고 평가. [레이 달리오] 링크드인 글에서 거품 판단 6가지 지표(상대 가격, 비정상적 가정, 신규 매수자 유입, 강세 심리, 레버리지 매수, 과도한 선매수)를 제시. 2000년 닷컴 거품은 6개 지표 모두 거품, 2007년은 2개, 현재 전체 시장은 거품 아님(일부 'frothy'), 기술주는 신규 매수자·강세 심리·고레버리지에서 거품 신호. 가격 과열 지수 약 77분위(1929·2000년은 100분위), 기술주 거품 그룹은 약 350% 상승. [가상자산] 옐런 재무장관의 비트코인 비효율 경고, 머스크의 'BTC·ETH 높아 보인다' 발언. 마이크로스트래티지 약 1억 달러 규모 추가 매수로 보유량 90,531개, 평균 매입가 23,985달러. 비트코인 약 48,692달러 수준. 블록(스퀘어) 1억 7천만 달러 매수. 진행자는 비트코인·이더리움 직접 투자 또는 MARA·RIOT 등 블록체인 주식을 권장. [결론] 진행자는 덴트 예측은 신뢰도가 낮다고 보고, 달리오 관점처럼 일부 거품 인지 후 리밸런싱, 월마트·코스트코·홈디포·항공·인프라(이턴) 등 전통 기업 분산 투자 제안. 우드의 혁신 기업 투자 입장에 공감.
다듬은 글
consider this your wall street to english dictionary for understanding the year 2021 let the inflation roll until these people find work that's him not too late to sell the more egregiously expensive stocks if you want to that hey everyone somebody says money here welcome back to another video today i'll be looking at some opinions from ray dalio kathy wood and harry dent and seeing if there's a stock market crash coming up or is it just a small correction we'll go into more details in that later don't forget to like and subscribe and turn on that bell notifications i make videos on the stock market investing and hopefully we together can achieve financial freedom as a disclaimer i'm not a financial advisor or cpa please use your own investment decision this is for education and entertainment purposes only now without further ado let's get on to this video so far on february 24th 2021 the dow jones is up 1.3 s p 500 of 1.11 and the nasdaq of 0.83 so we are recovering from yesterday's fall i believe that yesterday's fall kicked out a lot of retail investors because some have a trailing stop loss of let's say 8 to 10 so they might have gotten out of their positions tesla yesterday a notable company was hit hard it's been going down the past three days apple also downed in a downtrend in the past couple days as well as the qqq which is the nasdaq so huge down movement so we can see that the tech stocks were heavily hit yesterday and because kathy woods etfs are focused on tech stock at kathy wood states we invest solely in disruptive innovation and particularly tesla was down a lot arc etfs were also down significantly we can see that rk was down 5 5.7 rtw 5.2 arc g 5.3 arc f 4.3 and rq down 3.6 on february 23rd yesterday kathy wood also bought a ton more tesla shares and tuesday selloff possibly sparking a turnaround kathy wood's action is better than any words no bubbles no bubbles no bubbles let's invest in more of these tech companies and she stated that tesla is not just a car company it's a data company a ride hailing company a high tech company and one word a disruptive innovative company don't be afraid of investing in it i bought tesla stocks i sold some other stocks in which i have less confidence than tesla so i could buy some more of tesla shares i believe that tesla at 600 or even 700 is a golden opportunity to buy because when tesla was admitted into the s p 500 on december 21st 2020 tesla share price was about 650 now tesla has been kind of going down consolidating sideways but this is a perfect time perfect opportunity to get more tesla shares if you would like while there are all kinds of explanations why the stock market especially the nasdaq was down during the last five days including these three points the bond yields are up so that capitals are flowing into the bond market powwow was testifying at congress whatever he says over there will shake the stock market tech stocks have been going up but during the last 12 months and due to the pandemic the traditional and cyclical companies were ignored a bit and down a lot now it looks like the pandemic is almost over capitals are redirected to traditional companies such as airlines cruises and etc since people are talking about the stock market bubble i would like to present some interesting opinions by some other famous investors first harry dent he has published a few best-selling books including the great depression ahead he is famous because he successfully predicted the japanese stock market collapse in 1989 recently harry dent has been talking about the collapse of the u.s stock market let's watch this short clip from youtube this youtube video is from strasberry research posted on february 8 2021 and it has over 450 000 views already economic recovery has run its course and we're about to get hit hard with a 40 correction in stocks in april my guest today is the best-selling author of various books including his latest zero hour he is the founder of hs dan please welcome to the show uh harry dent of harryden.com harry always good to be with you yeah nice to be back daniella yeah nice to see you although uh you're not bringing a lot of good news here 40 percent correction and stocks coming in april uh let's talk about your latest forecast well you know uh we we've been in a down a slowdown in the economy since 2007 we know that there are many people predicting the stock market bold or bare but not like harry dent who predicts so bravely in terms of index and timing a kind of exaggeration but i searched harry dense credentials and found that his previous predictions were not very good maybe harry does exaggerating talk about the stock market is to sell his book but still we need to listen to the voices of different people so we are cautious and investing as i said earlier den successfully predicted the japanese stock market collapsed but was wrong in three other areas the u.s stock market in 2000 the u.s stock market in 2013 and the stock market in 2016.
let's take a look at some successful investors who talk about the current stock market we all know ray dalio known by wall street as investment guru or hedge fund godfather the compounded return of his hedge funds about 20 annually and average for the last 20 years although during the past couple years bridgewater's performance has been so-so especially last year during the pandemic rey dalio bent wrongly losing more than 100 million dollars but performance in one or two years does not mean much like warren buffett's poor performance for the last few years but he is still one of the richest on the planet his annual shareholders meetings are still considered to be a religious gathering like mecca two weeks ago ray dalio published an article on linkedin and i am subscribed to him and this came up on my home feed the title was are we in a stock market bubble i found that it is very interesting and i would like to share it with you mr ray dalio has seen a lot of bubbles in his 46 year long investment so he knows what a stock market bubble looks like ray dalio measures the stock bubble with the following six measures how high are prices relative to traditional measures we talked about this a few minutes ago valuation of tech companies seems to be a bit high as compared to traditional companies are prices discounting unsustainable conditions number three how many new buyers have entered the market this one is very interesting just look at how many people especially young people open an account on robin hood weeble td ameritrade m1 finance most of them have no investing experience but a decent portion of these people have made decent returns during the last two to three years because of the hot hot stock market we will be watching a brief video on this topic in a few seconds number four how broadly bullish is the sentiment i believe that the current sentiment is very bullish just look at the postings on facebook twitter reddit and all the rest of social media number five are purchases being financed by high leverage this is very risky because some of the inexperienced retail investors use high margin to invest in high risk stocks and number six have buyers made exceptionally extended forward purchases to speculate or protect themselves against the future price gains let's watch a video that ray dalio gave at a ted talk show and i put it in the stock market and that was just because the stock market was hot at the time and the first company i bought was a company by the name of northeast airlines northeast airlines was the only company i heard of that was selling for less than five dollars a share and i figured i could buy more shares and if it went up i'd make more money so that was a dumb strategy right but i tripled my money i tripled my money because i got lucky did your investment get double or triple return during the last three months six months or was it because of your knowledge your skills your experience or your luck let's ask this question to ourselves very honestly mr ray dalio created the below matrix showing each of the measures we can see that the 2000.com bubble he gave all of the six measures bubble while in 2007 prior to the financial crisis only two measures marked as bubble and in today's overall stock market he believes there are no bubbles only some frothy but for the tech companies ray dalio believes that there are bubbles in these three measures new buyers bullish sentiment and high margin i would agree because i am new in the stock market i am extremely optimistic towards the stock market and i am not using margin but i am sure many of the viewers are using margin a lot as per mr ray dalio the aggregate bubble gouge is around the 77th percentile today for the u.s stock market overall in the bubble of 2000 in the bubble of 1929 this aggregate gouge had a 100 percentile reading ray dalia also drew two curves one for the bubble companies which give a return of a stunning 350 percent since 2020 while for the traditional companies only about 30 percent of return i assume that tesla is in the group of the bubble companies the current reading on the price gouge for u.s equities is around the 82nd percentile shy of what we saw in the 1929 and 2000 bubbles how many new buyers have entered the market a rush of new entrants attracted by rising prices is often indicative of a bubble that is because they are typically entering the market because it is hot and because they are unsophisticated this was the case in both the 1929 and 2000 equity bubbles this gallon has reached the 95th percentile recently due to the flood of new retail investors into the most popular stocks which by other measures also appear to be in a bubble how broadly bullish is the sentiment the more bullish the sentiment the more people have already invested so the less likely they will invest more and more likely that they will sell ray dalio gives this market sentiment gouge around the 85th percentile okay let's come back to this table according to mr ray dalio there is some degree of bubbles especially in the tech stock but overall the stock market is still growing at least for now and for the foreseeable future let's say six months or one year maybe we should diversify our portfolio a bit invest some portion of our money in the traditional stock such as walmart costco home depot airlines crews infrastructure companies like eaton okay i believe that harry dents prediction is a joke arc kathy woods opinions continue to invest in disruptive innovative companies invest into the leaders like elon musk is a great leader in the tesla the ev and space industry at the moment ray dalio yes some bubbles but still okay and need to rebalance a bit our investment so make sure we are managing our risk and diversifying properly let's talk a bit about bitcoin which has been hot recently the past few days bitcoin got hit because this article yellen sounds warning about extremely inefficient bitcoin elon musk also stated that btc and eth do seem high lol but the largest bitcoin holder microstrategy buys more than one billion dollars worth of bitcoin adding to massive holdings microstrategy announced it has bought over one billion dollars worth of bitcoin the purchase of 19 452 bitcoins put the company's total holdings of the digital token at 90 531.
microstrategy said the average purchase price of all its bitcoin purchases is 23 985 per digital token we can see right now if we go to the chart bitcoin is currently trading at 48 692 and this is right before the market closed on february 24th my chart presented in my previous video needs to be updated microstrategy added another 20 000 bitcoins which leads to the fact that microstrategy is definitely the number one bitcoin holder tesla is there jack dorsey square said tuesday that it had bought 170 million dollars worth of the cryptocurrency based on my reading and research i believe that crypto has a bright future and i believe that either investing in bitcoin or ethereum directly or investing in the ticker symbol m-a-r-a and r-i-o-t those are blockchain stocks as i presented in my previous video thank you so much for watching this video i hope you guys got a chance to learn what three key investors said about the stock market crash harry dent ray dalio and kathy wood let me know in the comments what your opinions on the upcoming stock market crash and what are you doing in your portfolio to get ready for that again thanks so much for watching this video and i'll see you guys in the next one you
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