Is Palantir (PLTR Stock) going to KILL OFF Microsoft?

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CNBC 기사(2023.6)를 계기로 팔란티어(PLTR)를 분석. 팔란티어는 2020년 직상장 후 급등락을 겪었고, 2023년 상반기 약 142% 상승. 사업은 정부용 Gotham과 기업용 Foundry 두 축이며, 최근 분기 성장률 18%로 회사 목표(연 30%)에 못 미치는 기대-현실 괴리가 있음. 방산 지출 증가와 AI 수요를 긍정 요인으로 들었으나 MS 대체 여부에는 회의적이고 B2B 컨설팅-소프트웨어 혼합 모델로 봄. 영상 말미에는 유료 라이브 이벤트 홍보.

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01. how volunteer is helping hospitals with tasks that used to require spreadsheets so this article was published on CNBC in June of 2023 and this has essentially triggered my interest around Valencia both as a company and also a potential stock investment so are they really going to kill off Microsoft let's find out in this video thank you so valuations aside let's first try to understand a little bit about the company's history and also the story behind the stock itself so polentia was actually founded back in 2003 with Peter tail being one of its co-founders so for those of you who don't actually know who Peter Thiel is he is unofficially part of this group called The PayPal mafias by the media so essentially the paper Mafia group comprises of many successful entrepreneurs who essentially helped build PayPal in the much early days and amongst them are successful entrepreneurs like Elon Musk who went on to build Tesla like most of you should know and SpaceX Steve Chun who co-founded YouTube and there are many more other outstanding individuals till himself has actually gone on to build and invest in multiple successful businesses post his Paypal days making him one of the richest men in the world today so back to polentia even though Palencia was founded some 20 years ago they only went public back in September of 2020 through a direct listing so some of you might be wondering what a direct listing is to cut the long story short an IPO is when a company issued new shares and are sold to the public while through a direct public offering or a direct listing in this case they are essentially selling existing shares created and distributed without a need for underwriting so after valentia went public investors probably didn't know what they've signed up for from October of 2020 to January of 2021 polenta rallied from sub 10 to over 35 dollars a pop and that's more than 280 in the short four months subsequently Valencia lost more than 80 percent of its value from January 2021 to December of 2022 so this year alone in six months Valencia is up more than 142 percent yes you have heard it right 142 so one thing for sure though polenta is not a stop for the faint-hearted that's it I know something that is for everyone regardless of your heart condition it's the like button of course don't forget to smash the cute little like button I mean the Subscribe button is just nearby as well so back to the story what is belated story essentially Valencia is a big data analytics company that is built on a SAS business model SAS meaning software as a service so as palantir claims they do not collect or sell the data that they actually process but instead what they do is just to provide the platform for Enterprises to feed their internal data and to formulate insights so polenta actually operates two main business arms namely Gotham and Foundry so Gotham primarily engages your high level government agencies including the CIA FBI and NSA yeah pretty much all your top secret departments and that also speaks volume in terms of the trust and the relationship between Valencia and the U.S government so Valente was also one of the three firms that managed to obtain an il-6 authorization from the defense Information Systems agency alongside Microsoft and AWS and this allowed the three of them to process and to store data with classification levels up to Secret I wonder how much dirty secret of the US government they have so Foundry on the other hand is the analytics platform targeted at the private Enterprises with the same core capabilities of both integrating and interpreting data before transforming them into actionable business insights so they describe themselves as having the ability to create some sort of a digital tweet of the company's data infrastructure which then enables them to basically test and simulate different scenarios and strategies in this digital twin simulation so Palencia calls this ontology which is the study of existence and relationships so think about it if you're a Fortune 500 company CEO would you want to have such a AI capability so I hope that I haven't lost you after this mumbo jumbo so I know investors describing polentia often sound extremely smart because they name drop a lot and sometimes I find myself caught between many of these sophisticated terms so regardless as an investor I'm only concerned with one most important thing which is money or cash flow or profits however you want to see so behind all these Abracadabra see even I'm starting to speak gibberish anyway I do believe that there is definitely a demand and utility for polenta's software and services and there are many successful use cases through the various Partnerships that they have established with many of the different Enterprise customers however I still find it a challenge to truly understand how that software works so this comes on top of spending several hours on the product demonstration and explanations by industry experts on various forums so I believe that unless you're in the industry itself I think it's quite hard for you to have a solid grasp of what exactly they are doing and what is their competitive Advantage so intuitively I think potential investors can ask themselves some of these questions to essentially try to get even more data points and to understand the comparative advantage of Valencia firstly are more customers feeling the pressure to take out valentia's solution because their competitors are doing so and this is is a very good data point because if a particular company in an industry is using polenta and they feel like they're losing out everyone in that industry will stop adopting Valencia number two are customers spending even more money because they see that what polenta can bring number three is polenta able to scale their software effectively and the list goes on and through these many questions you are basically just trying to figure out one thing how much more profits can polenta actually drive home so on most counts you can actually see that Valente enjoys a steady increase in customer account increase in Billings as well positive Revenue growth and heck they even just don't get profitable two quarters back then some of you might be wondering and asking hey if everything is growing and everything is fine and dandy why is the stock price still down from its 2021 highs essentially it might be the case of a disparity between expectations versus reality so back in 2020 2021 polenta was actually growing at a north of 40 to 50 percent adjusted in income and free cash flow also song to the positive and it seems as though many Enterprises can't wait to jump onto Valencia's software platforms back then Valencia's price to sales ratio was close to 40 times because their prospects were as good as it can get post 2021 however that Revenue growth rates started slowing down significantly and in the latest quarter they actually reported an overall 18 growth coming well under the 30 annual revenue growth forecast out into 2025 by their own management team you see the disparity now 18 versus 30 expected however I still think that there are several elusive elements that continue to make Valencia an attractive company today so first things first I believe that many of you would agree that we are living in an increasingly destabilizing War so from the covet pandemic to the Russian Ukraine conflict till now even the increasing U.S China tension that is escalating by the day and since valentia has a rather intimate relationship with the U.S defense department we can probably make the case that polentia might actually flourish in an increasingly chaotic and challenging environment plausibly benefiting from a potential increase in military spending sometime soon so Alex carp the CEO himself proclaimed that valentia will be the most important software company in the world yes the most important how confident and I like this man so I did hear from somewhere that the crazier your hairstyle the smarter you are do comment down below if you agree secondly Valencia is considered one of the leading data analytics company that employs next Generation AI capabilities so the current top 20 clients spend around 50 million dollars a year which is a clear indication of the value polenta is delivering to the market if they are unable to deliver at least 50 million of value all these Fortune 500 companies wouldn't be spending so much on Valencia the concern now would be how far and how fast they can scale their business which will be translated to much more revenue and what online profits which would be accrued to shareholders thirdly polenta is definitely riding on this current AI wave where every single company on planet Earth is focusing on harnessing any forms of AI technology and it does seem like we are currently just at the start of this s-curve so this would also be an indication of how big the total addressable Market will be because it might seem as if right now only mnts and large government bodies can afford their services let's Circle back to our very first question is Valencia going to kill off Microsoft so at least for now I don't believe so so both of them have a fundamentally different business model and philosophy one is b2c which is business to Consumer while the other is B2B business to business so they are also at a very different business life cycle and vastly different scale and reach so Microsoft is also largely Diversified into software Hardware gaming productivity operating system and the list goes on they're both largely considered software companies but they are definitely of very different makeup in fact there is an entire discussion track that was triggered in the polential community around Valencia being a potential AI imposter so to me I do see palantir as some sort of a hybrid between Microsoft and Accenture there are software company first but not in a conventional way if you were to compare it like Microsoft or even Adobe yet at the same time they do feel a little bit like a consultancy company that has the superior capability to build and also tailor software solutions for their clients yet they are also not entirely just a conventional consulting company so if you'd just like to focus on a standalone product like the article suggested comparing just Microsoft Excel with a full-fledged program or platform that is being built in-house by Palencia I have no doubt that the utility of Valencia will easily Trump just a few in-house Excel spreadsheet so to answer the question I do believe that valentia will continue to push the boundaries of data and Predictive Analytics but comparing polenta with Microsoft today might not serve much meaning as I see them fundamentally striving to achieve differing objectives so I spend hundreds of hours looking the resources found in blogs articles industry opinions forums YouTube videos and even demo materials from polenta themselves and this is probably just the beginning I hope you enjoyed my simplified analysis of the company and through the research process while I was diving deep into polenta's business I've actually noted down a few key issues that I'm slightly concerned about so if you are interested in my worries of polenta today and how I actually look at evaluations feel free to comment part 2 in the comment section down below and also if you are Keen to invest or trade palential stock do check out piranha profits upcoming live online event the sixth wave where our seventh figure trading Mentor Elson chill will share how he recently made a whooping hundred and fifty thousand dollars in profit from his palantir play Slots are limited so register Now using the link in the description below so with that this is CK from piranha profits and as usual until next time keep winning foreign