저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
Cathie Wood가 SpaceX 하락 시 4억 달러 이상 매수했으나 자산 대부분 45% 하락 상태. 개인 투자자의 무분별한 물타기(buy the dip)는 장기적으로 불리하며, 하락 원인 파악, 분산투자(종목당 5% 룰), 투자 기한(6개월~1년) 설정과 주기적 재평가가 필요하다고 주장. 과거 데이터상 buying the dip 전략 수익률은 2.1%, 단순 보유는 9.9%.
다듬은 글
Cathy Wood has spent over $400 million that time shares have dropped 45% from its all-time high. She has consistently decided to buy the dip and she's not alone. Retail investors have also decided to buy the dip and studies and recent data have shown that they are doing so at all costs. So exactly what is going on here?
But more importantly, how do you know when to buy the dip or when it is time just to buy and hold or just let things go. That's what I'm going to help you decide here today. My name is Kevin. I'm a financial planner. I've managed over $140 million and more importantly, I can help you build confidence, clarity, and momentum in this economy.
Let's first start off with, in case you don't know, who Cathy Wood actually is. She is very good at her job, especially depending on the year that you are looking at. In 2020, which is when many people found out about her for the first time, she made a whole lot of money in Ark funds. She is known as someone who is very forward-thinking.
She made over 135% in the stock market with her Ark funds. She is the one who brought AI to the forefront from an investor's perspective. She was the one investing in things like PayPal and Square and again, a lot of the AI stuff before what we know about AI today. But then 2022 came along. She lost 60% when the stock market was down close to, let's say, about 20%.
So there have been instances where she has made a lot of money and she's been ahead of the curve. And so far this year, with the exception of this particular investment, she's done quite well. And obviously, no one is perfect. 2022 appears to be an outlier. But is this a time where you should buy the dip and what tools can you have in your toolbox to decide yes, I should go ahead and buy and no, I shouldn't.
I'm going to give you these stats up front because here is the biggest issue. I would argue since the pandemic we have been trained, we in the general public, just go and buy the dip. Your favorite stock falls, just go and buy the dip, don't worry about it. But I've mentioned this before on the channel, this is your opportunity to go ahead and subscribe.
Not every dip is built the same. They're not. And that is one of the biggest problems here and this may be a problem for SpaceX. I'll show you the data here, okay? Buying the dip actually isn't a great investing strategy. Going back to 1926, we have 100 years of data here. Buying the dip has only gained 2.1%.
The The data is on the screen. The The data is on the screen. Buying and holding in comparison has gained 9.9%. Which one of these Which one of these graphs do you want? You tell me. Okay? Buying the dip is is great for the internet, it's great on Reddit, it sounds good on YouTube. I might get more views by talking about buying the dip.
However, what do you want? Do you want the money or the the hashtag? All right? Now, past performance doesn't predict future results, blah blah blah blah blah. You guys know that disclaimer is in the the description. But the truth is the truth, okay? Buying the dip doesn't always work and not every dip is the same.
The thing is though, how do you decipher between the two? Here are a few things that you want to add to your toolbox. As I give you these tips, I'm going to also offer you this. I can take a look because I'm actually a financial planner. I can take a look at your portfolio and help you to give individual advice.
All you got to do is go to buildingbread.com/callkev. Totally free call. We can look at your portfolio. Again, individual advice on your portfolio for free. We can do this, okay? All right. As we go through, here are things that you do want to check for. The first thing is, why is the dip occurring?
That is extremely important because is this something that is individual to this company or is it something that's happening market wide? All right, if it's something that's happening market wide, I'm probably going to continue buying the dip and minding my own business. If it's something like interest rates, hey, interest rates changed, the entire stock market is falling.
Hey, it doesn't matter what I'm buying, everything is down. So, it's not truly a dip for that company. But if it's something that's individual, you have to ask yourself why. Why is this dip occurring? Is it because they lost a CEO? Was earnings bad? Was it a bad product? What is happening with this company or are they just losing money left and right?
What is going on with this company and why? Now, at the time I'm doing this video, it is August 3rd. Now, on August 4th, as the market closed, they're supposed to announce earnings. This is going to be quite interesting cuz we are going to find out whether or not this is good a good investment on the short term.
Now, in 5 years, we're really going to find out whether or not this is a great investment. But in either case, right now, there are a few things that are going to happen in the short term for SpaceX. Number one, there is a lockup period that's going to expire for a good tranche, a good section of the stock.
There are about 912 million shares that will hit the open market. More supply. These are people who work at SpaceX who were not able to sell will now be able to cash out. And we have research that shows that when this happens, the stock dropped 1.5%. Now, for me, if I was an owner of SpaceX, 1.5% isn't really going to That's not going to shake me that much, right?
But if I'm already down close to 45%, yeah, that that's If I invested 400 million plus, that that's that's probably going to hurt. That that's that's probably going to hurt. All right, so it's just something to consider. These lock-up periods absolutely do matter and the other part of this is when I did the video on SpaceX, these were some of the things that we did talk about.
All right, when you do any type of IPO, these are the concerns. You usually All right, you usually want to avoid IPOs for this reason. They can be quite volatile, especially in that first year. The other piece of this, if you're deciding to buy the dip or not, is you have to be diversified. In my view, you should absolutely be diversified.
You don't want to have everything in one stock and as it dips, you just continue to buy more because you are just going to consistently slide down if the stock isn't doing well. The assumption here is buy the dip because this thing is going to bounce back. The problem is if you are investing in an individual stock, there's no guarantee that it's going to bounce back.
There's no guarantee that anything is actually going to bounce back. However, the odds are if I'm investing in the S&P 500 or I'm investing in almost any index fund that has multiple or thousands of companies, it's hard for all those things to go to zero. I have seen individual one company go to zero.
You ever heard of Circuit City? And we're talking about individual companies like they go bankrupt. They fall. They What What happened to Twitter, right? It fell apart, it got absorbed, and all types of things. Like companies fail to exist. Now, in Twitter's case, it got bought and sold and absorbed and now it's technically SpaceX, right?
But in this case, right, there's a chance then there are several companies we can put some on the screen right now. You can buy the dip, it can fall, and continue dipping for several years and you may not see a recovery. Think of something like like Target. Target in 2026 is doing well, but I'm doing this from memory.
I'll put it on the screen. Target for since 2021, let's say 2021 to 2025, four consecutive years of losses. So, imagine putting money into something that consistently lost you money for that long. I still don't think you would have broken even. And again, we can put the exact math on the screen of you put 10,000 in in 2021 and how much money you would have would not have and compare that to what you would have had in the S&P 500.
It don't always make a lot of sense. So, diversifying is extremely important because if it is one of 10 stocks, one of 20 stocks, or however many you decide to have, that can be something that saves your entire portfolio. This is why I'm such a big advocate of what I call my 5% rule, where if I'm investing in one single stock, I don't put more than 5% in it.
This is why. That diversification is extremely important, and that brings us directly into the deadline piece of this. Have a deadline for what you expect. How long do you plan on investing in this particular stock? And if it continues to dip, if this does not work out, how long are you planning on sticking with this?
You you decide whatever that thing is going to be, but what I don't want you to be is the 45-year-old rapper that is consistently trying to sell CDs or whatever it is at the back of your trunk that you've been doing since you were 16. It's time to hang it up. All right, you didn't make it to the NBA, you didn't make it to the NFL.
You're 40 now. It's time to come on home. Go get a regular job. Okay. All right, that that may I'm sorry if that if that felt personal to you, I'm sorry. But the truth is the truth because whether it is a stock or not, you have to say, "Look, what I thought was true about this company, I was wrong. My research was off, I need to go and move to something else.
Now, for me, I give myself between 6 months and a year. All right, I thought something about gold, we were certainly right in 2025, but the world has changed. The world has changed, and your thesis as to why you thought something was correct may be different now. Our thesis around what we thought about crypto a year or two ago isn't exactly the case.
Your theory may be right about something, but again, the context of what you are investing in at that time can completely change. What do we think about NFTs several years ago? Where are they now? Right? This is what you have to say, "Hey, I'm investing in this. I'm going to keep buying the dip. I'm going to do X, Y, and Z." Hey, it's been a year.
It's been 2 years. It's been 3 years. Is it still down? Are you Those 3 years you could have been investing in something else that may have moonshotted you somewhere else, right? Or at least wouldn't have lost you as much money. This is why I have that deadline for myself. It doesn't always mean I'm going to absolutely sell and erase everything start the board over, but it is a time for me to go back and re-evaluate myself.
Right? Because I don't want to be overconfident and think that I know everything. It is a time for me to say, "Hey, 6 months ago this was true about what was happening in the world, what was happening in the stock market. Is this still true about those things? Is this still true about these stocks? Yes or no?" And then, you can decide to keep those things.
It's This like the common phrase about no No man steps in the same river twice. That's kind of like the stock market. And what you don't want to do is consistently buy the dip in an environment that doesn't truly fit because you only have but a finite amount of money. Yes, I want you to consistently make as much and have a consistent income stream.
However, I would prefer that income stream to be growing in a stock that actually grows for you and or pays dividends on top of that. Now, if you want to know what my favorite stocks are that may or may not pay a dividend, then I have the perfect resource for you. You want to check out these videos right here.
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