Fundstrat's Tom Lee explains why the S&P 500 will gain at least 100 points in the next week

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결론: 톰 리는 CPI 발표 전후 S&P500이 일주일 내 100포인트(약 2.5~3%) 이상 오를 수 있다고 단기 전술적 상승을 전망한다. 단기 상승 근거: 지난주 고용지표 강세로 금리가 오르며 시장이 하락했고, 투자자들이 '고금리 장기화'에 다소 비관적인 상태다. 이 때문에 CPI가 예상보다 낮게 나올 경우 큰 상승 반전이 가능하다고 본다. CPI 전망: 근원 CPI 전월비가 0.2% 이하로 나오면 2021년 8월 이후 가장 낮은 수준으로 큰 하방 서프라이즈가 된다. 이는 물가 추세 둔화를 보여주며 단기금리를 끌어내려 랠리를 촉발할 수 있다고 주장한다. 인플레이션 세부 근거: 중고차 가격이 최근 2개월간 하락했고, CPI 구성항목 중 가중치 기준 42%가 최근 18개월 내 가격이 하락한 디플레이션 상태다. 장기 평균 30%, 10년 평균 38%보다 높아 향후 물가 하락이 예상된다. 주거비가 여전히 8%대 상승 중이지만 이것이 평탄화되면 디플레이션 비중은 70% 이상으로 올라갈 수 있다. 중국 및 미국 생산자물가: 중국 PPI·CPI가 예상보다 약해 경기 우려가 나왔으나, 중국 PPI와 미국 PPI는 상관관계가 있어 미국에도 낮은 물가가 전이될 것이라 본다. 이는 기업 이익률 개선 또는 CPI 하락으로 이어진다. 실적 및 목표가: 최근 S&P500 연말 목표치를 4,825로 상향했다. 이번 시즌 이익 증가는 에너지 부문 부진(약 -25% 기여)으로 제한되지만, 에너지 제외 S&P 이익은 전년 대비 증가해 2022년 1분기 이후 첫 플러스 전환이 나타난다고 설명한다. 시장 심리: 시장은 여전히 비관적(혐오 장세)이며 이는 컨센서스와 반대 방향이라고 본다. 일부 회의론은 수요일 CPI 발표로 깨질 수 있다고 전망한다. 리스크: 시장 내러티브가 뒤집히면 낮은 물가가 악재로 해석될 수 있으며, 중국 경기 부진이 불확실성 요인이다.

다듬은 글

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01. Tom Lee is here he has a new call for a gain of 100 points or more in the s p in the next week and this all has to do with expectations of a lighter than expected CPI reading Tom Lee is co-founder of funstrat global advisors and a CNBC contributor you started the the year more bullish than anyone I saw the Articles last week that I was referencing that you were the one bowl that was taught about 4 700 on the S P so this isn't um you're not late to the party like so many of these people that I love analysts that you know they they have a Netflix they have a neutron Netflix and a price target of 170 and then they raise their price Target to 400 and they act like all you know like no one's going to remember so you were there early this is not something you typically do though a week a one-week call short term for a three percent two and a half three percent move in the averages yes that's right um you know markets move a lot around the CPI reports so that's always a big Market event and we thought a tactical sort of opportunity was emerging because last week the market sold off because the jobs reports are strong yields really popped so investors are kind of fed higher for longer a little bearish into this week and I think core CPI could come in at 0.2 or better so it could be a huge downside surprise two or lower you mean when you say better you mean yes point two or lower yeah that's that is way out of uh of where it's been and people aren't expecting that correct it'd be the lowest since August of 2021 so it's a huge break of pattern almost a two-year low um and it would show that the FED is a is getting inflation to levels like on a monthly basis that they're trying to Target I mean a point two is two two and a half percent annualized and it might even be repeatable you might see similar numbers for the next couple of months and that that would I think push short-term rates down and trigger a pretty major route you also it has to do with used car prices which in the last two months have been everybody talked about an outlier but you also had a a statistic about how many of the components are actually in in a deflationary trend and it's like 55 versus historically that's very rare to have that many of the components in a deflation area correct yes what are those numbers so yes on a weighted basis 42 percent of the CPI basket is in deflation right now meaning it the price was higher sometime in the past 18 months and the long-term average is 30 percent the 10-year average is 38 percent so this is already far higher than what you'd expect so future inflation should fall and that's with shelter still rising at eight percent if when shelter starts to flatten out that's going to take that number to 70 percent or more hey Tom overnight China had some deflationary numbers for producer prices consumer prices were weaker than anticipated and it had people wondering if there was real concerns about the economy if there's a downturn there so how how quickly does good news from a weaker CPI become bad news uh it could based on the market mood some you know sometimes the market narrative can flip um but the low that we see PPI in China it is kind of adding to a disappointing reopening story for them uh but the good news is you know China China PPI and U.S PPI are kind of correlated so I think it does mean it's going to feed over into the U.S as lower prices either better profit marches for the s p or lower CPI you also raise your your end Target for the s p recently right yes yeah we did that uh a few weeks ago I'm 48 25 yeah 25.

02. earnings this season is coming everyone's saying that that you know consensus Wall Street Journal other places can be a rude awakening for people when they see earnings and also the recent backup in in yields rude rude this this is a hated Market this is not uh this what you're seeing flies in the face of consensus again that that's right I think there's a lot of entrenched skepticism I think some of that will get shattered on Wednesday with CPI but on earnings the the reason earnings aren't doing better is because of energy energy is now going from adding to earnings this quarter to actually at 40 a 25 drag excluding energy s p earnings are up year over year so it's the first positive year of your X energy since first quarter 2022.