저자: MartimPires · 외국인
요약 보기
포트폴리오에서 AMD 3주를 매도(25%)하고 현금 비중을 확대했으며, 매도 이유는 AMD의 높은 forward P/E와 반도체 섹터 과열 우려다. 서비스나우(ServiceNow)는 AI 에이전트 관제 플랫폼으로 보고 매수를 늘렸다. 제레미 그랜섬의 '시장 70% 폭락' 주장은 과거 예측 실패 이력과 S&P500 forward P/E 약 20, 마진 상승, 낮은 PEG 비율을 근거로 과도하다고 평가했다. 다만 OpenAI의 IPO 연기를 시장 약세 신호로 해석했다.
다듬은 글
I decided to start selling my largest position within the portfolio and decided to use that money to reallocate it to a company that I consider to be more valued. This week the portfolio ended with a valuation of 34,753, having had an appreciation of 3.29%. Today I'm going to tell you which company I decided to sell, where I decided to reallocate those resources, and I'll explain my thought process behind this decision, which I believe has had a major impact on the portfolio.
Welcome to the Zero to $ 0.000 Invested series. And if you don't want to miss any videos from the channel, I advise you to subscribe and leave a " like", because that will allow YouTube to recommend my videos more frequently. A major investor named Jeremy Grantham said the stock market could fall by 70%.
Let's analyze this rather aggressive statement and try to understand if what this gentleman said makes sense and if I agree with his opinion. Let's take a look at this gentleman's history. To analyze the claims he made, we will also look at some macroeconomic data. We're going to analyze data specifically about the S&P 500 , from its forward PE ratio to profit margins, the peg ratio, and other data that I consider important, and I'll explain what strategy I'm going to adopt now for the future.
As I said recently, we had a 3.29% appreciation this week alone, and so far this year, we are at a 15.77% appreciation. I'm going to leave two screenshots here showing the before and after of the sale of the stock I decided to sell. And tell me, if you use this Gate Queen platform, why did I have a reduction in percentage terms of value so far this year after having sold this same stock?
Yes, it is a stock that was very positive, but the returns do not change, or at least they should not change in percentage terms. But tell me in the comments if I'm thinking wrong and if you have any explanation or justification for why this happens. However, regardless of that, the goal is to increase the value of the portfolio.
We're almost at 35,000. The portfolio is performing very, very well this year. And whether it's 15% or 20%, it doesn't really matter. The goal is to make the pie grow. It was only because I wanted to compare it to the S&P 500 index. However, despite this sale and despite having reduced year-to-date performance, we continue to outperform the S&P 500 index by a fairly wide margin.
Since we are comparing with the appreciation that the SP500 has had since then, and considering that we bought throughout the year, that does also influence the return we obtained. I then decided to sell my AMD shares at $ 82, which I think was a very good price to sell at. And with this I don't mean to say that the stock cannot exceed this value, but from my perspective I believe that capital would be better invested here in Meta.
I also left some cash. And what I want to tell you with this decision is that nobody loses money or becomes poorer simply by having made a profit. AMD is a position where I've had an excellent return. It has already given me a valuation of 3.64, this value being higher because I decided to sell three shares, which represents 25%; I had 12 and now I'm left with these, and I decided to make this decision for a few reasons.
Firstly, due to the value of the guidance provided by AMD, given that the projection was for an EPS above 20 in the next 3 to 5 years. And we know that AMD tends to be conservative with the guidance it provides. However, if we apply a forward P/E ratio of 25, for example, we would have a share price of 500.
I believe the P/E ratio will not be that low. That will depend somewhat on the cycle. If the cycle threatens to be nearing its end, the P/E could actually be 20 or 25, since we know it is a cyclical business. However, if we are not seeing the end of the cycle or if Wall Street begins to think that this cycle will be different and not so oscillatory, then this forward P/E ratio may remain high, perhaps at values of 30, 35 or even 40 , and yes, it will exceed the current value of the stock.
However, since I want to achieve returns above 15% to 20% each year, I believe the best opportunity would be Meta, because it has a much higher valuation and also very good growth, perhaps not as high as AMD's, which will possibly grow above 35 % according to the guidance we were given. However, Meta is also growing above 30%, which is a very good figure, and although it is also a cyclical business, I don't think it's as cyclical as AMD.
But anyway, I didn't sell all the shares because I still believe in the company, and if the share price continues to rise and we reach 600 or 650, I could reduce the position even further and use that money for other occasions, because the truth is that with this forward PE we see now in AMD, which is the highest in the last 7 years.
I believe there is a certain opportunity cost here, in the sense that this money could be invested in companies where I see a greater undervaluation. In other words, I wouldn't recommend anyone get into AMD right now. However, this is just my opinion. Do your own study. And the third reason was simply to accumulate more cash, because the market is a bit overvalued at the moment.
We have some opportunities in specific sectors. I'll talk about that in a moment. However, there is a certain excess here in the semiconductor part, and that is what I want to protect myself from. So I decided to save some cash, which represents 4.18%. Those who follow this series know that it's not much.
I've already reached close to 12% in cash, but I think it 's always a good thing; I feel more comfortable and it ends up serving as a reserve if the market falls again. Another company I've been buying quite a bit of is ServiceNow, which I'd previously said would be a key portfolio position, and it was precisely in this company where I made most of my purchases in recent weeks.
At this time, I have accumulated 34 shares, a total of 3,343 invested, which are already appreciating by about 7%, given that our average price is below one dollar and the share is currently at 105. All this because I believe in ServiceNow, I believe in the adoption of artificial intelligence, in the use of ServiceNow and its software as a tool for agents, a control tower, as they themselves describe it, of artificial intelligence.
This allows us to align and optimize which models we are using, the workflows, the agents; It allows us to ensure that we are complying with the regulations and laws of each government, assuming some risks and hallucinations that the artificial intelligence itself may have. And ServiceNow ends up being the platform on which artificial intelligence agents manage to work.
I already made a slightly more in-depth video about ServiceNow. I recommend watching it if you want to better understand how this company works and how they went from being just a ticketing company to a true enterprise workflow machine. And, in general terms, the way Service views artificial intelligence is through the use of data itself; by using databases, we can employ the model that the artificial intelligence system or software will use to work.
This is something that Jensen, the CEO of Nvidia, already told me, and it's something I believe in and that makes perfect sense to me. One of the risks that existed for artificial intelligence is the fact that the pricing power would end up in the hands of the companies that develop the models, specifically Google with Gemini, Anthropic with Claude, or OpenAI with its models.
However, we have seen the price per token fall dramatically, and with so many companies being able to produce models and with such a large amount of investment in AI infrastructure, I believe this will become standardized and pricing power will shift to software companies. That's what I think about Service, and it's the same thing I think about Adobe.
Turning now to the claim by Jeremy Grantham, who says that US stocks or the US market could fall by about 70%. I think it is, clearly, a rather drastic stance. First , I want to show you Jeremy Grantham's background. And here are some of the statements he has made. In '95 he said the stock market was overvalued; It has gone up a lot since then, almost doubling.
Then he said he was right, four years later, he had simply gotten ahead of himself . He said again in 2000 that there was an earthquake and that the market would fall. He really fell for it, he was right; That is, of the last three times, already in '95, he was right then in the fall of 2001, he was also right in 2007, but then in 2014 he continued with his bearish statements and was wrong.
He continued in 2018, and he was wrong. He was wrong in 2021 too, and the same thing happened in 2022 . He is currently saying that the market could fall by 70%. Can I come in? It can happen. Do I consider it likely? I find it very difficult to believe that something like that will happen, and less than 70%, especially with the number of Americans who rely on their own index and with the United States government having a direct impact on it as well; Because if this index falls too much, the lives of Americans could suffer seriously, especially their pensions.
Enough with the speculation. Let's look at some specific data here . First, I want to show you the S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio. It is currently at a higher value than normal. The average here is around 18, 16 points, and it is precisely at 20 points. It is clear that before the 2021 crash, the market was really expensive.
Here in 2007, not so much anymore. In 2022, when there was also a big drop here, not as big as the previous ones, of course, but there was a significant drop here , the market was also relatively expensive, here around 22 points. It had its fall and is at this moment also , uh, a little higher, although it already corrected here in 2025 with the tariff part and then went up again .
In other words, when we look at the Ford PE, we think the market is relatively expensive, and it may well be. Perhaps it doesn't deserve to be at 20, maybe it deserves to be at 19, and that implies a small correction. Now , a 70% drop seems like a slightly more abusive demand, and that would cause the index to fall to values of perhaps 12 or 10.
And I don't see, with the gains we 've had and the companies we've had in recent years, that we'll have such a large drop and such a ridiculously cheap market as would happen if it fell by 70%. It is also important to talk about margins. This market is really expensive. However, profit margins are also higher than in the last almost 15 years.
In other words, we see here that in 2012 we had profit margins of around nine points. At this moment they are already at 14.5. And we noticed that the forward profit margins, that is, the margins expected for the next 12 months, have been in line with what actually happened. Here, for example, the decline in margins that occurred around 2021 was underestimated.
And the expectation is then that margins will continue to rise, largely, I suppose, due to the adoption of artificial intelligence. But we'll see if this trend continues then . But this shows us that the market is a little different than it was a few years ago. It is also important to look at the peg ratio, which not only gives us the earnings ratio, but also incorporates expected growth.
And when we look at this metric, we see that we have quite low values. Historically, since 1995, we have never had a peg ratio as low as the one we have now. In other words, either the analysts are very wrong about the growth we are going to have, or we are witnessing a market that is cheap, despite that Ford P that I showed you earlier.
And here's a pretty big dilemma. There are interesting arguments on both sides. I'm going to keep investing. I certainly am not going to liquidate all my positions, nor am I going to accumulate cash up to 50% like Berkshire Hathaway does. Those people are in a different situation and play a different game than I do, in the sense that the amount of capital they have to reallocate is much greater and makes the investments they make much more difficult.
However , something that is impossible to deny, and something I noticed and paid close attention to, was the fact that OpenAI postponed its IPO plans to 2027. This shows a certain pessimism regarding the market, since companies want to do an IPO as soon as they know they can receive the funds they need to make investments within their own company.
In this case, if they see that they are not going to get the rating they need, then they simply postpone. And that's precisely what OpenAI did. In order for them to achieve the valuation they want, it is in their best interest for the market to be rising. Postponing this means there could be a small market dip here.
I don't know if it will only be a 5% or 2% drop, or if there will actually be any drop at all. But it is certainly a negative sign for the market, because if OpenAI were so confident that it would get the money it needed, it would have gone public with the IPO and not postponed it. However, it is important to note that different sectors have quite different prices.
Let's look at the semiconductor sector where AMD operates and see that semiconductors have a much greater weight in the S&P 500 than they did in previous years. Everything else has gone down, obviously, to make room for semiconductors. There's the 19.7 fitting perfectly into this 80.3 to complete 100% of what the index represents.
And although this doesn't tell us anything directly, if we think a little more deeply, we notice that the index is adapting to the valuation of those sectors and companies that have gained more weight. In other words, if a company grows a lot within the S&P 500, then it will occupy a larger percentage of the index compared to what it occupied before it was valued.
In other words, semiconductor companies have grown in an absolutely incredible way in recent years. And that's not a bad thing at all. The problem arises when we look at the FordP of these companies and see some very high values. When we look at Nvidia, Broadcom, and TSMC, we see relatively normal values in relation to their growth.
At AMD we already see a fairly high value here. ASML, although it is a very, very good company and a company that I was already involved with and acquired, and then sold, also has a fairly high value. Intel with 124 Ford P, very, very, very high. This is due to the processor bottleneck. Samsung already has a very low value here, SK Hynix a very, very low value.
I asked Gemini to give me the top 10 semiconductor companies, but Micron itself also has a Ford P value of around 11. However, we must see that these memory companies are highly cyclical companies, as are the others. The semiconductor market is a cyclical market. However, memory companies are generally even more cyclical than other companies, specifically a TSMC or even an ASML or even an AMD .
If you look at the revenue and profit charts, you'll clearly see what I'm saying. Arm Holdings also has a very, very, very large valuation. This makes me somewhat less confident about investing in semiconductors and, therefore, makes me want to have some extra preference for companies like the Magnificent Seven .
Then, to have a slightly larger profit margin when they stop spending so much money, and the software companies, which are currently the most overspent companies in the market, at least in my opinion. And that's all. I wish you an excellent weekend and good investments.
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